Boris Johnson is facing a furious backlash from northern Tory MPs if he breaks his promise to build a new railway line for the north of England.
Mr Johnson and transport secretary Grant Shapps are expected to unveil the government’s Integrated Rail Review on Thursday, billing it as “the biggest ever” public investment in the rail network.
But despite promising a new line, the prime minister is now expected to scale back the plans and green-light a cheaper series of piecemeal upgrades, following pressure from the Treasury to cut costs.
Northern transport bosses said leaks of the plan were “deeply worrying”, while rail experts said the expected cuts could leave trains in the region more overcrowded than ever.
The Independent understands that the landmark rail plan was – unusually – still being worked on by officials on the eve of its unveiling, amid jitters in Whitehall that its contents could provoke a furious backlash.
Northern Tory MPs on Wednesday broke cover and urged Mr Johnson to stand by his pledges to the region. Shipley MP Philip Davies said dropping Northern Powerhouse Rail, also known as HS3, would “be a massive disappointment and a huge missed opportunity”.
Meanwhile Jake Berry, the chair of the Northern Research Group, confronted Mr Johnson at PMQs, asking: “Were the voters in the north right to take the prime minister at his word?”
Martin Tugwell, chief executive of Transport for the North, told The Independent: “We are aware of speculation on the details of what may or may not be contained within the Integrated Rail Plan.
“If the rumours are true, then it is deeply worrying because it means we won’t have the benefit of that comprehensive transformation of the rail network that will make all the difference to our region’s people and businesses.
“We currently have a Victorian, two-track railway carrying a lot of trains and we need to make this step-change now, to ensure we create a rail network fit for the future.
“That means investing in new lines and stations, as well as improving the existing ones. If all we are doing is a little bit of a tweak here and there, then it is probably going to be more disruptive and we will not get that transformational change.”
Mr Tugwell said the full Northern Powerhouse Rail plan had been developed “as a co-client with the Government” and that it was “fundamental” to upgrading the region’s transport network and economy.
Rail experts backed up the warnings and said cuts to the schemes imposed by the Treasury could leave the region’s transport network crippled and more overcrowded that ever.
Gareth Dennis, a rail engineer and writer, told The Independent that the various leaks pointed to “a full cancellation of the eastern leg of HS2 between Birmingham, the East Midlands and Yorkshire, and of the new high speed line across the Pennines linking Liverpool, Manchester, Bradford and Leeds”.
He added: “Whilst government seems to be trying to suggest that upgrades to the existing network will provide almost the same benefits, it cannot be overstated how incorrect this is.
“High-speed segregation, where fast trains are put on their own new tracks to free up capacity for more useful local, regional and freight services, is not something that can be delivered partially. It’s all or nothing.
“Running faster trains on the existing network will actually result in a railway that can carry fewer passengers and less freight than it can today.”
William Barter, an independent consultant in rail operations and planning and fellow of the Chartered Institution of Railway Operators, meanwhile warned that cutting corners on HS2 could store up costs and capacity issues for later, which would be “expensive to resolve”.
He told The Independent that failing to deliver small but important parts of the scheme, such as a link to the west coast mainline at Golborne and to the east coast mainline south of York, could leave services “crippled”, with journeys left “slow and complex”.
The cuts are expected to fall most heavily on schemes serving the north of England, with the Midlands given more of what it asked for – including potentially the Midland Hub plan to improve local services around Birmingham.
But the eastern leg of HS2, linking Birmingham with Leeds via the East Midlands and Yorkshire, is expected to be partially re-routed along existing railway lines, limiting its capacity.
And the HS3 plan for an east-west line is expected to involve little or no new lines, with upgrades instead suggested to the existing route.
In comments briefed out ahead of Thursday’s launch, the prime minister said: “If we are to see levelling up in action now, we must rapidly transform the services that matter to people most.
“That’s why the Integrated Rail Plan will be the biggest transport investment programme in a century, delivering meaningful transport connections for more passengers across the country, more quickly – with both high-speed journeys and better local services, it will ensure no town or city is left behind.”
The transport secretary added that “previous plans for rail schemes drawn up a decade ago … no longer fit the way we travel today”.
Mr Shapps added: “Our plan will deliver a network that is fit for passengers today and for future generations – a network that works for every community and every passenger, right across the UK.”
