The international community may be standing on the edge of a grave political miscalculation. After years of dismal and frustrating diplomatic efforts, global and regional actors continue to pursue a peace process in Yemen that risks handing the Houthis — an armed, religiously ideologically driven movement — effective hegemony over the South.

The current trajectory of diplomatic rhetoric is not an actual formula for a peaceful solution to the Yemen crisis. It is a potential blueprint for further instability that could negatively impact the Gulf states and international security. The global community continues to ignore the aspirations of the southern population and the reality on the ground.

Life under Houthi rule

The Houthis overthrew the government by military force and established their own system of authority in North Yemen, imposing complete control over the Yemenis living there. The Houthis are not simply one political faction among many; they are a heavily militarized movement whose governing philosophy is rooted in what they regard as divine authority. Their ideology does not tolerate pluralism, modern democratic governance or social openness. It is either their way or the highway.

Analysts have extensively documented the Houthis’ efforts to impose an ideological curriculum in education, reshape institutions to meet their political objectives and inject a theological doctrine into educational and civic life across northern Yemen. Under their control in the North, dissent has shrunk, education has become an ideological tool and governance has been reshaped to consolidate their religious authority. They have zero tolerance for anyone who opposes them.

To imagine this model potentially replicated in the South is to imagine the erasure of decades of social and democratic progress. The South has worked since its independence in 1967 to build a more secular, progressive and civic-oriented political culture. These gains, fragile as they are amid ongoing conflict, would disappear under Houthi rule. The South’s educational and health sectors, already strained by war and economic neglect, would regress sharply under enforced ideological control. Women’s rights, political freedoms, trade unions, free press and civic participation would all suffer.

This is not speculation. It is based on the observable reality of life under Houthi rule.

Southern resistance and self-determination

Meanwhile, the people of the South have already demonstrated where they stand. In 2015, they resisted a full-scale Houthi invasion, with thousands paying with their lives to stop the movement from taking cities like Aden. Their resistance was not driven by politics alone; it was driven by the understanding that their identity, freedoms and future were at stake. Of course, the Houthi invasion of Aden was thwarted with the support of the Arab national coalition led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Forcing the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and the southern population into a political arrangement dominated by the Houthis ignores this sacrifice and denies their right to self-determination. It also risks igniting fresh conflict and, no doubt, a potential backlash from Southerners.

That backlash is no longer theoretical. In recent developments, the STC has militarily consolidated control over Hadramaut and al-Mahra, effectively bringing the entirety of southern Yemen under its authority. Southern forces rapidly defeated the First Armoured Brigade, which subsequently retreated northward. These events underscore a decisive shift in power on the ground and further demonstrate that the South is no longer a passive actor waiting for externally imposed solutions.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has expressed clear dissatisfaction with this turn of events, issuing a statement demanding that STC forces withdraw to their previous positions. The STC, however, rejected the demand, instead calling for dialogue with Saudi authorities while refusing to pull back its troops. The situation remains tense and potentially explosive, highlighting the growing gap between diplomatic prescriptions and the realities unfolding in southern Yemen.

The implications extend far beyond Yemen’s internal dynamics. A Houthi-controlled or Houthi-dominated Yemen, north and south, would present an acute threat to Gulf and international security. With strong Iranian backing, the Houthis have already demonstrated their ability to strike beyond Yemen’s borders and threaten international shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Their influence over southern ports and strategic maritime chokepoints would dramatically increase their leverage over global trade and energy routes. This is a strategic aim for them. The Houthis are the only cohesive bastion for Iranian influence in the Middle East.

Economic priorities and regional instability

The Houthis’ economic priorities only heighten the danger. Revenue captured under their control — whether through taxation, customs or commercial levies — has been consistently redirected toward military activity, not governance or development.

Contrast this with the South, which has faced chronic economic neglect from the very international actors now attempting to shape its political future. Despite its strategic and economic importance, the South has not received the sustained development assistance required to stabilize and rebuild the infrastructure destroyed by war. This lack of support has weakened local institutions and left the region vulnerable.

Since the south has not had the economic support required to rebuild its infrastructure, and the Houthis have continued to threaten to bomb critical resource infrastructure, the government is unable to sell oil, leaving the budget with a huge deficit.

Why a two-state solution works

Still, representatives of the South have demonstrated political maturity and a willingness to engage constructively with regional partners to push forward a two-state solution. Southern leaders, most notably STC President Aidarous al-Zubaidi, have repeatedly urged the international community to recognize the necessity of a two-state solution.

This is not an ideological aspiration; it is a pragmatic assessment of the realities on the ground and the only path that genuinely offers long-term stability. The southern people have repeatedly, through political gatherings and numerous demonstrations, called for their independence.

Analysts, diplomats and regional experts increasingly agree that forcing the South into a unity arrangement dominated by the Houthis will not end Yemen’s conflict. Instead, it risks entrenching division and provoking renewed phases of war.

The international community’s diplomatic insistence on a single, unified Yemeni state regardless of political, cultural and ideological realities on the ground has become an obstacle to peace rather than a pathway to it. Diplomacy that ignores the legitimate aspirations of millions of southern Yemenis is doomed to fail. Worse, it may create the very instability it hopes to prevent.

A more honest and pragmatic diplomatic approach is urgently needed. The world must recognize that the Houthis’ rise is not compatible with a unified, peaceful and democratic Yemen. Nor is it compatible with the security interests of the Gulf states or the stability of global maritime routes. The South cannot simply be expected to accept domination by a movement it has fought, resisted and rejected at every turn.

A two-state solution may not be simple. But it is viable. It is grounded in history, in lived experience and in the political realities of Yemen today. Most importantly, it respects the will of the people who live in the South — a principle that should guide any responsible international diplomacy.

Before it is too late, the world must abandon the fantasy of a forced unity under Houthi influence. The cost of pursuing that illusion will not only be paid by Yemenis, but it will also be paid by the broader region and the international community that depends on the stability of the Gulf.

The time has come to choose realism over wishful thinking. The South deserves the right to determine its own future — and the world should finally listen.

[Kaitlyn Diana edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

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