As Gaza Talks Resume, Little Progress Is Expected Before the U.S. Election

As the Biden administration makes a final diplomatic push in the Middle East before next week’s U.S. presidential election, little is expected to be achieved before the result is known, officials and analysts in the region said on Monday.

Envoys from Israel, Egypt, the United States and Qatar renewed talks in Doha, the Qatari capital, on Monday over a cease-fire in Gaza. American mediators were also expected this week to continue to try to reach a truce between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But few expect a conclusive result from either effort before the election next Tuesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel waiting to see who will succeed President Biden before committing to a diplomatic trajectory, according to four officials briefed on Israel’s internal thinking. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive diplomacy.

A senior official from Hamas has also already rejected the premise of a 48-hour cease-fire in Gaza, an idea proposed by Egypt over the weekend, during which Hamas would release a handful of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. Osama Hamdan, a Hamas leader, said on Sunday that the group would only agree to a permanent cessation of hostilities, dashing hopes that Israel’s recent killing of the group’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, would bring about a swift change in its negotiating position.

By contrast, Mr. Netanyahu has repeatedly said that he can only agree to a temporary arrangement that would allow Israeli forces to resume fighting. The prime minister’s coalition depends on several far-right lawmakers and ministers who have threatened to bring down the government if it allows Hamas to remain in power in Gaza.

While Mr. Netanyahu could still compromise he is likely waiting to see whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump will lead the United States for the next four years, in order to assess how much leeway he will have from Israel’s main benefactor and ally, officials and analysts said.