A Brexit deal must be struck by next week or “we have real problems”, the Irish foreign minister has warned.
Simon Coveney raised the chances of the UK crashing out without a trade agreement, amid suggestions that the EU is preparing a ‘take-it-or-leave-it’ offer within days.
“It’s quite possible this could fall apart. The UK understands only too well what’s needed,” he was reported to have told an online event.
The warning came as talks in London aiming break the months-long deadlock were expected to continue past the end of this week – missing Brussels’ latest deadline of mid-November.
EU leaders are expected to begin ramping up their no-deal plans if there is no breakthrough before they meet, over a video conference, on Thursday next week.
The two sides remain far apart over the UK’s future state aid rules, how to resolve any trade disputes and their consequences and over fishing quotas.
Asked about prospects for a deal, Mr Coveney said: “I think it’s unlikely this week. I think it is likely to move into next week. At that point, the timelines start to get very tight.
“Reaching a deal in the coming weeks is very difficult, but I also think it is doable. No deal is in nobody’s interests,” he told the event organised by the European Movement Ireland.
Mr Coveney added: “The EU also needs to show some compromise to accommodate many British asks.”
Next Thursday’s summit of the 27 heads of state and government, arranged to discuss the Covid-19 pandemic, is now shaping up to focus on the Brexit drama as well.
“If there isn’t good news by then, then you really have to say that time is up – it just isn’t possible,” one senior EU diplomat told The Guardian. “The leaders will need to see that it is there.”
A last-gasp conversation between Mr Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, is also possible, if thought likely to make the difference.
A key stumbling block is believed to be the EU’s demand for environmental, labour and social standards to develop in tandem, so-called dynamic alignment.
The UK is insisting it must be able to re-write its rule book, but the EU has said it will not grant a “zero tariff, zero quota” deal if British companies are not operating under equivalent rules.
MEPs had insisted they needed to have a trade and security agreement in front of them by next Monday, to start the ratification process and vote on it on 16 December.
An extraordinary sitting of the European Parliament might be arranged as late as 28 December – just three days before the end of the transition period – it is now believed.
