At 5.25pm yesterday disabilities minister Sir Stephen Timms got to his feet in the Commons chamber to intervene on a speech by Labour backbencher Andrew Pakes.
His purpose was in effect pull up the white flag on the government’s flagship welfare legislation, in the view that a vote in favour of the government on a completely hollowed out bill was better than defeat. They removed personal independence payments (PIPs) from a bill with the PIPs in the title.
Timms is a veteran politician of 31 years in parliament, stoic and understated in nature, thoughtful and careful in speech. He was in many ways the least likely character on the stage to deliver a moment of such theatre.
But the hours before that revealed that the real drama was playing out spectacularly in the corridors and corners of the Palace of Westminster, where a defeat for a government with a majority of 156 less than a year into office was becoming a shockingly strong possibility.
This is how a prime minister who, in just a few weeks, managed to completely lose control of his government’s agenda and ability to push through its policies.
How it all began
15 June 3.45pm – Sir Keir Starmer flying over to Canada for the G7 holds an on-flight huddle with journalists where he is asked whether there will be any more concessions for Labour rebels. The answer is “no”.
“We have got to get the reforms through and I have been clear about that from start to finish. The system is not working; it’s not working for those that need support, it’s not working for taxpayers. Everybody agrees it needs reform, we have got to reform it, and that is what we intend to do.”
26 June – After more than 130 MPs sign a reasoned amendment which would kill the welfare reform bill, the government offers a series of concessions including allowing those who currently have personal independence payments (Pips) to keep them as well as set up a review led by Timms on the whole issue of Pip payments. We are told that chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, Ms Kendall and chief whip Alan Campbell “have personally negotiated” the package. Rebel leader Dame Meg Hillier declares she will withdraw the reasoned amendment.
30 June 3.30pm – Work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall makes a statement in the Commons on the changes but the hostility she is greeted with takes the government by surprise.
Furious Labour MPs claim that Ms Kendall’s statement has “watered down” what was agreed on Thursday.
Labour rebel Rachel Maskell lays down a new amendment to kill the bill which 36 rebels sign immediately.
1 July – a day of drama
10am – Keir Starmer chairs cabinet ahead of the welfare reform vote at 7pm. He stands by his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, who is facing increasing hostility from backbench Labour MPs, and there is a belief that the concessions have been enough to win the vote. Some ministers are unhappy over the poor communication of reform which has been portrayed as £5bn in cuts but in reality is £20bn in extra welfare spending.
Post cabinet – Such is the lack of confidence in the government position on welfare that already the prospect of Liz Kendall losing her job as work and pensions secretary is being openly discussed by ministerial colleagues. One senior minister jokes that nobody wants to get her job in a reshuffle. “Bit of a poisoned chalice,” notes another.
1.44pm – Ms Kendall gets to her feet to open the second reading debate of the welfare reform bill and is met with an uncomfortable silence from the Labour benches.
One party insider watching her messages: “Worse than a chocolate kettle.”
2.26pm – Ms Maskell gets to her feet almost in tears as she introduces her amendment with a much warmer reception from her Labour colleagues. An MP messages to say the rebellion is “back on”.
4.18pm – A tearful disabled Labour MP, Dr Marie Tydball, denounces the government’s reforms. She follows a long line of Labour MPs demanding the legislation is pulled or postponed. The whips and Downing Street are beginning to panic with a growing feeling that the government could still be defeated.
4.39pm – Vicky Foxcroft, who resigned as a whip over the issue is speaking, while discussions have been taking place outside the chamber to try to save the situation. Minutes later news begins to break that the government has effectively thrown in the towel and made a massive concession, removing the PIP element of the Bill.
5.25pm – Another would-be rebel Labour MP Andrew Pakes stops his speech to take an intervention from the minister for disability Sir Stephen Timms, who confirms the government climbdown.
Timms states: “During this debate, my hon. friend and others across the House have raised concerns that the changes to Pip are coming ahead of the conclusions of the review of the assessment that I will be leading. We have heard those concerns, and that is why I can announce that we are going to remove clause 5 from the Bill in Committee. We will move straight to the wider review — sometimes referred to as the Timms review — and only make changes to PIP eligibility activities and descriptors following that review. The government are committed to concluding the review by the autumn of next year.”
Another Labour rebel, Andy MacDonald, immediately raises a point of order: “I would be grateful for your clarification. We have just heard that a pivotal part of the Bill, clause 5, will not be effective, so I ask this: what are we supposed to be voting on tonight? Is it the Bill as drawn, or another Bill? I am confused, and I think Members in the Chamber will need that clarification.”
6.55pm – After more Labour MPs have stated their intention to still vote against the legislation, the government has not finished with concessions. Sir Stephen Timms adds some more in his closing speech, notably on the changes not affecting Northern Ireland.
7pm – MPs vote and the government defeats the Maskell amendment and passes second reading by 75 votes. But 49 Labour MPs still vote against the government.
8pm – The Institute of Fiscal Studies warns that the government concessions means that instead of saving money (£5bn a year originally) it will now be spending more. The Tories ask where the money is coming from.
9pm – Trade union source messages to say that the fight to force the government to adopt wealth taxes will be top of the agenda.
Wednesday morning – the fallout
7.20am – Ms Maskell speaks to Radio 4’s Today programme demanding that the prime minister “starts to listen” and brings forward wealth taxes to fill the gap in the finances.
7am to 8.30am – “Safe pair of hands” chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden is sent on the morning round to try to get a grip back on the agenda.He insists that Rachel Reeves will be chancellor in six months’ time and is not going to get sacked. He warns rebels that “you can’t spend the same money twice”.
9am – Vultures are circling around Starmer’s leadership. A senior Labour figure describes the situation for Starmer as “terminal”.
12pm – Starmer gets up for PMQs with a half-hearted cheer from the Labour benches and louder ironic cheers from the Tories. He sits next to chancellor Rachel Reeves, who appears to be weeping for the full half hour. It is later said this is because of an altercation with Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle, however, the tears appear to be more symbolic of a political situation spiralling out of control for the government with the PM even refusing to guarantee the job security of his chancellor.
Where does this end?
Already there is a debate raging on how the government will fill the financial gap. But beyond that the talk is of a ministerial reshuffle, with names like Ms Reeves and Ms Kendall in the firing line. On top of that Mr McSweeney should be worried about whether he will follow Sue Gray losing his job as chief of staff.
But the real question marks are over Starmer himself. There is now a belief that in parliament that health secretary Wes Streeting and deputy prime minister Angela Rayner are manoeuvring to replace him. Outside parliament Manchester mayor Andy Burnham also seems to be reviving his leadership interests.
The party is also struggling in the polls and important elections in London, Wales, Scotland and English councils next year. The clock is ticking for Starmer to turn his fortunes around.
