A key government adviser has attacked the decision to make mask-wearing voluntary even in crowded spaces, warning it “probably won’t do any good”.
Graham Medley, who chairs the SPI-M modelling group, said the Covid-fighting benefits would be lost if 30 per cent of people now refuse to put on face coverings.
“There is evidence to suggest that it does good, but only if everybody does it,” Professor Medley warned.
He said he understood the government’s “reluctance” to continue with the legal requirement, but added: “On the other hand, if it’s not mandated it probably won’t do any good.”
Professor Medley also predicted that the third wave of coronavirus now underway – and with almost all Covid legal rules to be removed – could last six weeks and heap a “considerable burden” on the NHS.
New modelling from the Sage advisory group suggests between 1,000 and 2,000 hospital admissions a day in England, with up to 200 daily deaths now thought to be likely.
And experts from the University of Warwick estimate around 33,700 deaths by June next year, depending on how the public responds to curbs being lifted next week.
“We’ve never seen a peak before that hasn’t been controlled,” Professor Medley told BBC Radio 4, stressing the uncharted territory ahead.
“The intention is not to introduce a lockdown for this peak. Then we are going to see a natural peak and that may well be long and disseminated.
“So, even if we don’t get up to very high numbers, the numbers that we get up to might last for several weeks, six weeks or so, in which case there’s still a considerable burden on healthcare.
“Although we might not get over 2,000 [hospital] admissions a day, if that lasts six weeks, then that’s a lot of people.”
The government has stepped back from its triumphant talk of ‘Freedom Day’ next Monday, which saw some ministers vowing to rip off their masks as soon as they were allowed.
Instead, face coverings will still be recommended – but not legally required – in enclosed and crowded spaces, on buses and trains and indoors, where there is poor ventilation.
“We expect and recommend that people wear a face covering in crowded and enclosed spaces where you come into contact with those you don’t normally meet, such as on public transport,” Boris Johnson said.
Labour has attacked the shift to voluntary face coverings, despite supporting the rest of the decision to complete the roadmap by moving to step 4.
It criticised Sajid Javid, the health secretary, for “a high risk, indeed fatalistic approach,” claiming that “instead of caution, he’s pushing his foot down on the accelerator while throwing the seat belts off”.
