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Keir Starmer’s gambit on defence spending appears to have received an instant reward after the latest tracker poll for The Independent saw Labour replace Reform UK at the top.
The survey by Techne UK saw Labour gain a point to 26 per cent and Nigel Farage’s party fall back one to 25 per cent. The Tories remained on 22 per cent, a total they have been stuck on for a month.
This week’s poll was taken in the aftermath of Sir Keir’s decision to cut overseas aid from 0.5 per cent of GDP to 0.3 per cent to bring defence spending up to 2.5 per cent of GDP.
While many charities and senior figures in his own party criticised him for undoing the legacy of Gordon Brown’s Labour government more than 15 years ago, the decision by Starmer appears to have given him a small boost with the public.
He announced the move ahead of his crucial talks with US president Donald Trump in the White House after America had piled on pressure on European democracies to increase their contributions to defence.
Officials have said that the move has already been welcomed in Washington DC although President Trump has made it clear he wants the UK to go to 5 per cent of GDP, well above the 3 per cent Sir Keir is aiming for.
Sir Keir delivered a diplomatic success on Thursday when he appeared to charm Donald Trump into cooperation on major issues during his visit to the White House.
Mr Trump endorsed his controversial Chagos Islands deal, which hands the territory to Mauritius, while the president also appeared to warm to the idea of supporting a security backstop for Ukraine, while emphasising his intention to impose trade tariffs on the EU – but not the UK.
The poll was also a boost for the Lib Dems up one to 13 per cent and the Greens also up one to 8 per cent.
Crucially, Labour are now level pegging with Reform with voters aged 45 to 55, although Reform’s vote is being boosted by older voters. Labour dominates voters aged under 45 with around a third of the voters.
Sir Keir has insisted that increasing defence spending was not meant to please President Trump or voters but because “it is he right thing to do”.
However, by removing foreign aid as a issue for debate he has hamstrung Nigel Farage and Reform as well as the Tories who had been pushing on the issue as a key differentiation between them and Labour.
The policy Starmer announced was the one Reform ran on in last year’s general election. And veteran Labour MP Diane Abbott has complained about the party “moving to the right”.
Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo said: “Our regular Westminster tracker poll brings this week a small boost for the Labour government. With prime minister Keir Starmer in Washington DC for his first meeting with the new President Donald Trump, and in a week where unexpectedly the PM announced an increase in Government defence spending up to 2.5 per cent of national GDP, we see Labour’s national vote share climb one point and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party perhaps surprisingly dropping a point.”
