The elections of 4 November were the end of a grandiose illusion. After his 2024 victory, Donald Trump claimed he had an “unprecedented and powerful mandate”, that his “mandate” was “massive” and that his “Maga movement” was irresistible, the wave of the future. It lasted 10 months, in which he had betrayed his chief promise to lower inflation, turned the public against him on every issue and Republicans at last faced a battering by voters.
Trump’s image of omnipotence has rested upon a pyramid of dread. His ability to maintain the servility of the Republican Congress, whose members are intimidated by the danger that if they defy him he would support primary opponents to run against them, has been the political foundation for all the other forms of fear he incites throughout American institutions. Trump could not have leveraged himself as “dictator on day one” without congressional abdication. The Republicans immediately fell into lockstep. But within two weeks of the 4 November elections, only one Republican in the House voted against the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, which Trump had called a “hoax” before he felt compelled to bend in the cyclone to sign the bill – and yet still suppresses the files.
The Republicans in Congress now have another fear that places them in a terrible tightening vise. They have allowed Trump to avoid accountability and in next year’s midterms – of which these elections are an augury – they will be held mercilessly to account in his stead. Trump is the cause for which they will suffer the effect. He will not be on the ballot. Only they will pay the butcher’s bill.
The Republicans are helpless. Through their abject obedience to him they have permitted Trump to sever their organic connection to their voters. None dare venture any longer to town halls in their districts. They cower before their constituents’ wrath over Trump. He is more unpopular than any president of recent time, including himself after January 6, with the exception of George W Bush at the end of his presidency in the financial collapse. The colossus who proclaims “I have the right to do anything I want to do, I’m the president” has reduced the Republicans to ciphers. They are not public servants, but his sycophants. Their lord, however, is not their protector. The closer they attach themselves to him, the more vulnerable they become. The voters repudiate Trump by rejecting Republicans.
If the Republicans had paid more attention to his career, they would have observed that he always maneuvers to set up fall guys to take the rap. Trump has his Roy Cohns and his Michael Cohens. “He directed me to make the payment,” Cohen testified about the hush money paid to Stormy Daniels in order to shut her up to affect the outcome of the 2016 election. Trump was ultimately convicted in 2024 of 34 felonies of business fraud in an election scheme. “Michael has great liability to me!” Trump tweeted. Cohen served two and a half years in prison for tax evasion, lying to a bank, and campaign finance violations for the payments to Daniels and Karen McDougal, a Playboy model with whom Trump had an affair. “The man doesn’t tell the truth,” said Cohen. “And it is sad that I should take responsibility for his dirty deeds.” Trump called Cohen, who testified in the trial, a “rat”, a Mafia term for an informant. “The more people that follow Mr Trump as I did blindly are going to suffer the same consequences that I’m suffering,” Cohen told a congressional committee in 2019. The Republicans collectively are now Michael Cohen.
A Marist-NPR poll on 19 November sent a shock wave. Democrats held a towering 14-point advantage. Then a Marquette University poll rolled in later that day showing Democrats with an 11-point advantage among likely voters. In the 2018 midterms, a Democratic lead of around seven to eight points on the generic ballot translated into a gain of 40 seats. The latest numbers might project roughly 60 seats. The supposedly dead Democrats would easily carry a large majority. With those margins, they would also likely take the Senate.
If that seems too breathless, consider what the recent 4 November elections portend. Republican turnout cratered; Democratic enthusiasm ran high. The polls, which were weighted on the basis of the 2024 results, were distorted in showing closer races than the final counts. In the New Jersey gubernatorial contest, in the highest voter turnout in an off-year election in two decades there, the Republican vote count declined 42% for the Republican candidate, Jack Ciattarelli, compared with Trump’s 2024 total. In the Virginia gubernatorial race, the Republican vote count dropped by nearly 45% compared with 2024, while the Democratic vote fell by only 22%.
The final polls significantly underestimated the winning margins for the Democratic candidates, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey. Late polls had Spanberger leading by seven to 11 points, while others suggested a lead as narrow as 2.5 points or a virtual “dead heat”. In New Jersey, final polls had the race even closer. A RealClearPolling average showed Sherrill’s lead at approximately four to eight points, with some polls placing the race within a single point’s margin of error. Spanberger won by 15 points, Sherill by 13. The polls generally, in election after election, miscalculated the Democratic margin of victory by approximately five to nine percentage points compared with the actual results.
All of Trump’s gains were swept away in every demographic group. In the two New Jersey cities with the greatest percentage of Hispanic voters, Union City and Perth Amboy, Sherill won by 69 points compared with Kamala Harris’ 17, and by 56 points compared with nine, respectively. Sherill won all 21 counties. The Democrats picked up enough state legislative seats, including in a district held by Republicans for more than three decades, to achieve a super-majority in the assembly.
In Virginia, Spanberger outperformed Harris in more than 95% of Virginia’s counties and independent cities. The Democrats gained more than 16 points in small cities and 12 in rural areas. Before the election, Democrats held 51 seats and Republicans 48 in the house of delegates, with one vacancy. The Democrats won 13 seats and now have 64 delegates. Voter urgency to defeat Republicans was so persuasive that Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate for state attorney general, whose emails expressing his desire to shoot the Republican speaker of the house of delegates in the head were a central focus of the campaign, won by six points.
Elections elsewhere demonstrated the same pattern. In Erie county, Pennsylvania, which Trump had narrowly won, the Democratic candidate for county executive beat the Republican by 25 points. For the first time since 2006, Democrats in Georgia won statewide nonfederal offices with two candidates gaining about 60% of the vote for seats on the Georgia public service commission. Little noticed, Democrats flipped two state senate seats in Mississippi, which broke the Republican super-majority.
The claim that Trump’s 2024 election represented a fundamental realignment of American politics has swiftly turned into a mirage. He had won by a slender margin of 1.5 points, overwhelmingly on the issue of inflation, and dependent on winning the 7% of voters who decided in the last week for him by nine points, generally considered low-propensity voters. This time, many of them apparently either switched to vote for the Democrats or stayed home. The much touted newly consolidated Trump electorate has vanished. Trump in office has built no mandate. His coalition has disintegrated and been reduced to his base, which is beginning to splinter over continuing inflation, increases in premiums for Obamacare and the Epstein files.
Projecting forward, accounting for the discrepancy between the polls and the results in 2025, conservatively giving the Democrats running for the Congress an additional five points to make up for it, and assuming similar party turnout, the outcome would be startling. If that formula is to be believed, Democrats would win more than 60 seats in the 2026 midterms and capture the Senate, too.
The circumstances that produced the Democratic sweep in 2025 will not be replaced by election day next year with the dawning of Trump’s “Golden Age”. His economic damage through his draconian and chaotic tariffs, a major contributing factor to inflation and unemployment, the poisonous combination of stagflation, can hardly be unraveled quickly, even if the supreme court supports lower court rulings against his invocation of emergency authority as unlawful. The rest of Trump’s policies radically redistributing wealth and resources upward and immiserating the working and middle classes, which have had unanimous Republican support, will not be reversed. In 2026, the midterms will be fought on even more difficult ground for Republicans of an even lengthier period of economic decline.
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Trump’s absence from the ballot eliminates his attraction to the low-propensity voters that previously backed him. In any case, they have mostly evaporated, as the 2025 results demonstrated. It is a further illusion about the past election that if Trump campaigns on the stump for Republicans it will benefit them. In fact, Trump’s vote in 2024 was for Trump, but even so the congressional Republicans actually performed better than Trump. Overall, Trump did better in 198 congressional districts and the GOP House candidates did better in 237. For districts with GOP incumbents, Trump did better in 29, but the House candidates did better in 191, according to calculations derived from the Downballot.
Now Trump’s enveloping presence casts a shadow over Republicans which they cannot escape. His unpopularity is deep and settled. The more he appears next to them, the more intensely the larger public is galvanized against them, if they need the reminder that the Republicans and Trump are one and the same. The Republicans have trapped themselves, willingly so. He is their cement shoes.
The key propulsive numbers for turnout in the 2026 election are to be found among those who strongly approve and disapprove of Trump. In the latest Marist Poll, 68% of Republicans strongly approve of Trump, while 81% of Democrats and 60% of independents strongly disapprove. Those numbers can get worse for Republicans. Polarization now works against them. The numbers are inexorable harbingers of 2026.
Trump himself is an immutable factor. He is hardwired against flexibility and self-reform, which he believes is the core of his strength and appeal. He is certain that his intransigence is his greatest asset. If he never gives in, he will always win. His only road to victory is that everyone must fear him. He cannot admit a mistake. It would violate his canon of power. Any erosion of his followers’ subservience is taken as not only an unjustifiable attack on his authority, but on his very being.
Trump perceives every challenge, no matter how sensible, as an existential threat. He prizes unstinting fealty above reason. He can respond in only one way. Refusing to acknowledge the repudiation of the 4 November elections, he explodes in rage and aggravates alienation.
He must call Marjorie Taylor Greene for questioning him a “traitor”. He must shout at a Bloomberg News reporter for asking a question about the Epstein files: “Quiet, quiet, piggy!” He must label an ABC News correspondent who also asks a question about his suppression of the Epstein files “insubordinate”. He must declare that Democratic members of the Congress, all military and national security veterans, invoking the law that the armed forces and intelligence officials are obligated not to follow illegal orders, are “traitors” who should be “ARRESTED AND PUT ON TRIAL” for “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!”
But in the midterm elections to come, however distant they may still seem, it is the Republicans in the Congress who will stand alone to receive the final verdict before the people for their cowardice in collaborating with Trump and as contemptible exemplars of all his collaborators.
Sidney Blumenthal, former senior adviser to the Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, has published three books of a projected five-volume political life of Abraham Lincoln: A Self-Made Man, Wrestling With His Angel and All the Powers of Earth. He is a Guardian US columnist
Source: US Politics - theguardian.com
