Boris Johnson faces a crunch decision on Monday on whether to trigger new coronavirus restrictions to prevent a renewed wave of Omicron infections around the new year.
The prime minister will be briefed by chief medical officer Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance on the latest data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths for the first time in three days, after a break for Christmas.
A crucial issue will be whether daily hospital admissions have breached 400 in the hotspot of London – a number that is thought to be an informal threshold for further action.
Mr Johnson has promised to recall parliament for a vote on any new legal curbs on social and economic activity, giving him up to 72 hours to secure cabinet approval and force any restrictions into law ahead of the traditional party night of New Year’s Eve, viewed by scientists as a moment of maximum peril for virus spread.
If the PM decides the data shows that the NHS is at risk of being overwhelmed, he is likely to call a meeting of the government’s Covid-O committee, or a full cabinet, to approve emergency moves. An announcement of proposed new restrictions could be made as early as Tuesday.
England currently has lesser restrictions than Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, after the cabinet rejected recommendations for action from Prof Whitty last week.
Encouraging figures on Monday could allow Mr Johnson to stick to his relatively mild plan B restrictions through the new year, mandating face-coverings in many public places and Covid passes for entry to mass-audience venues like nightclubs and sports stadiums.
But if the soaring number of Omicron infections appears to be translating into more hospital admissions, more patients in intensive care and a higher number of deaths, he is likely to try once more to persuade fellow ministers to accept tougher restrictions.
This “plan C” could involve a return to the measures seen during the step 2 phase of emergence from lockdown in the spring, including a ban on indoor mixing, outdoor service only in pubs and restaurants, and the “rule of six” for outdoor gatherings.
Modelling by the PM’s scientific advisory group, Sage, found that a two- to three-week “circuit breaker” based on such measures could cut deaths by 18 per cent, while keeping the restrictions in place until the end of March could cut deaths by 39 per cent.
However, if the data suggests Omicron is approaching its peak, the PM could dodge the danger of another rebellion by Tory MPs by issuing stronger guidance to the public, warning people not to mix indoors.
This would not require new regulations or a recall of the Commons from its festive break, but would provoke howls of rage from the hospitality industry, which fears “lockdown by stealth” as customers decide to stay at home without being required to do so by law.
The latest interim data issued by the Office for National Statistics for the period to 19 December showed that an estimated one person in 20 in London had Covid-19. Across the UK, some 1.7 million people were estimated to be infected, with increases in all age groups and all areas of England in the previous week.
Hospital admissions in the capital reached 386 on 22 December, but it is not yet clear whether they have since moved beyond 400.
Hopes that further restrictions could be avoided were buoyed last week by a UK Health Security Agency study, which found that people catching Omicron are 50 to 70 per cent less likely to need hospital care than those suffering from earlier strains of Covid-19, such as Delta.
But scientists are warning against complacency over the supposedly “milder” variant, pointing out that Omicron’s extreme transmissibility means that many more people are likely to become infected with it.
Epidemiologist Deepti Gurdasani, of Queen Mary University London, warned: “In simple terms, because Omicron can escape immunity from past infections and vaccines, your protection against infection with Omicron is vastly lower than with Delta.
“All the ‘mild’ takes compare Omicron hospitalisations once infected, without accounting for the fact that Omicron is infecting people who are vaccinated and had past infection, who wouldn’t have been infected with Delta at all because they were protected.
“So it’s increasing risk, rather than reducing it, by infecting people who wouldn’t have been infected with Delta, which means we are actually at higher risk of severe disease because of lower protection from infection with vaccination.
“A huge part of the Omicron advantage is being able to infect people with previous immunity that Delta wouldn’t have been able to penetrate. To argue that this somehow leads to a reduction in risk is, frankly, nuts.”
Meanwhile, mobile phone companies collaborated with the Department of Health in a Boxing Day drive to send out appeals by text message for people to come forward for the booster vaccination, which is believed to greatly reduce the risk from Omicron.
Health and social care secretary Sajid Javid said: “It has never been as important to get protected with the booster – so whether it is in between turkey sandwiches or before the Boxing Day fixtures, whatever your traditions, make the booster a part of them this year.
“Millions of vaccine slots are available through the festive calendar, so if you’re not boosted and you get this text, take up the offer and get vaccinated.”
Amid reports that the government is determined to reopen schools following the Christmas break, there were renewed calls for better measures to reduce the risk of spreading Covid in the classroom.
Mathematical biologist Kit Yates of the University of Bath asked: “Why is the only plan to keep schools open a plan which involves recruiting vulnerable retired teachers back to the classroom to deliver patchwork coverage?
“Surely, two years in, we can do better than that: Ventilation, masks, filters, vaccines? It’s past time to start putting in mitigations in schools.
“Sure, even if we start now they won’t all be completed by the time schools go back, but we will have made a start. If you don’t start, you can’t hope to finish.”
