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Why 2026 Midterm Polls Underestimated Democratic Support

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Democratic gains were expected, but surveys almost uniformly underestimated how well the left would do. Many pollsters seem to have made similar mistakes.

In one important sense, polls got the story of this year’s election right: They showed Democrats winning the House and leading in the race for control of the Senate.

By another measure, this year’s polls were among the worst in recent memory. When looking across all pollsters, surveys systematically underestimated the support of Democratic candidates, and they did so on a scale that rivaled or even exceeded the heavily criticized misses of 2016 and 2020, when polls underestimated Republicans.

Overall, national polls this year underestimated the strength of Democrats by around four percentage points. Across the key Senate races, the polls underestimated Democrats by an even larger five-point miss, compared with an average of about 3.5 points across all Senate races.

Polling misses in key Senate races

Polls generally called the winning party but underestimated the Democratic margin.

New York Times analysis in select states where five or more polls were conducted in the final three weeks before Election Day. Excluding Alaska because results are not finalized.

The New York Times

This error is similar in size to the recent Trump-era presidential polling misfires. In 2020, national polls underestimated Republicans by about four percentage points; in 2016, Republicans were underestimated by three points.

Not every pollster this year erred by so much. The New York Times/Siena Poll, for instance, did not systematically underestimate the Democrats. Neither did a handful of other pollsters, including AtlasIntel and Survey 160.

Final Times/Siena Senate polls in 2026

Polls correctly called the winning party.
October
Poll		Actual
Result		Dem. Polling
miss
 TexasD+7D+125 pts. under
       S.C.R+1D+45 pts. under
 IowaD+1D+43 pts. under
 FloridaR+6R+33 pts. under
 MaineD+6D+60 pts.
 KansasD+5D+50 pts.
 NebraskaR+6R+60 pts.
 OhioD+6D+51 pt. over
 MinnesotaD+14D+104 pts. over
 MichiganD+11D+74 pts. over

Note: In Nebraska, polling miss refers to over or underestimation of the independent, since there was no Democrat in the race.

Sources: New York Times/Siena polls of likely voters conducted Oct. 19 to 26 in Florida, South Carolina and Minnesota, Oct. 23 to 29 in Nebraska and Oct. 23 to Nov. 1 in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Michigan and Texas. Margins are calculated using candidates’ unrounded vote shares.

The New York Times

How Times/Siena polls changed

Bars show how poll results in a given period differ from the eventual results.

Source: The New York Times/Siena 2026 Senate polls. The late-June polling wave covers Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. The late-September wave includes Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas. The late-October wave covers Florida, Minnesota, and South Carolina. Finally, the November results encompass Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, and Texas. Nebraska is the only state in the analysis where the candidate was an independent rather than a Democrat.

The New York Times

Source: Elections - nytimes.com

Tagcloud: Andrews, Annie (1980- )Collins, Susan MEl-Sayed, AbdulElections, SenateMidterm Elections (2026)New York Times/Siena College PollNordone, Darline GrahamPaxton, KenPolls and Public OpinionTalarico, James

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