If Labour MPs were hoping that the summer break had calmed things down for the party and seen an end to the infighting and manoeuvring, then they will have arrived back disappointed.
The whirlwind of stories around deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and her property purchase, the speculation of dire consequences for the economy under Rachel Reeves’ guidance, and the mini -reshuffle as the new term began are all connected in a giant soap opera behind the scenes.
Essentially, the common thread is Keir Starmer’s own future as Labour leader and prime minister and the fact that there are many now plotting his downfall while others are plotting to take out his biggest threat, Ms Rayner.
Taking back control
What we saw with the mini-reshuffle was an acknowledgement by the prime minister that he needs to reassert his authority over his government.
His authority was badly damaged by the welfare rebellion and Labour MPs are looking at the polls – and Reform UK’s eight-point lead – with growing trepidation.
The constant criticism has been that he has focussed too much on foreign policy while allowing Ms Reeves and the Treasury to dominate the headlines at home.
After all, it was the Treasury which decided to remove pensioners’ winter fuel payments and cut welfare for the disabled by £5bn a year.
One MP summed it up neatly: “All the problems are coming from the Treasury. He needs to get a grip on it.”
So in comes a new chief economist to direct economic policy from Downing Street. Notably Baroness Minouche Shafik is a supporter of income tax rises.
Added to that, Reeves’ former deputy Darren Jones, one of the few rising stars, is brought into Downing Street to support Starmer.
Angela Rayner under siege
The deputy prime minister had a torrid end to the summer with pictures of her vaping on an inflatable and a series of stories about her purchase of a flat her buying a pad in Brighton to be near her partner.
A court ruling has not helped her by barring her from revealing her tax arrangements, leading to further questions about the financing of the purchase.
But supporters of the deputy prime minister smell a rat.
One suggested to The Independent that while Starmer is giving her his full support, there is a belief that his key lieutenants – chief of staff Morgan McSweeney and chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden – may have been behind a briefing campaign against her.
“They want to see her taken out,” a supporter of hers claimed.
The reason is that Ms Rayner is the clearest of frontrunners to take over should Starmer be forced out. The parliamentary party’s rebellion over welfare cuts, and the wider view among ordinary members, means that a candidate on the right of the party – like health secretary Wes Streeting – would struggle to beat her.
If Ms Rayner were to win then it would be the end of the McSweeney project of taking the party to the right and the return to an even more socialist government.
One senior plotter among the Labour MPs was quite clear following Monday’s reshuffle.
“This is a roll of the dice to save Starmer. It means that Reeves is a dead woman walking. She will be gone by Christmas and if things do not improve we will remove him [Starmer]. It may need to be the men in grey coats or a special conference but he will be out.”
