Labour MPs are said to be plotting to oust Sir Keir Starmer, despite the prime minister welcoming rebellious backbenchers back into the fold.
It comes amid despair about the party’s poll ratings and concern that the government may break Labour’s manifesto promise not to raise income tax to fill a hole in the public finances.
The warnings come less than 18 months after Labour won a historic majority, with the government now seeing mounting discontent brewing among Labour backbenchers.
While a challenge against the prime minister is not thought to be imminent, a number of MPs, Cabinet ministers and party strategists told The i Paper that conversations around Sir Keir’s future have increased in recent weeks, before a backdrop of continued turmoil in the government.
The latest warnings come after a new poll from More in Commons put Labour in third place behind Reform and the Tories, dropping three points to just 18 per cent support.
The Conservatives leapfrogged Sir Keir’s party, moving ahead of Labour with 19 per cent backing, while Reform was out in front with 31 per cent backing.
Speaking the morning after Sir Keir addressed a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party last week, one minister said he and colleagues were “talking about the who and the how and the when to replace him”.
Meanwhile, a Labour backbencher accused the PM of being in denial about the fragility of his position, saying: “It’s a mix of everything. It’s the botched reshuffle. It’s all the poll ratings.
“It’s having to break the manifesto commitment to raise income tax in the Budget. It’s Peter Mandelson. It’s a belief among the PLP that the prime minister and Downing Street don’t really like them or respect them. Eventually, that feeling becomes mutual.”
Another told the newspaper: “There’s one question on the timing of when he’s replaced and there’s another question on the process. In the last couple of weeks, both conversations have stepped up again, so people are now talking about what the process might look like and what timings would be best, rather than it just being grumblings.”
It comes despite the party restoring the whip to four MPs who led the charge in rebelling against the government’s plans to reform benefits, in what was seen as an attempt to boost party unity.
Neil Duncan-Jordan, Chris Hinchliff, Brian Leishman and Rachael Maskell had the whip suspended in July.
They are all understood to have returned to the Parliamentary Labour Party after discussions with chief whip Jonathan Reynolds on Friday.
More than 100 Labour MPs joined the rebels in threatening to block welfare reforms being spearheaded by ministers earlier this year, over fears they would harm people claiming disability benefits.
The three MPs, aside from York Central MP Ms Maskell, were first elected at last year’s election.
She told the PA news agency she was “Labour to the core and will always stand up for Labour values”, after having the whip restored.
“I am grateful that the whip has rightfully been restored and want to especially thank all those who have been so kind to me over the last few months,” Ms Maskell added.
The prime minister, who has been at the Cop30 climate summit in Brazil this week, has found himself beset with a series of challenges on his return.
Culture secretary Lisa Nandy has apologised after being found by a probe to have “unknowingly” breached the governance code on public appointments.
She had failed to declare that she received £2,900 in donations from her choice to chair the new football watchdog.
The Tories are also calling for Sir Keir to face further scrutiny from the government’s ethics adviser, as he has also received donations from David Kogan.
Meanwhile, deputy prime minister and justice secretary David Lammy has come under fire for how he dealt with the mistaken release of a prisoner from HMP Wandsworth in southwest London.
The prisoner, 24-year-old Algerian sex offender Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, was returned to the jail on Friday.
But Mr Lammy has been criticised for his decision not to address the blunder when he appeared at Prime Minister’s Questions, despite having been briefed about it.
To make matters worse for the government, Lucy Powell, the newly elected Labour deputy leader, earlier this week urged the government not to raise taxes at the coming Budget, amid speculation the chancellor is plotting to hike income tax.
Breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT could damage “trust in politics”, Ms Powell warned.
In September, amid the fallout from Peter Mandelson’s sacking, a number of Labour MPs publicly warned Sir Keir is on the brink of being ousted after a turbulent first year in office.
Britain’s ambassador to the US was dramatically sacked after new revelations emerged about his relationship with convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, raising serious questions about the prime minister’s judgement.
Richard Burgon, MP for Leeds East, said the prime minister must “change course immediately” or he will be gone by May, saying it is “inevitable” the prime minister will be forced to quit if the local elections are as bad as predicted.
Fellow Labour MP Clive Lewis warned that Sir Keir “doesn’t seem up to the job”, while Graham Stringer said Sir Keir is “supping in the last-chance saloon”.
