Sir Keir Starmer’s hopes to secure his much vaunted “one in, one out” migrant deal with France were hanging in the balance on Wednesday night.
Anglo-French talks on the scheme, which would return some illegal migrants back across the Channel, continued just hours before the start of a bilateral summit to be held on Thursday.
The British prime minister had hoped he would be able to announce the migration deal before the French president’s three-day state visit ended at the end of Thursday, with some speculating it would be unveiled at the summit.
However, discussions were reported to be deadlocked the night before, with the question of how much the UK will pay towards policing small boat crossings a particular sticking point.
Beyond money, further obstacles reportedly cited by aides on both sides included possible legal challenges in France as well as potential opposition from other European countries.
In response to reports that a deal had already been agreed and was set to be announced on Thursday, a government source told The Independent: “It’s speculation and talks are ongoing.”
It comes after French media reported that up to 50 Channel migrants would be sent back to France each week under a pilot scheme for a “one in, one out” deal that has already been agreed.
According to Le Monde, a trial is set to start next month that would lead to the return of up to 1,500 small-boat migrants by the end of the year. It reported that a maximum of 50 migrants a week would be returned to start with, equating to just one in 17 of the weekly arrivals. Once the trial had been shown to work, the scheme would be scaled up significantly, government sources told the newspaper.
It had reportedly been agreed that the deterrent would involve the UK accepting migrants with legitimate claims to be in the UK, such as family connections.
The Times reported that the French president and the prime minister settled details of the scheme during talks on Wednesday at No 10 on the second day of Mr Macron’s state visit to the UK, with an announcement on it expected on Thursday.
However, government sources insist details of a deal are still being discussed.
Describing the talks as “complex” and “fluid”, a British official told The Guardian that other EU members needed to also be consulted and agree to a deal, alongside France.
A French source told the newspaper that the issue of Paris’s request for money from the UK to help with the coast of policing France’s northern coast is “clearly very politically sensitive” for Britain.
However, a Downing Street spokesperson did indicate earlier on Wednesday that Sir Keir is aiming to make “concrete progress” on a number of issues at the summit, including irregular migration.
A deal would be a relief to the prime minister, after concerns early this week that the agreement was close to collapse.
His determination to “smash the gangs” has not reduced the numbers attempting dangerous crossings, which are on course for a new high.
This year so far, 330 boats have illegally arrived in the UK carrying migrants.
Home Office data shows a record number of people have made it to the UK in small boats in the first six months of this year – 21,117 – some 55 per cent higher than this time last year, and the highest total for the halfway point of the year since data was first collected in 2018.
Since that year, France has not agreed to take back any Channel migrants.
It is thought a deal could include a promise by France to implement a new law allowing French police and rescuers to intercept boats.
Three weeks ago, French police used tear gas on migrants gathered on sand dunes near Gravelines beach, northeast of Calais.
And last week, for the first time, French officers were seen slashing boats with knives to stop them from making the dangerous journey.
The Gendarme unit responsible for dealing with the small boats, the Compagnie de Marche, has denied that slashing boats will be a regular tactic, but under a maritime law taking effect later this month, they will be allowed to stop boats in shallow waters from going further.
In a speech to MPs and peers on Tuesday, Mr Macron promised the “best ever” cooperation on illegal migrants.
