he “crunch summit” is a long-established cliche of Brussels journalism, but Brexit talks have arguably created an even more specific archetype: the crunch summit that turns out not to be a crunch summit.
“I hope you’ve wrapped up warm!” one official quipped when I told him I was braving the Eurostar and the pandemic to come and report on Thursday’s bash. It is freezing cold in the EU capital and with cafes closed, the quiet face-to-face chats that are the lifeblood of the EU capital are having to take place outside.
Surely, with all credible deadlines long-forgotten and just three weeks until the UK crashes out of the single market, this final meeting of leaders before the city closes down for its robust Christmas break would be the important one. The real “crunch summit”.
When news broke earlier this week that the prime minister would be coming to town, presumably to deliver a stage-managed victory strut for the cameras, waving a folio of papers, the deal was sealed: this would be unmissable.
But it doesn’t seem to be working out like that at all. In fact, far from a victory lap for Boris Johnson, the word on the street (literally, given Covid regulations) is that talks are in genuine trouble and a no deal is possible. The PM’s visit was a roll of the dice.
This was all but confirmed when Angela Merkel, who usually keeps her counsel on Brexit except as a calming influence, told her MPs ahead of the meeting that Brussels needed to stick to a tougher line. Games and sophistry may be the style of Downing Street and the Berlaymont, but they are less frequently that of the Bundeskanzleramt.
Neither side appears to have much appetite for a fundamental change in their positions at a political level, and their positions at a political level are currently essentially incompatible.
Those who never believed in the Brexit project may think that talk from the government of “sovereignty” is incoherent or wooly. But however well they have critiqued Brexiteers’ interpretation of the concept, it is still the ideology in the driving seat of the government machine.
Equally, Brexiteers who never believed in or understood the allure of the single market or a social Europe find it difficult to appreciate that the people at the top of the European project do actually believe in these things.
And it is on the question of the boring-sounding “level playing field” that these approaches run headlong into each other. Lord Frost’s team thinks a tougher guarantee on standards will bind UK sovereignty, and the EU side thinks weaker guarantee will undermine its social Europe and put pressures on the single market in the long-term.
Ahead of Mr Johnson’s meeting with Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday night, those with an inside view in Brussels were warning not to expect much movement from the 27 leaders who follow the PM here later this week.
Brexit day: UK says goodbye to EU
Show all 66
One senior EU official warned that member states did not want to be “dragged into a debate” at their summit and are planning to leave things to the commission. The 27 presidents and prime minister will not discuss Brexit concessions at their meeting in the following days.
The reception the prime minister got from Ms Von der Leyen on Wednesday evening could be described as “businesslike”.
As they assembled for the customary social-distanced handshake for the cameras, the president urged Mr Johnson, with her thoughts clearly on the pandemic: “Keep [your] distance.”
“You run a tight ship here, Ursula, and quite right too,” Mr Johnson replied. Officials say that fish – in this case turbot and scallops – was on the menu for the dinner, in more ways than one.
Perhaps eventually, one side will relent, with some face-saving camouflage, or both sides will bend their principles to the extent that they can live side-by-side in the same agreement. But that is far from guaranteed, and there is a real chance of no deal on 31 December.
