When Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, goes up against his liberal challenger in a presidential run-off next Sunday, there will be more at stake than just the medium-term political trajectory of the country. The vote is set to be one of the closest and most important European elections in recent years, and the result will resonate well beyond Poland’s borders.
Duda takes on liberal challenger Rafał Trzaskowski in a race that numerous polls suggest is too close to call. The final outcome will be watched closely by European leaders wary of Poland’s recent political direction, and by progressive politicians worldwide seeking lessons about what does or doesn’t work in taking on populists at the ballot box.
If Duda wins, the Law and Justice (PiS) party will be able to continue to rule largely unchecked. The PiS agenda over the past five years has put Poland on a collision course with Brussels and led the country to be downgraded to a “partially consolidated democracy” by the NGO Freedom House.
Duda has courted further controversy by making homophobic rhetoric a cornerstone of his re-election campaign, promising to “defend children from LGBT ideology” if re-elected and comparing the LGBT rights agenda to communism. On Saturday, he said that in the coming days he would propose a new constitutional amendment to ban same-sex adoption, which he described as the “enslavement” of children.
Trzaskowski, the current mayor of Warsaw, has promised to be a more tolerant and open face of Poland in Europe. He has also vowed that he would use the presidential veto liberally to stymie much of the PiS legislative agenda, unless there were major compromises from the ruling party.
A few months ago, defeating Duda looked impossible. He was riding high in polls and set to win easily. But after the May vote was postponed due to coronavirus, the polls steadily narrowed. In the first round last weekend, featuring 11 candidates, Duda won 43.5% of the vote and was forced into the run-off with Trzaskowski, who got 30.5%.
Traditional voting divides were much in evidence, with older voters and residents of small towns and villages heavily favouring Duda, and Trzaskowski doing better among urban voters. Trzaskowski and Duda are now in a race to pick up the votes of those who backed third candidates. An aggregation of recent polls by the Warsaw-based political scientist Ben Stanley puts Trzaskowski at 50.3% and Duda at 49.7%. There could be just a few thousand votes in it.
Source: Elections - theguardian.com
