There’s a lot of talk that Kamala Harris picked Tim Walz to prevent Josh Shapiro’s views on the Middle East from becoming a distraction. But the more relevant reason that Walz was chosen is electoral.
It’s true that we were told for weeks that Electoral College criteria would lead to Shapiro, in the hopes that he could put the crucial state of Pennsylvania in Harris’s column. And if Harris narrowly loses Pennsylvania and thus the election, the failure to pick Shapiro will reverberate for generations.
But electoral math has many permutations. Shapiro, like Harris, is from the coastal elite. By contrast, Walz — a 24-year veteran of the Army National Guard — graduated from high school in a Nebraska town of 400 and later coached the Mankato West Scarlets to a Minnesota high school football championship. Unlike JD Vance, Walz didn’t leave home for Yale and private equity. Once his life story penetrates among voters, he will probably shore up Democrats in parts of the country where they need help the most.
Over the years. rural counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada have felt abandoned by Democrats. Many went for Donald Trump in the last two elections by 20 points or more, and he remains very popular in those places. But Walz, an authentic rural voice, might change that outcome and reduce Trump’s share to 55 percent from roughly 60 percent in enough counties. If that happens, Harris will win the election.
Source: Elections - nytimes.com
