Markus Andrews

Russian troops in eastern Ukraine are likely to be forced to take an “operational pause” after slow and grinding advances over recent weeks have left little more than 50 per cent of the forces initially deployed by Vladimir Putin in a state of combat effectiveness, Western officials have said.Officials said the Russians face a series of perilous river crossings and are showing signs of “disillusionment” with the campaign, not only among rank-and-file soldiers but also senior officers.With Ukrainian defences soon to be bolstered by HIMARS rocket systems, supplied by US president Joe Biden, Russia will face increasingly effective resistance to its attempts to secure ground in the Donbas region, said one.But the official warned that HIMARS, which is capable of firing multiple precision-guided missiles at targets up to 50 miles away, would not on its own be enough to “turn the tide of the campaign”.In the absence of a negotiated ceasefire, the current war of attrition can be expected to continue for “a long period of time” – potentially to the end of this year or beyond – and Ukraine’s allies must be prepared to maintain their commitment for the long term, he said.The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) has long been requested by Ukraine, but the US had until now refused to supply the weapons out of fear they could be used against targets in Russia.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the US was “directly and intentionally adding fuel to the fire” with its weapons deliveries to Ukraine.One Western official said: “That weapons system will enable counter-battery fire to be able to go after Russian artillery in a deeper and more effective way, but it’s also going to enable Ukrainian forces to be able to interdict Russian supply lines.“That’s going to be a real complication for Russian forces, as and when these weapon systems arrive and they can be effectively employed.”But he added: “The provision of HIMARS alone… is not going to turn the tide of the campaign. It’s going to enable the Ukrainians to be much more effective in the way they operate, but this needs to be – and is – set in a much wider package of support.”Western officials believe the total number of fatalities suffered by Russia since the 24 February invasion is now above 15,000, with more than 40,000 wounded. The bulk of casualties came in the early weeks of the war.Numbers of casualties have declined in recent weeks, largely because Moscow has narrowed the size of its front in eastern Ukraine and taken fewer risks with its troops.But the lack of adequate medical support for many of the units in Ukraine means that many of those injured are unable to access treatment.Following recent advances, one Western official said that there was “absolutely” going to be a need for an operational pause for the Russians to resupply and reconstitute their forces before attempting a further push towards the towns of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.“This has been quite a slugged-out fight in Seyevrodonetsk, and Russian commanders – having rushed to failure at various points in this campaign – I think will be very careful before thinking that they’re in a position to continue to exploit immediately,” said the official.Preparations would be needed for “significant” challenges from river crossings on the way to Kramatorsk, which represent “probably one of the most difficult things any military force can try to do”, and which Russian forces had struggled with earlier in the campaign, he said.These challenges would be faced in a situation where morale on the Russian side appears to be low, according to Western officials.“The morale of the Ukrainian forces is extremely high, and even though they’re coming under some significant pressure, their performance on the battlefield remains potent,” said one. “Even when they’re faced at times with sometimes overwhelming odds locally, they still continue to fight in a pretty ferocious and determined way.“Contrastingly for Russian forces, there are clear elements where we’ve seen low morale. We’ve seen that in some particular units where units have pretty much downed tools and declared that they don’t want to fight.“What’s really interesting is that we’re seeing disillusionment with the nature of the campaign not just amongst junior soldiers, but we’re seeing reflections amongst senior officers, that they’re disillusioned with the campaign as well. This isn’t outbreaks of low morale amongst junior, young, inexperienced soldiers, but that feeling is happening with groups across the Russian military.” More

Boris Johnson has admitted the Partygate saga has been a “totally miserable experience” for him and those working in Whitehall, but insisted he would not resign.The prime minister was grilled over the scandal by Mumsnet users on Wednesday – with one member asking him how the public could believe a “habitual liar”.Mr Johnson “apologised very much” for his behaviour, but said he was “very, very surprised and taken aback” to be fined by the Metropolitan Police for attending a birthday party in his honour in June 2020.He added: “I can totally see how infuriating it is that people like me were not fulfilling the letter of the rules ourselves. I totally understand that.”Asked about the political pressure he is now under, Mr Johnson acknowledged: “I’m not going to deny the whole thing hasn’t been a totally miserable experience for people in government.”But he insisted he would not resign. “I just cannot see how actually it would be responsible right now, given everything that is going on, simply to abandon … the project on which I embarked to level up.”The PM added: “On why I am still here – I am still here because we have got huge pressures economically and we’ve got the biggest war in Europe for 80 years, and we have got a massive agenda to deliver.”Mr Johnson also revealed that he did not eat any birthday cake at the June 2020 event which saw him receive a fixed penalty notice for a breach of his Covid laws.“If you’re talking about that miserable event that appeared on the front page of newspapers, no cake was consumed by me – I can tell you that much,” he joked.Explaining his attendance at the birthday bash, he said: “If people look at the event in question, it felt to me like a work event. I was there for a very short period of time.”Referring to his attendance at several leaving drinks, for which he was not punished, the PM said: “I genuinely believed that what I was doing – and I know why people may think it’s not good enough – but what I believed I was doing was saying goodbye briefly to hard-working staff.”He added: “What I thought was doing was right for a leader, in any circumstances, and that was to thank people for their service.”Mr Johnson also vowed that the government would continue to use “fiscal firepower” to address the cost of living crisis as energy bills and food prices soar.Asked how he could understand the struggles of the worst-off families, the PM said: “I try as much as I can to talk to my constituents. I recognise the country is going through a tough time.”He also promised that the government would do more to promote an existing £2,000 childcare grant. “There are things that aren’t working right. The take-up is disappointingly low … About a million people who are eligible don’t take it up. And that’s crazy.”Mr Johnson also said he was “doing a lot” as a parent at the moment – revealing that he had “changed a lot of nappies recently”.He said the Dr Suess books were his favourite as a child, quoting the line: “This was no time for play. This was no time for fun. This was no time for games. There was work to be done”. He claimed it was the “motto” at No 10.It comes as Dominic Raab dismissed the idea that Mr Johnson could face a confidence vote as early as next week – insisting that the speculation was only “Westminster froth”. He told the BBC: “I don’t think this ends in a leadership challenge.”There is a growing belief it is only a matter of time before the threshold of 54 no-confidence letters needed to trigger a vote is reached, with more than 40 MPs openly questioning his leadership.Mr Raab said he “doubts” that as many as 40 MPs have submitted letters, and predicted that rebels were “pretty far off” triggering a vote.In a letter to a constituent, Tory MP Simon Fell said he was left “angry and disappointed” by the Sue Gray report – saying a “corrosive culture and failure of leadership” during Partygate.However, the MP for Barrow & Furness said the saga had been a “very sorry distraction” to the government’s agenda, with no suggestion that he had sent a letter of no-confidence.Tory MP Huw Merriman confirmed he would not be submitting a no confidence letter against Mr Johnson, and appealed for colleagues to focus on delivering policies rather than regime change.“My appeal to colleagues is that our constituents need us right now and they need the government to deliver and parliament to deliver,” he told Sky News. “We’re not going to be able to do that if we are going through a protracted leadership contest.” More

Carrie Johnson once dismissed the interior decor at Downing Street as a “John Lewis nightmare”.But now it seems middle-class shoppers at the partnership’s supermarkets have been identified as the group that can keep her husband Boris in power.“Waitrose woman” is reported to be the voter demographic Downing Street reckons is crucial if the prime minister is to reverse plummeting ratings and defy rebellious Tory MPs in the wake of both Partygate and the cost of living crisis. More

Royal Navy ships could be sent into action against Russian’s Black Sea blockade of Ukraine, a Tory MP who leads the UK’s parliamentary delegation to Nato has suggested.Alec Shelbrooke said that British warships could have to use “lethal defensive force” against Russia’s forces as part of a mission to escort vital grain supplies out of Ukrainian ports, at the “high risk” of deaths of UK personnel and the escalation of war in Europe.In a message to constituents, Mr Shelbrooke said that a challenge to Boris Johnson’s leadership would be “an indulgence” at a time when the prime minister is playing a prominent role in the global response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion.He said that the possibility of a Joint Expeditionary Force of naval vessels to break the Black Sea blockade was being actively discussed at the Nato parliamentary assembly, which brings together lawmakers from all of the military alliance’s member states.Due to Ukraine’s position as a breadbasket nation which supplies a major proportion of the world’s grain, Mr Shelbrooke warned that poor countries face starvation and Britain will see “limitless” food inflation unless a way is found to export its crops.“In the Nato assembly, my conversations are now focussing on the possible need to put together a Joint Expeditionary Force of naval vessels, potentially made up from the Royal Navy, allies and non-Nato allies, to escort the grain out of Ukraine,” said the MP for Elmet and Rothwell, in west Yorkshire. “This would be a dangerous task and we must be prepared that we may need to engage in lethal defensive force against the Russian Naval sea blockade. This would certainly run the risk of escalating the war in Europe, and a high risk of death to British service personnel serving in any Joint Expeditionary Force. “If we do not properly consider such a mission, then I believe we risk hyper-inflation on food prices at home, and starvation in the third world which will undoubtedly lead to yet further influxes of refugees into Europe.“The prime minister and his ministers are in daily meetings about the war in Ukraine and the critical global food crisis, and this corporate memory about the intricacies of the UK’s involvement, and his diplomatic relationships, are critical in trying to find a peaceful solution to getting the grain out of Ukraine and onto the tables of families across the world.” More

Dominic Raab said the story of a mother skipping meals to feed her son “breaks your heart” – but rejected calls to expand free school meals ahead of the summer holidays.The deputy prime minister was grilled about the plight of Emma, forced to rejected her son’s request that she eat breakfast because he had not “seen you eat in days”.“I read that story – it just breaks your heart and melts your heart,” Mr Raab told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. “And that’s why dealing with the cost of living challenge is so important.”Asked again about families struggling to get enough to eat, the deputy PM said: “Look, I’ve got kids – I can’t imagine my children being in a position to say that to their mum.”But the senior cabinet minister ruled out an expansion of the free school meals, following calls from teaching unions and charities to widen it out to all families on Universal Credit.“I think the question fairly is whether applying free school meals to everyone on UC [Universal Credit] actually will target the most vulnerable in our society,” said Mr Raab.The deputy PM added: “I’m not convinced it’s the most targeted way of dealing with the most vulnerable.” Mr Raab said the government’s approach to helping those in hardship had been to “increase the money” put in the Household Support Fund – which allow councils to give out crisis payments or provide more to local charities.Chancellor Rishi Sunak has committed an extra £500m to the fund. Mr Raab also pointed to the £200m put into the holiday activities and food programme.However, a group of 11 education groups said existing support was not enough, calling on ministers to make an “urgent” expansion so all children from families who receive universal credit are eligible.The Department for Education states that those on universal credit must have an annual income of less than £7,400 to be eligible for free school meals.Around 1.7 million children are currently eligible to receive free school meals, but the Food Foundation has estimated that 2.6 million children live in households that missed meals or struggled to access food.Geoff Barton, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, also said the existing holiday food scheme only covered part of the holidays and required children to attend activities.Just 495,000 children on free school meals accessed food in the school holidays through the government-funded activity clubs last year, according to the recent independent National Food Strategy report.Cost of Living: How to Get HelpThe cost of living crisis has touched every corner of the UK, pushing families to the brink with rising food and fuel prices.The Independent has asked experts to explain small ways you can stretch your money, including managing debt and obtaining items for free.If you need to access a food bank, find your local council’s website using gov.uk and then use the local authority’s site to locate your nearest centre. The Trussell Trust, which runs many foodbanks, has a similar tool.Citizens Advice provides free help to people in need. The organisation can help you find grants or benefits, or advise on rent, debt and budgeting.If you are experiencing feelings of distress and isolation, or are struggling to cope, The Samaritans offers support; you can speak to someone for free over the phone, in confidence, on 116 123 (UK and ROI), email [email protected], or visit the Samaritans website to find details of your nearest branch.Labour’s shadow levelling up secretary Lisa Nandy told The Independent: “It was so striking for me during the last few school holidays, when the government was refusing to keep free school meals going, how councils and businesses across the country stepped up and did it anyway.”She added: “That’s communities coming together to level themselves up. Imagine what they could do with a government that backed them.”Both Justine Greening, the former Tory education secretary, and Alan Johnson, ex-Labour education secretary, both backed the idea of expanding free school meals before the summer holiday.As well as expanding eligibility, Ms Greening said the government should “put in place proper summer holiday provision and revisit the school meals funding that schools get to make sure it’s not eroded by inflation”.Emma, a mum struggling to pay bills despite working three jobs, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that she had told son to put one bowl away after he had prepared two bowls of breakfast cereal.“They’re not both for me, mum,” he said. “One of them’s for you because I haven’t seen you eat in days. At least I’ll know you’ve eaten today.” More

Dominic Raab has dismissed the idea that Boris Johnson could face a confidence vote as early as next week – dismissing the speculation as “Westminster froth”.The deputy prime minister said the mood at the top of government was “fine” despite a growing number of Conservative MPs calling on the PM to resign.There is a growing belief it is only a matter of time before the threshold of 54 no-confidence letters needed to trigger a vote is reached, with more than 40 MPs openly questioning his leadership.Asked if a leadership vote could come next week, Mr Raab told Sky News: “No … I think those in the Westminster bubble and village whips this stuff up. I’m not saying [Partygate] is not serious and significant – but we’ve dealt with all of those issues.”The senior cabinet minister also told BBC Breakfast: “I don’t think this ends in a leadership challenge.”Mr Raab said he “doubts” that as many as 40 MPs have submitted letters, said rebels were “pretty far off” triggering a vote, and played down criticism made by ex-minister and Johnson ally Dame Andrea Leadsom on Tuesday.“I think it’s clear that she’s expressing her frustration, she hasn’t put a letter in as far as I understand, she hasn’t said that,” the deputy PM told Times Radio.He added: “Votes of no-confidence, leadership contests, is yet more Westminster talking to itself, … and I think the vast majority of MPs recognise and agree with that.”The justice secretary also dismissed speculation that Mr Johnson could call an early general election this year as a chance to revive his premiership – saying it was “very unlikely”.Backbench critics of Mr Johnson told The Independent they were worried that the PM would narrowly win a confidence vote by securing the support of more than half of his MPs – then trigger an early general election in a bid to reassert control.“I think he might try to manufacture an election because it would be the only way he could reassert his authority,” said one Tory MP. Mr Raab did not deny reports that No 10 is preparing regular, Covid-style press conferences on the economy as part of plan to revive the PM’s fortunes. “That will be for No 10 and the comms team to decide,” he said.The deputy PM also said he was “not privy to the conversation” following reports that Lord Geidt is ready to resign as Mr Johnson’s ethics adviser. “I hope he continues to do [the job],” said Mr Raab.In an exchange of letters on Tuesday, Lord Geidt said Mr Johnson must explain why his fixed penalty notice (FPN) over his birthday party did not breach the ministerial code.He said a “legitimate question” had arisen as to whether the fine might have constituted a breach of the “overarching duty within the ministerial code of complying with the law”.Lord Geidt, the independent adviser on the code, also questioned the PM’s willingness to “take responsibility for his own conduct” in relation to the rules and delivered a withering assessment of exchanges with No 10 officials.Mr Johnson, in a letter released on Tuesday evening, responded by claiming the FPN “did not breach” the ministerial code as there was “no intent to break the law”.Meanwhile, the treasurer of the 1922 Committee has warned Tory MPs that ousting Mr Johnson would mean a leadership vacuum during a “really serious situation”.Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown claimed a leadership contest would take at least eight weeks because of the lack of an obvious successor. “I think at the moment for me, we should leave matters as they are,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. More

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s office has listed scrapping EU regulations on vacuum cleaners as one of the “most interesting” ideas it has received for how to capitalise on the UK’s newfound Brexit freedom.Following his appointment in February as minister for Brexit opportunities and government efficiency, Mr Rees-Mogg launched an appeal in the Daily Express for the paper’s readers to come forward with ideas for how he could fulfil his new brief.“Government is not the centre of all knowledge and wisdom. Actually there is a much greater wisdom with the British people as a whole,” Mr Rees-Mogg had said, pledging to push to get rid of “what it is in their daily life that the government does that makes their life harder”.The British public is claimed to have responded “with enthusiasm”, and the government has reportedly received some 2,000 ideas since the appeal was launched.As Boris Johnson battles with increasing calls for his resignation from Tory MPs over the Partygate scandal, the top nine “most interesting” of these proposals have now been published in the Daily Express.Second on the list of ideas handpicked by Mr Rees-Mogg’s office was to “abolish the EU regulations that restrict vacuum cleaner power to 1400W”.The bloc’s pro-environmental regulations on vacuum cleaners were actually extended in 2017 to include all machines using more than 900W and emitting more than 80 decibels – effectively those emitting more noise and heat than suction.While critics have suggested that people merely use their vacuum cleaners for longer, experts have previously said that premium low-power machines clean just as well as those of a high-wattage, with some manufacturers alleged to deliberately increase wattage to woo shoppers who equate it with better performance. Current analysis suggests that households using a 1,400W vacuum cleaner would spend 39.2p per hour, compared to 18.2p for someone using a 650W appliance.At the top of the list was a suggestion to “encourage fracking” – upon which the government reluctantly placed a moratorium in 2019, after scientific analysis found it was impossible to predict the likelihood and magnitude of associated earth tremors, which had occurred close to sites on multiple occasions.According to the post-Brexit suggestion cited by Mr Rees-Mogg’s office, the government could “shortcut rules on planning consultation” via emergency legislation. Documents uncovered shortly after the effective ban was imposed three years ago show this idea predates the UK’s exit from the EU, with Whitehall officials having been mulling ways in which planning and public consultation processes around fracking could be made faster and “more predictable”.Just last month, business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng ordered a fresh review into the scientific evidence around fracking as the government considers “all possible domestic energy sources” in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and soaring energy prices.While the UK was just one of many EU countries to introduce their own moratoriums on fracking, experts say the government’s decision to re-examine shale gas extraction marks a departure from European Union regulations.They point to the UK’s proposed divergence from the bloc’s interpretation of the “precautionary principle” – a legal approach which permits restriction of an activity carrying a potential environmental risk – towards one which prioritises “innovation” over risk management, similarly to the US.Third on Mr Rees-Mogg’s list was a suggestion to “remove precautionary principle restrictions (for instance) on early use of experimental treatments for seriously ill patients and GM crops”.Other suggestions included the abolition of rules around the size of vans requiring an operator’s licence, and of the limits on electrical power levels of electric bicycles, Express readers also suggested the government could allow medical professionals such as pharmacists and paramedics to qualify in three years, simplify the calculation of holiday pay, and reduce requirements for businesses to conduct fixed wire testing and portable application testing. More

The government has taken “no final decision” on its plan to house 1,500 asylum seekers at a former RAF base in a small North Yorkshire village, it has emerged.Announced by the Home Office last month, the idea prompted outrage from residents in Linton-on-Ouse, which is currently home to around 600 people.The local MP Kevin Hollinrake also said he disapproved of the proposal, as did Hambleton district council, which threatened to take legal action against the government.Although the first 60 asylum seekers were supposed to arrive at RAF Linton by Tuesday, ministers have seemingly decided to delay its conversion into a processing centre that has already dubbed Guantanamo-on-Ouse.In a leaked letter sent to the head of the district council, a senior civil servant wrote that the matter was still under consideration.“I can confirm that no final decision has been taken by ministers to accommodate asylum seekers at RAF Linton,” they wrote.“I can confirm that where obligations relating to consultation with the council, community and other stakeholders exist they will be fulfilled.”When asked by The Independent, the Home Office did not deny that the plan had been put on hold.“We maintain the site is urgently needed to provide essential asylum accommodation and will assist as we end the use of asylum seekers using hotels which are costing the taxpayer almost £5million a day,” it said in a statement.It added that it was “listening to community feedback” and maintained that the site would be “as self-sufficient as possible”.Mr Hollinrake, the MP whose constituency contains Linton-on-Ouse, previously told parliament that its villagers were “sacrificial lambs to a national policy”.The politician now hopes the idea will be shelved altogether. Speaking of the government’s delay in opening the centre, he said: “What it infers is that they’re still thinking whether this is the right place to go to, so I’m hopeful on that basis that they might be thinking again.”This comes a month after he told The Independent it was the wrong location for the asylum centre. “It’s not realistic. As the Home Office guidance stipulates, it should be a major conurbation, one that has access to towns and cities, where one can access public services.”At the same time, charities raised concerns about the suitability of using a disused RAF base as a processing centre, noting the bad conditions asylum seekers endured at Napier Barracks in Kent.“It is astonishing that, despite severe concerns raised around the neglect and horrendous conditions asylum seekers were forced to endure in Napier Barracks, the government intends to replicate these conditions in another isolated army barracks,” Sophie McCann, advocacy advisor for Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) UK, said. More