A leading pollster has suggested that support for Reform UK has “topped out”, and that the momentum that was carrying the party up in the polls has ground to a halt.
Conservative peer Robert Hayward has told The Independent that the results of recent council by-elections in which Reform lost while defending seats, coupled with a small fall in the party’s polling figures, suggest that the march of Nigel Farage to Downing Street at the next general election could be facing a setback.
It comes after business leaders and senior figures in the Labour Party urged Sir Keir Starmer to “stop obsessing” about Reform.
The analysis follows two by-elections last week in which Reform lost council seats it was defending for the first time.
Many pollsters are looking at council by-election results as a more accurate indicator of the state of political parties than the opinion polls themselves.
One of the results, in Newark West, Nottinghamshire, saw the Tories gain a seat from Reform in Robert Jenrick’s constituency, while in Benfieldside, County Durham, the Liberal Democrats were the winners.
Both seats were won by Mr Farage’s party in the recent county council elections, but the successful candidates had to stand down almost immediately.
Meanwhile, Reform has also been hit by questions about another of its MPs, James McMurdock, who resigned the party whip over the weekend after an investigation was launched into his business dealings during the Covid pandemic.
It means that in 12 months, just three of the five original Reform MPs remain, after Rupert Lowe was ousted from the party earlier this year following a row with Mr Farage and former chair Zia Yusuf.
Lord Hayward has also taken note of a dip in support for Reform in recent polls, although the party is currently still ahead of its rivals.
In the last Techne UK poll, at the end of June, Reform dropped 3 percentage points to 28 per cent, while in last week’s YouGov poll it was down one point to 26 per cent, where it has stayed.
There has also been a small fracturing of Reform’s base vote on the right, with the emergence of new parties including Advance UK, led by Reform’s former deputy leader Ben Habib, and Restore Britain, founded by Mr Lowe.
The decision by Reform to reveal that former Tory cabinet minister David Jones has joined the party, more than six months after he defected from the Conservatives, is also being seen as a sign of desperation.
Mr Jones joined just after Christmas, and indicated that he no longer wished to be in frontline politics and wanted no news fanfare over his defection. But with the party in retreat, Reform has decided to try to regain momentum with an article on the website of GB News, the channel that employs Mr Farage.
Lord Hayward said: “I would say their support has topped out rather than peaked, [because] I’m not certain something else won’t give them a further boost. But the momentum has come to an end.
“Poll numbers have slightly declined. Membership numbers are down a bit. They are not winning by-elections. Those first two seats they defended were an important test.”
Reform has hit back at suggestions that its progress has come to a halt, especially with a More in Common poll suggesting that it would be the largest party in a general election, with 290 seats.
A Reform UK spokesperson said: “Recent polls have us as high as 34 per cent. We were told 20 per cent was our limit, then 25 per cent, and now 30 per cent.
“Reform has gained the most seats in council by-elections since the local elections. We have all the momentum in British politics.”
In an interview at the weekend, Rachel Reeves’s former adviser Jim O’Neill told The Independent that obsessing about Reform was harming Labour.
The crossbench peer said: “They should stop worrying about Farage – they have four years before that should matter.”
