The government has admitted that Sir Keir Starmer’s benefit cuts will still push 150,000 people into relative poverty, despite the prime minister watering down the measures.
An assessment of the impact of the welfare reforms says 150,000 additional working-age adults will face relative poverty because of the cuts.
A previous assessment, before Sir Keir was forced to U-turn on some of the changes, said 250,000 people, including 50,000 children, would face poverty as a result of the measures.
Pressure is mounting on the prime minister as he launches a last-minute attempt to win over dozens of Labour MPs rebelling against his welfare reforms.
He is still facing the prospect of around 50 MPs rebelling in a crunch vote on Tuesday, despite offering concessions on the legislation last week.
The original welfare bill proposed to introduce a higher bar for eligibility for the Personal Independence Payment (Pip), and cut the health-related element of universal credit.
But after more than 100 Labour MPs called for these changes to be scrapped, the government said its proposed rules will now only apply to new claims from November 2026, and also rowed back on universal credit plans.
Some changes to bill confirmed
Liz Kendall is outlining concessions made to the welfare bill in the Commons now.
“We have listened carefully and we are making positive changes as a result,” she said.
She confirmed that the government’s proposed rules will now only apply to new claims from November 2026.
“We will now ensure the new 4 point requirement will only apply to new claims from November 2026, this means no existing claimants will be affected by the changes in this bill,” she said.
Watch live: Live: Labour introduces changes to Welfare Bill ahead of crucial vote
Liz Kendall begins statement
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is now addressing MPs in the Commons.
She is updating MPs on changes made to the government’s controversial welfare reforms, in a bid to quell a Labour rebellion.
She began by saying: “This government believes in equality and social justice.”
Business secretary contests warnings reforms could push 150,000 more into poverty
Jonathan Reynolds has contested warnings that the government’s welfare reforms could push 150,000 people into poverty by 2030.
Asked about the modelling published by the Department for Work and Pensions, the Business Secretary told broadcasters: “Those figures cannot and do not, as a matter of policy, take into account where the savings of these changes will go, and they will go in the main to more support for the most vulnerable people, more support to get people into full time work.”
He added: “When I see an assessment like that, it’s got to look at the whole picture.
“We’re making more work secure through our Employment Rights Bill, we’ve put up the living wage to one of the highest levels of any developed country and we’re putting more money into specialist help, one-to-one help to get people back into work.
“But I don’t think you can fix this just by saying there should be unlimited spending.”
Mr Reynolds also indicated he was confident the welfare reform Bill would pass its second reading on Tuesday, adding: “I think everybody here across Parliament wants a system that protects the most vulnerable people. That’s certainly what I want.”
Liz Kendall to address MPs shortly
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is set to address MPs in the Commons shortly.
She will stand at 3:30pm to update MPs to changes made to the government’s controversial welfare reforms, in a bid to quell a Labour rebellion.
We will bring you the latest update here.
Economic think tank: Government assessment understates poverty impact
The Independent’s political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:
An economic think tank has warned that the government’s assessment of how many people will be plunged into poverty by Sir Keir Starmer’s benefit cuts by 100,000.
The government said on Monday that its welfare reforms will push an additional 150,000 people into poverty.
But the New Economics Foundation (NEF) said the cuts being made by the prime minister are being understated, with the impact assessment offsetting the impact of not proceeding with the previous Conservative government’s plans.
The impact of the actual changes being pursued by Labour are likely to actually see around 250,000 people pushed into poverty, NEF’s head of social policy Tom Pollard said.
Mayor of London calls for ‘radical change’ to welfare reform despite PM’s U-turn
The Independent’s Whitehall editor Kate Devlin reports:
Sadiq Khan has intervened on the welfare debate to call for more – and “radical” – changes.
He said: “I welcome the changes announced by the government, and I welcome that the government has pledged to work with disabled people and disabled groups.
“But I still have serious concerns about these plans. I’ve met too many Londoners who do work, but through no fault of their own need support from the state, and they’re really worried they’ll lose that.
“The mission of the Labour government should be to support people out of poverty and this Bill still needs radical transformation to be fit for purpose.
“I’m hoping today and tomorrow the Government go further to address the concerns many of us have.”
Full story: Welfare reforms could push 150,000 into poverty, official modelling suggests
What concessions have been made?
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has conceded two changes she said would “strengthen the Bill”.
In recognition of the “uncertainty and anxiety” caused by the proposed changes, she said all current Pip recipients would keep their benefits, saying only new claims from November 2026 will come under the tightened eligibility requirements.
An impact assessment had stated that 370,000 current recipients were set to lose Pip entitlement across England and Wales.
Ms Kendall also vowed all those currently receiving the UC health element, as well as new claimants meeting the severe conditions criteria, will have their incomes “fully protected in real terms”.
The Work and Pensions Secretary has also promised a review of the Pip assessment, led by social security and disability minister Sir Stephen Timms, which will have input from disabled people “to ensure the benefit is fair and fit for the future”.
Mayor of London calls for ‘radical change’ to welfare reform despite PM’s U-turn
Sir Sadiq Khan has intervened on the welfare debate to call for more – and “radical” – changes.
The Labour Mayor of London said: “I welcome the changes announced by the government, and I welcome that the government has pledged to work with disabled people and disabled groups.
“But I still have serious concerns about these plans. I’ve met too many Londoners who do work, but through no fault of their own need support from the state, and they’re really worried they’ll lose that.
“The mission of the Labour government should be to support people out of poverty and this Bill still needs radical transformation to be fit for purpose.
“I’m hoping today and tomorrow the Government go further to address the concerns many of us have.”
