Boris Johnson has been warned against a show-of-strength confrontation with Brussels as he seeks to shore up support among Tory MPs following his near defeat in Monday’s confidence vote.
The prime minister has done little publicly to reassure centrist critics since 40 per cent of the parliamentary party demanded his removal, instead vowing to “bash on” with plans for tax cuts, a Thatcherite right-to-buy policy, and legislation to override the Northern Ireland protocol.
One former minister told The Independent he expected a lurch to the right as Johnson offers red meat to MPs who are demanding tax cuts and a tough line on Brexit as the price of their support.
But there were warnings that this could backfire, fuelling opposition to Johnson among traditionalist Conservatives who are horrified at the prospect of the government breaching international law by way of new legislation, expected to be published within days, that seeks to tear up the protocol.
Dublin has already voiced concern that the government’s position has been hardened as a sop to Tory critics. The Irish prime minister, Micheal Martin, urged Mr Johnson to return to negotiations with the European Commission, warning that “unilateralism will not work”.
Comparing Mr Johnson to the giant gorilla in the 1933 movie classic, a former cabinet minister predicted that the PM would veer to the right in a show of strength that would please hardline Brexiteers but anger “blue wall” Tories whose southern seats are vulnerable to challenge by the Liberal Democrats.
“He is about to push the King Kong strategy for a few days, or a week or two,” said the MP, who has not called publicly for Mr Johnson to go. “But if you are talking about law-breaking, then that is an issue for those in Lib Dem-facing seats.”
Another MP rejected the idea that his colleagues would fall in behind the prime minister if Mr Johnson picked a fight with Brussels. “This is about integrity and principle,” he said.
And another predicted a “foolhardy charge at enemy lines” over the protocol, warning: “He’s stuck. If he lurches right he risks losing more support than he gains. If he doesn’t then the right might decide they need a new champion too.”
Mr Johnson’s call for the rebel MPs to “move on” following the confidence vote, which he won by 211 to 148, appears to have fallen on deaf ears, with backbenchers saying that the fight to remove him is “not over” and even former leader William Hague saying his position is “untenable” in the long term.
Disgruntled Tories were discussing the possibility of seeking to amend party rules to allow another leadership vote before the 12-month interval currently required. The chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, has made clear that such a change is not impossible, but it is understood that it is not currently under discussion by the committee’s executive.
Former defence minister Tobias Ellwood said Mr Johnson had “a matter of months” left as prime minister. He called for an immediate cabinet reshuffle, and new policies that would “appeal to the country and not just to our base” by focusing on the cost of living crisis rather than culture-war issues such as imperial measurements and Channel 4 privatisation.
And the chair of parliament’s intelligence and security committee, Julian Lewis, hit out at the PM’s approach.
“He has an aversion to scrutiny bordering on contempt for the Commons,” said the senior Tory backbencher. “Impropriety at the top of government is impossible to defend, especially when it is habitual.”
Meanwhile, former chief whip Mark Harper said the PM had a matter of weeks to deliver “the fruits” of promised reforms, telling the Adam Smith Institute: “We’re going to judge him by what he said.” Mr Harper, who was a candidate in the 2019 leadership contest, said of Mr Johnson’s 80-seat majority: “We’re not using it to deliver Conservative policies.”
The PM’s former Brexit negotiator Lord Frost added to the push by the Tory right for tax cuts, warning that the current high-spending economic policy “is not going to deliver prosperity and wealth” and that the government needs to “get onto a different path”.
Addressing cabinet for the first time since Monday’s vote, Mr Johnson set out his ambition to reduce taxes and spending, telling ministers there was “ample scope” to “cut the cost of government and cut the costs that businesses and families face”.
He is expected to spell out more details of his plans in a joint economic speech with chancellor Rishi Sunak next week.
Ahead of that will come a speech on Thursday, reviving David Cameron’s scheme to extend the right to buy for housing association tenants, as well as the launch of controversial legislation on the Northern Ireland protocol, which the PM aims to rush through the Commons by the summer.
The legislation, which could be published as early as Thursday, is understood to include a “dual regulatory regime” that would favour the UK internal market over the EU single market, and to allow for the removal of many of the checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea in a manner that critics believe would break international law.
Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said he was concerned that Mr Johnson was toughening his position on the protocol in response to threats to his leadership.
“That would be a big mistake I think, politically, because I think it’ll cause an awful lot more problems than it solves,” said Mr Coveney. “I certainly hope that’s not the price of the British prime minister maintaining majority support within his own party.”
