More voters are deserting the Conservative party because of inaction on cost of living and rising bills than animosity to Boris Johnson, a new poll has found.
The findings, seen by The Independent, come after Tory MPs forced the prime minister out of office, believing he had become an electoral liability.
But a survey by ComRes of wavering Tories suggests that it is rising energy bills more than Mr Johnson himself who is most to blame – though he is also a significant drag on support.
The findings will make difficult reading for Tory MPs who hope that a change of leader will revive the party’s fortunes. It has lost support, including in the so-called “red wall”, with national polls showing it consistently behind Labour since the autumn.
The party also now risks losing seats in the south of England to the Liberal Democrats, who have won a series of stunning by-election victories across the bottom half of the country, including in previously save Tory seats.
ComRes interviewed a weighted sample of 2,208 UK adults between 8 and 10 July 2022, just after Mr Johnson resigned.
Asked whether they were more or less likely to vote Conservative than this time last year, 43 per cent said yes, with 38 per cent saying they were no more or less likely to do so. 10 per cent said they were more likely.
Out of Conservative voters who responded and said they were less likely, 26 per cent cited rising energy bills as their primary concern, ahead of 20 per cent who cited Boris Johnson personally and 14 per cent general corruption and sleaze.
Bills were far and away the main reason given in wavering Tories’ top three concerns, cited by 54 per cent, ahead of 35 per cent Mr Johnson and 34 per cent corruption and sleaze.
The government has been criticised for not doing enough to control bills and prices of essentials, with the perception particularly damaging to frontrunner Rishi Sunak because of the former chancellor’s association with the economy.
Yet despite the energy price cap increasing by a record 54 per cent in April 2022, Tory leadership candidates have largely talked about tax cuts and culture war issues.
Bill are expected to rise substantially again in October. The chief executive of regulator Ofgem has said the price cap is likely to rise again in the autumn by another 40 per cent to around £2,800.
The House of Commons library says that more recent forecasts have put the likely increase in the region of £3,250. Fixed price deals in April averaged over £3,000.
Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said the cost of living and energy cap rise was “the elephant in the room” during the Tory leadership contest.
“That announcement will send a shiver down the spine of millions in the country who simply can’t afford energy bills of over £3,000 a year,” she said.
“Yet all we’ve heard from Conservative leadership candidates is bluster and nonsense to woo Conservative MPs. They have said absolutely nothing on how they plan to help people with energy bills.”
She added: “These candidates are out of touch and out of ideas. Frankly, this country is sick and tired of the Conservative party. They have no answers on the cost of living crisis and will fail to help struggling people through a tough winter of price hikes.”
Government help on the cost of living has been relatively modest compared to many of Britain’s neighbours. Mr Sunak initially announced a £200 energy bill loan in his budget, but increase this to a £400 grant this year. The grant will offset some of the cost increase of an annual energy bill.
Other countries such as Germany, Spain, Italy and France facing rising bills have offered free or very cheap public transport to offset rising costs, deployed subsidies to keep bills down, or introduced price controls at a wholesale level.
