With a simple majority of 156, it would be truly extraordinary if the government was defeated today on its key welfare reforms.
But that does not mean that Keir Starmer can take any kind of satisfaction over a numerical victory in the Commons today.
The fact is, in many ways he has already lost. By being forced by rebels to make significant concessions to an important part of his government’s reform programme less than a year into being prime minister, Sir Keir is in almost unprecedented territory for someone who has so recently won power.
Even with those changes – which have effectively halved savings to £2.5bn – the prime minister appears to be looking at the prospect of between 20 and 50 Labour MPs voting against his welfare bill, with many more abstentions.
The best case scenario of around 20 rebels underlines that there is now a core of backbenchers in open revolt against his leadership, and many more unhappy. This is the sort of thing which normally happens to governments after they have been in power for a significant period of time.
For instance, the Rishi Sunak debacle and constant rebellions on Rwanda and immigration came after the Tories had been in power for 14 years.
The question going forward for Sir Keir will be how many more of these rebellions he now faces on difficult reforms and future cost-cutting, particularly amid growing suggestions he may be forced to raise taxes – a measure he has so desperately tried to avoid.
If he is to survive and regain any authority, he may well be forced to have a significant change of personnel in his cabinet as well, with chancellor Rachel Reeves among those under pressure.
As the prime minister prepares to mark a year in office, these are not the circumstances he would have wanted for his anniversary.
Unless he can regain some semblance of control then there will be serious question marks over his leadership if the May elections next year continue to deliver depressing results.
