It fell to Steve Bannon, far-right podcaster and political pugilist, to wake up the crowd with a jolt.

“Don’t fall for the primary stuff,” he urged in a fiery speech. “It’s not relevant. We don’t have time for on-the-job training [instead of] a man that gave us four years of peace and prosperity.”

What had been a low energy Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) erupted in cheers. It did so again when Bannon – who is facing four months in prison for contempt of Congress – assured them that “Donald J Trump” would win both the Republican nomination and US presidency in 2024. Finally, here was someone who was speaking the language of CPAC.

But a glance at the convention centre ballroom revealed row upon row of empty seats. The “Make America Great Again” (Maga) movement, while vociferous as ever, appeared diminished in size. There was no doubt that former president Trump remained the big fish at the National Harbor in Maryland – but in a smaller pond.

CPAC, which bills itself as the biggest and most influential gathering of conservatives in the world, has been taking place for nearly half a century. After a pandemic-enforced move to Florida and Texas, it returned to the Washington area this week. But proximity to the capital was no guarantee of relevance. The list of Republicans who decided to stay away was as striking as those who showed up.

CPAC impresario Matt Schlapp, who is battling a lawsuit over a sexual assault allegation, acknowledged on Thursday: “There’s a lot of chatter in the media about who’s here and not here.”

The absentees included potential 2024 contenders such as Florida governor Ron DeSantis, Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin, former vice-president Mike Pence and Senator Tim Scott. Republican Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell and Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel were also missing.

Even Fox News, once Trump’s loudest cheerleader, appeared to have given up the ghost and been supplanted by the more extreme and fringy Newsmax. Bannon railed against Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch, vowing: “Murdoch, you’ve deemed Trump’s not going to be president. Well, we’ve deemed that you’re not going to have a network. Because we’re going to fight you every step of the way.”

It was a far cry from the days when CPAC commanded national headlines as the rehearsal dinner for Republican primary candidates. In 2015, the year before the last competitive Republican primary, the marquee event heard from nearly all the major candidates, including Jeb Bush.

Nevertheless Nikki Haley, who launched her campaign last month, did venture into the lion’s den on Friday. Trump’s former ambassador to the United Nations diplomatically avoided direct criticism of her old boss, though she did offer coded jabs.

Noting that Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections, Haley said: “Our cause is right but we have failed to win the confidence of a majority of Americans. That ends now. If you’re tired of losing, put your trust in a new generation.”

Although she received polite applause throughout her speech, there were numerous empty seats in the ballroom. And later several attendees chanted “Trump! Trump! Trump!” as she walked through the venue.

Mike Pompeo, a former secretary of state who is also expected to launch a White House bid, was similarly oblique and subdued in taking on Trump. He said: “We can’t become the left, following celebrity leaders with their own brand of identity politics, those with fragile egos who refuse to acknowledge reality.”

Both appearances underscored how no Republican has yet shown willingness to step into the ring and go toe to toe with Trump for fear of alienating his voter base. DeSantis has so far refused to engage while, in a recent interview, Scott admitted that he could not think of any policy differences with the former president.

Meanwhile Trump, whom no one ever accused of being tormented by self-doubt, has forged ahead with campaign events, policy announcements and a visit to the scene of a toxic rail disaster in East Palestine, Ohio, that showed his populist touch has not entirely deserted him. Last month’s opinion polls showed him building momentum.

CPAC, in effect a four-day Trump rally, is likely to provide a further sugar rush. He cruised to victory in its unscientific straw poll of more than 2,000 attendees with 62% of the vote, well clear of DeSantis on 20%. His speech drew by far the biggest crowd of the conference.

A walk through the corridors revealed a plethora of “Make America great again” caps, “Bikers for Trump” vests and “Trump 45” sports jerseys, clustering around Maga podcasters such as Bannon, Sebastian Gorka and Mike Lindell. Trump’s son Don Jr spent hours broadcasting against the backdrop of a White House image.

Downstairs, at the CPAC trade show, there was no escape from pro-Trump bobbleheads, caps, coins, dollar bills, dresses, flags, jewelry, sparkly purses, T-shirts and other products. A “DeSantis” cap with the Stars and Stripes sat beside a “Trump won” cap. A mock-up of the Oval Office featured a Trump photo, Maga cap and “Trump was right” sign sitting on a resolute desk ready made for photo ops.

Interviews with more than a dozen attendees appeared to confirm the notion that, while Trump might have lost some ground in the Republican party, his core support is holding fast. Several expressed doubts over the validity of the 2020 election and none said the January 6 2021 insurrection was a deal breaker. Some spoke of nostalgia for the Trump economy.

Theresa McManus, 67, a horse trainer and organic farmer from rural Virginia, said: “I liked my grocery bill. I’ve had to cut my herd of cows. I have a lot of friends who are pissed off because I can’t feed them anymore. My $30 bag of feed is now $75 a bag. This is ridiculous. My grocery bill: two little bags that were $10 or $20 are now $50 to $100.

“Let’s just look at the economy. Look at the gas prices. Look at the food prices. He knew how to run this country. People didn’t like him because he was crass, because he was loud. You know what? I identify with that. I speak my mind, too, and it’s like, get out of my way.”

Others continue to back the former president with a near religious zeal that will be difficult for primary opponents to penetrate. Asked why he likes Trump, Jason Jisa, from Dallas, Texas, corrected: “I love Trump. He puts America first. He puts the people of America first. He doesn’t sell us out to the globalists. He takes on the big dogs and he wins.”

Jisa, 41, selling Trump merchandise, dismissed the potential threat from DeSantis. “Stay in Florida, stay in your lane. You can do it at a later time. He’s not the man for the job. He’s not up for it. I wouldn’t vote for him. If it’s not Trump, I won’t vote. There is no second choice. There’s one choice and that’s it. You can look at it as a spiritual thing: years ago, this situation we’re in now, has been foretold. We’re living out a prophecy and he’s the guy.”

He was not alone in offering a scathing verdict of DeSantis that could foreshadow an ugly and divisive primary.

Antwon Williams, 40, another merchandise trader from Columbia, South Carolina, said: “He’s being bought off. He was a Trumper and clearly now he has his own agenda. It’s like he used President Trump to get his name to where he needed to be and now all of a sudden he’s onto his own agenda now and that’s not cool.

“Put it this way, DeSantis is to me is what Pence is to me: a traitor. Either you’re with us or you’re against us. Clearly Pence didn’t know the difference between that line and DeSantis is not understanding the difference between that line right now. I have nothing positive to say about him as long as he’s trying to run against us.”

But others were more forgiving. A 40-year-old truck driver from Nashville, Tennessee, who gave his name only as James, said: “I love what DeSantis stands for. He is doing fantastic for the state of Florida. If there were not a Donald Trump in existence, I would be for Ron DeSantis as number one. Donald Trump is the man, the myth, the legend, the bomb. He is fantastic. I would love to see Trump-DeSantis on the ‘24 ticket.”

Yet even in this Trump stronghold there were dissenting voices. Some argued that, while they admire his record as president, his myriad legal troubles, poor midterm election performance and boorish behaviour make him an electoral liability.

Hylton Phillips-Page, 67, a retired investment manager from Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, wants DeSantis to be the nominee. “He’s Trump without the circus,” he said. “I like Trump policies. I respect everything he’s done for us but there are too many people who will not vote for him.”

Phillips-Page, who protested outside the US Capitol on 6 January, added: “I’m involved with the Republican party in a big way and I can tell you when I’m campaigning I meet lots of Republicans who tell me, ‘I’m not voting for Trump’.

“It’s just a problem and I feel we really can’t afford to take that risk, quite frankly. I have no problem with Trump being president but, once he gets through the primary, DeSantis will have a much better shot at winning the general.”

Kathleen Smero, 62, a supply chain analyst, favours Haley and Pompeo. “Nikki Haley has governor experience now as well as international experience of being ambassador. Mike Pompeo, of course, being secretary of state – the international defence skills are really important for being president.”

But the 62-year-old from Baltimore, Maryland, added: “If Trump gets the nomination, I would vote for him. I believe in his policies. The rhetoric has been tiresome but I always support my candidate and I’ll always support President Trump if he gets the nomination.”

Others are still undecided about their choice of Republican standard bearer. Wes Gregory, 34, a US marine veteran who is African American, said: “It will have to be a cross between DeSantis and Trump. They both care more about the people than themselves. They’re all about making America a better place.

“Trump did it on the national level. DeSantis did it on the state level. Everyone’s moving down to Florida – everyone likes it. Trump did a lot of good stuff for the Black community, way more than any other president I can think of in my lifetime.”

But if he had to choose between Trump and DeSantis? “Honestly, it would have to be a coin flip,” said Gregory, from Brunswick, Maryland. “They both have a proven track record of excellence.”