Labour is heading for government, according to a panel of experts at an Independent virtual event on Thursday.
Paula Surridge, professor of political sociology at Bristol University, said that the mood of the British people seemed anti-Conservative rather than pro-Labour, and that tactical voting was likely to exaggerate the swing away from the government.
All the panel, which included Dr Chris Butler of the University of Antwerp and Sean O’Grady, associate editor of The Independent, expected Labour to win the next general election with a majority about equivalent to that of the Tories in the 2019.
If Labour does win, the panel agreed the new government would face stiff challenges.
Sean O’Grady said its pre-election promise not to raise taxes would present it with two problems in power: “One if it kept its word, and one if it didn’t.”
He thought it would find “stealthy” ways to raise taxes, and the panel agreed that a new government would be given two or three years’ grace by the voters, and be allowed to prove itself.
To watch the event in full view the recording below
The discussion, chaired by John Rentoul, The Independent’s chief political commentator, concluded that, although Labour activists might be disappointed by Keir Starmer’s caution on Europe, climate change and electoral reform, the wider electorate would judge a new government on the simpler test of whether their lives were getting easier.
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