The world is going through an “extraordinarily dangerous time” as war rages in Europe and confrontations escalate between the West and China, North Korea and Iran, the head of Britain’s armed forces has warned.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has seen “naked aggression and territorial expansion”, said Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, along with “extraordinary vilification and hatred, ethnic scourges, sub-human labelling and war crimes including summary executions”.
The war means “millions are put at risk of famine” while further afield “hundreds of millions are suffering the pressure of increased energy prices, inflation, job losses, and the consequences that follow, whether mentally or physically”.
The chief of defence staff told an audience at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London that the violence of Russia’s invasion has been accompanied by “nuclear threats, nuclear anxiety, crazy nuclear debates about whether ‘tactical nuclear weapons’ can be distinguished from ‘strategic nuclear weapons’” as a cornered Vladimir Putin lashes out.
The nuclear spectre is not limited to the Kremlin, the admiral warned. Iran has a rapidly developing nuclear programme and then there is “nuclear North Korea pouring bile and anger on its neighbour and mixing rhetoric with over 60 ballistic missile launches this year, 23 of these were in a single day”.
Despite this gloomy assessment, he said there were reasons for Britain and the West to be optimistic: “Extraordinary times call for an extraordinary response. And that is why Russia is losing. And the free world is winning.”
In his attempt to divide the world, Mr Putin “has unintentionally assembled an extraordinary coalition of democracies against him”, said Admiral Radakin. “It is as if he has illuminated what our beliefs really mean and entail.
“We can take confidence from the response. Because the response is affirming the perilous nature of using violence and the military instrument as the means to achieve political goals. That is profound. It has resonance around the globe. And it makes us all safer. At its heart is the will of one country to fight for its survival,” he added.
While the invasion has demonstrated the “ingenuity, courage and determination of Ukraine”, it has also exposed deep flaws in Russia’s political leadership, said Admiral Radakin.
“Let me tell Putin what his own generals and ministers are probably afraid to say: that Russia faces a critical shortage of artillery munitions. This means that their ability to conduct successful offensive ground operations is rapidly diminishing.
“There is no mystery as to why this is the case. Putin planned for a 30-day war, but the Russian guns have now been firing for almost 300 days. The cupboard is bare. Morally, conceptually and physically, Putin’s forces are running low,” he said.
“The economic response to Russia’s invasion was far greater than has ever been seen and Russia was ill-prepared. Of course, Putin will look for ways to get around sanctions. But the loss of capital, thousands of international companies fleeing, the brain drain as talent flees tyranny, the reductions in investment, the absence of critical technologies, increase in impact over time,” he continued.
China poses a different danger but is a supporter of Russia, whether at the United Nations or taking advantage of cheap energy, said Admiral Radakin, and it has substantially increased its nuclear arsenal and strengthened its armed forces.
Beijing is showing its military might “in the Indo-Pacific and the brazen claims of 80 per cent of the South China Sea, the plundering of fishing grounds and the denial of protein to neighbouring states, aggression shown toward Taiwan or protests in Hong Kong”.
The lesson from 2022, said Admiral Radakin, is “to recognise that we are part of a generational struggle for the future of the global order … and the alternative to thinking big, and to thinking on a global scale, is that we become an introspective, cautious nation, that looks the other way”.
“But we’ve seen what happens when countries look away: authoritarians are emboldened, rules get broken, economic turmoil and global insecurity follow. We all pay the price.”
