Nigel Farage is back in the spotlight, and Reform’s dramatic rise in the polls has sparked fresh debate — and a flood of questions in a recent Independent Ask Me Anything Q&A.
Once dismissed as a protest vehicle, the party is now polling at nearly 30 per cent, with some models even predicting Farage as a potential prime minister.
Whether or not that comes to pass, the momentum is real, and both Labour and the Tories are scrambling to respond.
Farage has long been known for bombast over substance. While there are signs he’s learned from his past failures, the resignation of Zia Yusuf – the day after our Q&A took place – was a departure that underscored the fragility behind the party’s outward gains.
But for all the talk of Reform’s breakthrough, its near miss in the Hamilton by-election on Thursday was just that – a near miss. Despite heavy campaigning and high expectations, the party came third in a race many expected it to win, behind both Labour and the SNP.
Farage showed up in person, received some cheers, and still couldn’t push Reform over the line – in a seat the SNP previously held with ease.
Labour’s narrow win was hard-fought and symbolic, not least because Reform had been billed as its main challenger by SNP spin.
That misdirection may have backfired, turning a likely Labour defeat into a surprise morale boost. Reform’s rise is real, but its ceiling may already be showing.
In any case, many voters seem ready to roll the dice – not because they believe every promise, but because they’ve lost faith in the status quo.
During the Ask Me Anything session, several readers asked: why do so many voters fall for Reform’s “lies”? But that’s the wrong question. These aren’t unreasonable or unpersuadable voters – they’re people who feel utterly let down.
Until the main parties deliver better public services, higher living standards, and real action on immigration, Reform will keep rising.
Below is more from the Q&A on Wednesday that delves deeper into what’s driving this moment – and what it could mean for Britain’s political climate, which is shifting faster than ever.
Q: With Farage’s history of not seeing things through, who do you think will be the party leader at the next election?
SRogers
A: It is possible that Reform will fall victim to infighting and personality clashes, as all of Farage’s vehicles have before. But it would be foolish for his opponents to rely on it, in my opinion.
Farage shows what for Labour and the Tories should be alarming signs of learning from mistakes, and of trying to run a more professional operation [I wrote this before Zia Yusuf resigned as party chair!].
It seems unlikely that a government could be successful if it were formed almost entirely of MPs who had just been elected for the first time, but it is still possible that enough voters will decide that it cannot be any worse than what is on offer from the main parties.
Q: Why doesn’t the government – or Labour, at least – more boldly challenge Farage by reopening the debate on Brexit and making him own its consequences, especially if Reform’s rise suggests they have little to lose?
AJayD
A: I think there are two problems with that line, however superficially attractive it may seem. One is that there isn’t much more that Labour can do without, in effect, rejoining the single market, adopting a Swiss-style status, which includes being part of EU free movement.
The other is that immigration is an issue that most voters care about. A lot of people voted to leave the EU partly because they wanted immigration to be reduced; it really wasn’t Farage’s fault that immigration quadrupled instead. He is entitled to say that the Tories promised lower immigration and delivered the opposite.
Q: Why has the Labour Party lurched to the right and disenfranchised millions of traditional supporters?
FaithofOurFathers
A: I think that there is a realistic possibility that Nigel Farage could be prime minister after the next election, in which case I would have thought that Labour’s traditional supporters would want Keir Starmer to do whatever was necessary to avoid this outcome. I don’t think it is “lurching to the right” to take the issue of immigration seriously.
Q: Is it not simply that Farage promises the earth to an electorate credulous enough and desperate enough to believe it?
AFTGTSIV
A: There is an element of that in all democratic politics. I wrote repeatedly before last year’s election that neither Labour nor the Tories had plans for tax and spending that added up.
But there are degrees of pie in the sky. Since the Liz Truss experiment, both the main parties have accepted the need in principle for planned debt to be falling as a share of national income over the medium term. The Reform prospectus is so far away from that that Keir Starmer is wholly justified in mentioning Truss when criticising Reform as often as he can.
Q: How does the structure of Reform differ from other parties?
avidmidlandsreader
A: Reform is no longer a private company; it is a company limited by guarantee, a non-profit body with no shareholders. It has a normal-ish party constitution, although clearly in practice it remains very much the personal vehicle of Nigel Farage.
Q: Why is the media giving Farage so much oxygen?
Nomoneyinthebank
A: A lot of people have asked a version of this question. A party that has the support of 30 per cent of those intending to vote has to be taken seriously. It represents millions of people who feel that they have been let down by the two main parties, and who feel that neither the Lib Dems nor the Greens, nor in Scotland and Wales the nationalists, have the answer.
It is true that the Lib Dems and the Greens do not get as much attention from journalists, although the Lib Dems have far more seats in parliament and the Greens have almost as many as Reform. I personally think that the Lib Dems ought to be scrutinised more, but journalism is mostly driven by what readers want to read, what listeners want to listen to and what viewers want to watch.
These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by John Rentoul at 3pm BST on Wednesday, 4 June. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.
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