Reform UK’s hopes of stealing working-class Labour voters away from Sir Keir Starmer’s camp at the next general election has been met with scepticism from leading pollsters, The Independent can reveal.
The rebranded Brexit party, led by Richard Tice and co-founded by Nigel Farage, has labelled itself “the party of the working class”, declaring it is now the real home of Labour supporters.
But Britain’s top pollster, Sir John Curtice, has poured cold water on the claims, predicting that its prospects in Labour heartlands remain slim.
The most recent by-elections saw Reform make a significant dent in the Conservative vote – taking a third of the overall vote share in both Wellingborough and Kingswood.
But the party has not yet proven that it can land a blow on Labour. In Wellingborough, despite Reform receiving 13 per cent of the vote share, Labour still overturned a Conservative stronghold with the largest by-election swing since 1994 and a majority of 6,436 votes.
Sir John, who is professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told The Independent the crucial factor that distinguishes those who switch to Reform is that “they still believe in Brexit”.
Although he conceded that Labour’s vote is not “wholly invulnerable” to the ex-Brexit party, that vulnerability is “limited” because around three-quarters of Labour’s vote stems from people who “want to be inside the European Union”.
Sir John said: “If you’re discontenting of the Tories and you change your mind about Brexit, then you tend to go to Labour. If, however, you’re discontented with the Tories but you’re still a Brexit believer, you tend to switch to Reform.”
Mr Tice has built the party as a populist right-wing alternative to the Conservatives, campaigning for closed borders, lower taxes and a rollback of net zero targets. Reform has also claimed that the party is currently delivering “phase one” of its project, which is “destroying the Conservative Party”, and will next become a credible alternative to Labour.
Sir Keir, meanwhile, is attempting to ensure the working-class vote by putting Labour’s “new deal for workers” – a series of reforms aimed at strengthening workers’ rights in the UK – front and centre of his campaign, while also pledging to take a tougher approach to law, order and immigration.
Labour is currently polling 12 points ahead of the Conservatives as voters of all demographics abandon the Tories after 14 turbulent years in government.
Mr Tice has warned the country faces “Starmergeddon” if it elects Labour, stating that “only Reform UK is now the party of the working class, who will stop mass immigration, who will scrap net zero, [and] who will help solve the cost of living crisis”.
While pollsters say Reform is nibbling away at a certain piece of the 2019 Conservative vote, characterised by working-class voters in traditional Labour heartlands who voted overwhelmingly for Boris Johnson and who became known as the red wall, they refute the party’s chances of damaging Labour.
Scarlett Maguire, director at polling and political research company JL partners, acknowledged that while Reform is “pulling away about 21 per cent or so of people who voted Conservative in 2019”, the party is “just not pulling away Labour voters in the same way”.
She added that research conducted by her company suggested “69 per cent of current Reform voters voted Conservative in 2019, while just 4 per cent voted Labour”.
Clacton-on-Sea – the seat that former Brexit party leader Mr Farage is rumoured to be considering should he run as a Reform candidate – is only polling at 18 per cent, inviting scepticism about the party’s prospects in Westminster.
Conservative peer and psephologist Lord Hayward similarly dismissed Mr Tice’s chances, emphasising the ethnic diversity of Labour’s working-class voter base – a group Reform has alienated through its hostile stance on immigration and diversity.
A 2019 Ipsos MORI poll estimated that Labour won the votes of 64 per cent of all Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) voters in 2019, while just 20 per cent voted for the Conservatives.
“It would therefore be an interesting concept for a party that’s majored its campaign at essentially the white working class 2019 Tory voters, suddenly setting out to capture a group of people that effectively their campaign has set about alienating,” Lord Hayward told TheIndependent.
A Labour source also dismissed Reform UK’s chances, saying the party was only concerned with fighting the Conservatives. The source added: “We’re focused on winning elections, and to do that we need to beat the Tories. We’re not wasting our time worrying about whatever Richard Tice is saying to get attention this week.”
Reform UK has been approached for comment.
