Aurelia Butler

Market observers see signs that investors increasingly believe Donald Trump will win the election, but there may be alternate explanations for a shift in sentiment. A rally in some stocks, cryptocurrencies and Donald Trump’s social media company are some signs of investors betting on the former president to win in November.Brendan Mcdermid/ReutersA trade makes a comeback The election polls may be deadlocked. But in the markets, some investors are indicating that they see Donald Trump as increasingly likely to win the White House, a belief that seems to mirror a swing in the prediction markets.Market observers see the return of the so-called Trump trade, which posits that certain industry sectors and financial assets — think oil drillers and cryptocurrencies — would benefit from the former president bringing in lower taxes and less regulation.The signs that the Trump trade is gaining steam: Stanley Druckenmiller, the billionaire financier, told Bloomberg yesterday that over the past 12 days, markets appeared “very convinced Trump is going to win.” (It’s worth noting that Druckenmiller said he didn’t plan to vote for either candidate.)Among the evidence Druckenmiller pointed to:A rally in bank stocks, which are up 8.5 percent over the past two weeks. (That said, banks have so far reported better-than-expected earnings.)Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, the former president’s unprofitable social media company, have soared since late September, adding nearly $2 billion to its market value. But the stock’s volatile trading hasn’t always correlated with polls or prediction markets, and it’s unclear whether the company would draw more advertisers if Trump won. Some companies might flock to the platform to curry political favor; others might stay away.Bitcoin has risen about 13 percent in the past week. The cryptocurrency world has largely bet on a second Trump administration being friendlier to digital assets, though Vice President Kamala Harris has made appeals to the industry.Also, the dollar approached a two-and-a-half month high this morning as currency traders appear to be pricing in a Trump victory, betting that his economic policies would drive up inflation, lower the price of bonds and strengthen the dollar. (That said, Trump wants a weak greenback.)But there are potential pitfalls to betting on Trump. “It is a thing in the financial markets,” Holger Schmieding, the chief economist at Berenberg, a German bank, said of the Trump trade.He told DealBook: “I don’t agree with it in the long run. Higher tariffs and less immigration would hurt U.S. vitality.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

The dark side of college fraternity life comes to light in this harrowing, well-acted campus drama.Films about fraternities tend to describe a familiar arc of moral degradation, and Ethan Berger’s campus cautionary tale “The Line,” about the initiation of freshmen into a well-heeled but toxic brotherhood at a Southern liberal arts college, is no exception: You probably won’t be shocked to learn that frat life is crude, boorish and dangerous, as “The Line” makes abundantly clear. But if the movie’s portrayal of rivalrous (and homoerotic) hypermasculinity doesn’t always seem original, it is nevertheless realized with seriousness and vigor. Berger takes a keen anthropological approach to the rites and rituals of the fictitious Kappa Nu Alpha house, and he makes it so that you can almost smell the stale beer and crumpled Ralph Lauren. The details are believable, and therefore more disturbing.Our entree into the crass, bad-mannered world of KNA is Tom Backster (Alex Wolff), an obtuse sophomore militantly devoted to the traditions of the frat. Wolff plays him with a thick, mealy-mouthed Southern accent, which he painfully exaggerates to better fit in with his dunderheaded peers, for whom articulating a full sentence is tantamount to betrayal.Tom’s clashes with Gettys O’Brien (Austin Abrams), the club’s handsome, Billy Budd-esque newcomer who repeatedly flaunts the rules, is the conflict at the heart of the movie. Its escalation is predictable, but Wolff and Abrams (both excellent) embody their characters with intensity and conviction, which makes even the film’s most heightened confrontations feel deeply plausible.The LineNot rated. Running time: 1 hour 40 minutes. In theaters. More

Vice President Kamala Harris sat for the most adversarial interview of her campaign on Wednesday, sparring with the Fox News anchor Bret Baier over the border, President Biden’s mental fitness and whether former President Donald J. Trump is a threat to American democracy.For a Democratic presidential candidate, appearing on Fox News is about as close as going into the lion’s den as it gets. On Wednesday, the lion was Mr. Baier, who repeatedly interrupted the vice president and tried to talk over her.But Ms. Harris — giving her first interview on Fox News in an attempt to reach millions of voters, especially conservative-leaning women, who have probably not heard much of her message — largely steered the conversation in her preferred direction.Here are six takeaways from the interview.She broke with Biden (a little).Ms. Harris made her clearest effort to separate herself from Mr. Biden after she was asked how her administration would be different.“My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency,” she replied, adding that she represented a different generation of leadership and would address issues like housing and small businesses in different ways.Republicans have seen Ms. Harris’s unwillingness to articulate differences from the unpopular president as a political gift. In an interview on ABC’s “The View” last week, she said there was “not a thing that comes to mind” when asked what she would have done differently from Mr. Biden.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Luke Muir and his wife moved to Phoenix from Louisiana two years ago for a better-paying job. They prepared for higher temperatures and low housing costs. The weather has lived up to their expectations; housing prices have not. Pretty much since they arrived, Mr. Muir and his family have been trying and failing to find […] More

A country music star embodies the clichés of celebrity in an Off Broadway revival of Kenneth Lonergan’s 2016 comedy.Women fall hard and fast for Strings McCrane, the “third biggest crossover star in the history of country music.” He dates supermodels “at will.” Fangirls who flirt with him at night send him sex tapes in the morning. A hotel masseuse, kneading his sculptural glutes, exclaims: “I’ve had a crush on you since I was in trade school.”Playgoer, he marries her. But not before seducing a young relative at his mother’s funeral. Coming clean to the masseuse, he later owns his indiscretion. “I went to see Essie as a cousin,” he says. “But I stayed there with her as a man.”Did the clichés of country music make Strings (Adam Driver) such a melodramatic, self-justifying, emotional boomerang? Or are his pre-existing gifts in that department what made him a country music star in the first place?These are among the questions you may find yourself asking, in want of much else to do, while watching the baggy, overlong “Hold On to Me Darling,” a comedy by Kenneth Lonergan now being revived at the Lucille Lortel Theater. Well, not so much revived as — like Strings’s mother — embalmed.Other than a few cast changes, most notably Driver in the role first played by Timothy Olyphant, the show is pretty much what it was when it debuted at the Atlantic Theater Company in 2016. The physical production looks as if it had been preserved since then in mothballs, with the same cramped, slowly revolving set by Walt Spangler. The few tweaks to the script are almost invisible. Neither Lonergan nor the director, Neil Pepe, seems to have felt the need for refinement.And why should they have? Lonergan has proved himself a terrific dramatist many times over: “This Is Our Youth,” “The Waverly Gallery,” “Lobby Hero.” This play, too, was well received by most critics, if not by me. It is certainly funny in places, and droll in others; it is occasionally even stinging in its satire of show-business sincerity. We learn that Strings’s most recent celebrity fiancée, making “a statement of solidarity and sexual enlightenment on behalf of the women of Afghanistan,” wore a see-through mesh burqa on a junket there.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

August Lee-Kovach’s puzzle is very punny.Jump to: Today’s Theme | Tricky CluesTHURSDAY PUZZLE — August Lee-Kovach’s puzzle is very funny if you’ve done what I’ve done and been where I’ve been.I won’t go into detail in this section because it would give the theme away. Let’s just say that I have been on both sides of this conversation in my career and I laughed out loud at Mr. Lee-Kovach’s crossword (in an appreciative way, of course).Today’s ThemeAs a journalist, I appreciate my copy editors. They make me a better writer. As an editor, I appreciate the writers who decide how many spaces they should leave after a period and stick with that number throughout an entire piece.That’s why Mr. Lee-Kovach’s revealer at 56A, an ALTERCATION between an editor and a writer, is so funny to me. Setting aside the pun of having “alter” The four common phrases that make up the puzzle’s theme have been repurposed as puns on what might happen if there is a disagreement about the copy.A PERIOD DRAMA becomes [Much ado about some punctuation]. A TENSE EXCHANGE is redefined as [Harsh words regarding the past and the present?].We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Vice President Kamala Harris may not get another debate with former President Donald J. Trump, but on Wednesday, she got one with Bret Baier.In an interview that turned contentious almost the instant it began, Mr. Baier, Fox News’s chief political anchor, repeatedly pressed the Democratic presidential nominee on illegal immigration, taxpayer support for gender-transition surgery and other areas that closely aligned with Mr. Trump’s regular attacks against her.At one point, Mr. Baier wondered if the vice president considered Mr. Trump’s supporters “stupid.” (“I would never say that about the American people,” she replied.) At another point, he asked if she would apologize to the mother of a murdered 12-year-old Texas girl whose death is frequently invoked by Mr. Trump because two recent Venezuelan migrants were charged with the crime.Mr. Baier’s aggressive demeanor was consistent with the kind of tough coverage of Ms. Harris that blankets Fox News’s daily programming. Lots of viewers were surely eager to hear how she would respond when confronted head-on.Frequently, however, Mr. Baier did not give viewers that chance. Instead, looking frustrated, he cut off several of Ms. Harris’s answers after a few seconds. His first interruption came within the first half-minute of their exchange.“May I please finish responding?” Ms. Harris asked at one point. “I’m in the middle of responding to the point you’re making, and I’d like to finish.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

After a torrent of criticism, TMZ removed the image of a body without explanation.TMZ, the Hollywood-obsessed news outlet known for its coverage of celebrities, drew a flood of criticism for publishing an image purporting to show the body of Liam Payne, the former One Direction singer who died in a fatal fall on Wednesday. The site later removed the image.“TMZ is trying to get clicks and ad money off of a young man’s dead body just minutes after the news of his death,” Shayan Sardarizadeh, a journalist at the BBC, wrote in a post on X. “Imagine being a member of Liam Payne’s family and seeing this.”The site initially published a cropped image of a body lying on a wooden deck, saying that it was at a hotel in Buenos Aires, where Mr. Payne died. TMZ said it had identified him from his distinctive tattoos.“We’re not showing the whole body, but you can clearly see his tattoos — a clock on his left forearm, and a scorpion on his abdomen,” text accompanying the photo said, according to screenshots of the article circulating online.In addition to removing the photograph, TMZ also edited the text to remove any reference to showing part of Mr. Payne’s body. Editors did not post a note explaining their decision to amend the story.A spokeswoman for TMZ did not respond to an email and call seeking comment.There are circumstances where publishing images of dead bodies is journalistically defensible, said Kelly McBride, chair of the Craig Newmark Center for Ethics and Leadership at the Poynter Institute. But such cases are those where the photos call attention to an important story that has a strong public interest element, such as harrowing conditions for migrant children.In those cases, news outlets should be able to explain the decision to take the extraordinary step of publishing sensitive images, she said.“When you don’t have a journalistic purpose, and you find yourself on the receiving end of criticism from your audience, you often are defensive and you have to walk your decisions back,” Ms. McBride said.Sean Elliot, the ethics committee chair for the National Press Photographers Association, said that photo editors should apply reasonable editorial judgment to difficult publishing decisions.“Is this person famous enough, and is their death significant enough that it’s a cultural touchstone?” Mr. Elliot said. “That’s a judgment that only TMZ can make for itself.” More