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What is Starmer and Macron’s ‘one-in, one out’ migrant deal and will it work?

Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have struck a landmark deal to deter migrants from crossing the Channel in small boats.

The “one-in, one-out” agreement will see some of those who arrive in the UK illegally via the Channel sent straight back for the first time since Brexit, with Britain taking an equivalent number of migrants from France in return.

The deal came after days of talks between the prime minister and French president, with the small boats crisis dominating the agenda during Mr Macron’s state visit.

Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have agreed the migration deal (PA)

The Independent explains what has been agreed, and how the government hopes it will work.

What is the deal?

The one-in, one-out deal will see a small number of migrants – initially understood to be 50 per month – who have crossed the Channel in small boats sent immediately back to France.

The Home Office has refused to confirm numbers but said it expects the number to grow as the pilot scheme progresses.

In return, Britain will take in the same number of migrants from France, selecting those with family in the UK or strong ties to the country.

How would it work?

Migrants crossing the Channel are often picked up by Border Force vessels before landing in Dover, with most of those who arrive claiming asylum.

They will be taken to RAF Manston and served with a notice that they are eligible to be sent back to France because they have taken an illegal route to the UK from a safe country. While only a limited number will be returned, all adults coming on small boats will be served with the notice.

Special circumstances will be considered if migrants wish to challenge the notice. Using biometric data and images the UK would then inform the French authorities who can accept the migrants back but will have the right to refuse.

Ironically, the Labour government will be relying on Tory legislation dividing asylum seekers on whether they took a legal or illegal route which they themselves opposed in opposition.

Initially, the scheme will only apply to adults because children who come to the UK illegally are not detained.

Under the deal, a number, initially reported at up to 50 per week, would then be taken back to France per month and handed over to authorities in Calais.

Officials in France would then determine which migrants have strong claims to asylum in the UK, before they would be granted the right to cross the Channel legally.

Why is it needed?

The idea is that if the scheme is a successful deterrent it will break the business model of the criminal gangs smuggling migrants to the UK.

More than 21,000 migrants have already crossed the Channel from France this year – up 55 per cent from the same period in 2024 – meaning Sir Keir is on track to oversee the highest figure for small boat migration to the UK on record.

The image of migrants arriving en masse via small boats has proved politically toxic, and the PM is determined to succeed where his predecessors failed in getting the issue under control.

More than 21,000 migrants have so far crossed the Channel in small boats this year (Gareth Fuller/PA) (PA Wire)

Many of those arriving are then housed in hotels while their asylum claims are processed, which costs the taxpayer billions.

In addition, Mr Macron has pointed out that it has fixed a problem created by Brexit which meant the UK no longer had the right to automatically return migrants on small boats once it had left the EU because it had also exited the Dublin convention.

What does the government hope the deal will achieve?

Sir Keir hopes that the returns deal will be yet another tool in his mission to “smash the gangs” of smugglers bringing migrants to the UK.

The prime minister believes that by showing those considering crossing the Channel they may be immediately sent back to France, fewer will be willing to risk making the perilous journey.

Dover and Deal Labour MP Mike Tapp said on Thursday: “They need to realise there is a high risk they will be returned almost immediately to France, if we can get enough of those real life examples, where people sat in Calais have that doubt, then it starts to break the smuggling gangs’ model.”

By reducing the demand for crossings, Sir Keir hopes to pile further pressure on the people-smuggling gangs, making crossings less viable.

Will it work?

Critics immediately attacked the agreement for dealing with such a small number of migrants, meaning only around one in 20 migrants arriving in the UK would be sent back to France.

“This deal will mean that 94 per cent of illegal migrants crossing the Channel will get to stay. That is pathetic,” shadow home secretary Chris Philp has said.

He said it would “not deter anyone”, arguing the Tories’ plan to deport asylum seekers arriving in small boats to Rwanda would have halted Channel crossings.

Added to that the EU must agree that the deal falls within its rules, although both France and the UK are confident this can be done in weeks.

Finally, the UK government has acknowledged it expects legal challenges from organisations representing migrants but believes it has the legal framework to win in the courts.


Source: UK Politics - www.independent.co.uk


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