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Boris Johnson’s government must boost the NHS budget by around £10bn or crucial services will have to be cut, two major organisations representing the health service have warned.Almost half of the extra money will be needed to cover costs related to the Covid crisis, said NHS Providers and the NHS Confederation said.But billions more will be needed to help tackle the huge waiting lists for operations and other procedures, the organisations said in report revealing the costs facing the health service in England.The two bodies said their assessment is based on a survey of England’s 213 hospital, mental health, community and ambulance trusts – which together spend almost two-thirds of the NHS budget.Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, which represents healthcare organisations across the country, said: “Trust leaders are worried that anything short of £10bn next year will force them to cut services.”The health service chief added: “They are worried that, despite best efforts at the frontline, the 13 million waiting list they are desperate to avoid will become inevitable. And this backlog will take five to seven, not two to three, years to clear.”The joint report, entitled A Reckoning: The Continuing Cost of Covid-19, some £4.6bn will be required to cover costs linked to Covid, while between £3.5bn and £4.5bn would be needed to tackle backlogs in care.Mr Taylor NHS trust leaders were worried funding issues would add to the pressure on A&E departments and put planned improvements in areas like cancer and cardiac care set will be put at risk.Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospital and ambulance trusts, said: “The government has said that we must learn to live with Covid. That means they must fully recognise the extent, length and cost of the impact of Covid-19 on the NHS.”In a joint statement, the two leaders said that “health outcomes for millions of patients” in was dependent on the government’s next spending review decision.“Patients genuinely are at peril. The government has to demonstrate that the NHS is safe in its hands. Frontline NHS leaders cannot stand idly by if they are forced to cut services, putting patients at risk,” they added.Responding to the joint report, the Royal College of Surgeons of England said the government’s funding plans “made before the pandemic are no longer fit for purpose”.President of the college, Prof Neil Mortensen, warned: “If the government doesn’t act, the record waiting list we see now of 5.45 million [patients] could double, with dire economic and human consequences.”Health secretary Sajid Javid recently said he was “shocked” when officials warned him that the backlog for routine operations and procedures in England could reach 13 million patients. “It’s going to be one of my top priorities to deal with because we can’t have that,” he pledged. The NHS has been under serious strain from rising patient numbers this summer. Hospitals have been forced to issue a “black alert” – an emergency warning they are under severe pressure – over bed shortages in recent weeks.Two major London hospitals told The Independent last month that they had declared “black alert” incidents due to bed shortages as well as rising numbers of people turning up in A&E.A government spokesperson said: “We are committed to making sure the NHS has everything it needs to continue providing excellent care to the public as we tackle the backlogs that have built up during the pandemic.”“This year alone we have already provided a further £29bn to support health and care services, including an extra £1bn to tackle the backlog. This is on top of our historic settlement for the NHS in 2018, which will see its budget rise by £33.9bn by 2023/24.” More

The SNP has indicated that Nicola Sturgeon’s government would be ready to negotiate any proposal to move Trident overseas in the event of Scottish independence, amid reports the nuclear subs could be docked in US or France.The UK’s nuclear deterrent could be moved abroad in the event Scotland opts for a breakaway, according to a report detailing “secret” government contingency plans.Referring to the report in the Financial Times about the possibility of the stockpile being moved overseas, SNP MP Stewart McDonald, the party’s defence spokesperson, said: “An independent Scotland will not be home to nuclear weapons.“Negotiating their removal will be one of the most important tasks a newly independent Scotland will face, and capitals across Europe will be looking to Edinburgh for assurance that we will be a reliable and trustworthy partner.”The SNP frontbencher added: “Safety and security will be the top principle that informs the process of the departure – which will happen at pace.”The Royal Navy’s base at Faslane on the west coast of Scotland is home to the UK’s nuclear submarines, but “senior officials” told the FT they could be moved to naval bases in the US or France if Scotland votes Yes in a second referendum on independence.The newspaper also reports that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) could keep them within an independent Scotland by creating a new British Overseas Territory some have described as a “nuclear Gibraltar”.Mr McDonald made clear an independent Scotland would not accept any proposal to keep Trident north of the border. “With a clear cross-party majority of Scotland’s elected politicians opposed to Trident, there is no possible parliamentary arithmetic that would allow these weapons to be kept at Faslane.”The preferred option would be to move the nuclear deterrent to the Royal Navy base at Devonport in Plymouth, according to the report.However, a spokesman for the MoD denied there are any plans to move the submarines. “The UK is strongly committed to maintaining its credible and independent nuclear deterrent at HM Naval Base Clyde, which exists to deter the most extreme threats to the UK and our Nato allies,” said a spokesman.“There are no plans to move the nuclear deterrent from HM Naval Base Clyde (Faslane), which contributes to Scotland’s and the wider UK’s security and economy, and its supporting facilities are safe for local communities.”A Scottish government spokeswoman said: “The Scottish government firmly oppose the possession, threat and use of nuclear weapons and we are committed to the safe and complete withdrawal of Trident from Scotland.” More

The UK needs to “get on with” its Covid-19 booster vaccine programme and should offer the additional jabs “not just to the clinically vulnerable, but to everyone,” former health secretary Jeremy Hunt has said.He made the remarks in the wake of revelations on Wednesday that around half a million Britons aged 12 and over, who have severely weakened immune systems and are most at risk from Covid, would be offered a third dose of vaccine, following a recommendation from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).However, Sajid Javid, the current health secretary, stressed that the announcement was separate to any decision on a booster programme, which is expected later this month. Mr Hunt, who chairs the Commons health and social care committee, advised UK officials to follow Israel’s lead in widening the booster recipient pool to include more than just the clinically vulnerable.He said the situation in the middle-eastern country, where the booster campaign that began in July with those aged over 60 has now been expanded to include anyone aged over 12, should be a “clear lesson for the UK”.“I understand why there is an ethical debate about giving jabs to teenagers, but surely Israel shows we should not be hanging around in getting booster jabs out to adults,” the Conservative MP told The Times.It echoed a lengthy Twitter thread Mr Hunt published last night in which he said “the third dose campaign is clearly working”. Alongside a graphic of Israel’s Covid data, which claimed to show the significant impact booster jabs have had on the nation’s “severely ill hospitalised patients”, Mr Hunt wrote: “There was a big drop in rate of growth of severely ill patients two weeks after it started.”He added: “The clear lesson for the UK seems to be…get on with booster jabs, not just for the clinically vulnerable but for everyone. The latest Zoe study showed vaccine effectiveness dropping after six months, so why are we hanging around?“Hopefully Sajid Javid will have more to say on this in parliament next week.”Asked about Mr Hunt’s comments on Thursday, Professor Anthony Harnden, the JCVI’s deputy chairman, said it was “highly likely” the UK would enforce a booster vaccine programme – but that careful consideration was going into the timing of a third dose. He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the independent body would hand its advice to the government in the next few weeks.“I think it’s highly likely that there will be a booster programme. It’s just the question of how we frame it. This will be decided over the next few weeks. I can’t definitively say that there will be because we have not made that decision yet, but it is highly likely,” he said.Prof Harnden also said the JCVI was waiting for the results of a study looking at different vaccines as a booster dose, and was considering who would be eligible and when would be the best time for them to receive it.“We need to look at all that data. What we don’t want to do is boost people and then find we have a new variant and we can’t boost them again because we’ve boosted them too soon and those people might not have needed the booster in the first place,” he told the morning programme. The debate around booster jabs intensified this week after a new study, carried out by researchers at King’s College London (KCL), suggested having two vaccine doses almost halves the likelihood of long Covid in adults who get coronavirus.Researchers at KCL also found that being admitted to hospital with the virus was 73 per cent less likely, and the chances of severe symptoms were reduced by almost a third in the fully vaccinated.Dr Claire Steves, the study’s lead researcher, weighed in on the discussion and said the focus of the UK’s booster jab programme should be on identifying the “really-at-risk” groups.The government’s announcement “that individuals who are immunocompromised are going to be given a sort of third primary injection … is the kind of thing that we need to be thinking about, identifying really-at-risk groups to make sure that they go in first,” she told the Today programme. More

Foreign secretary Dominic Raab has called for the creation of an “international coalition”, including regional states as well as Western powers, to exert “maximum moderating influence” on the Taliban government in Afghanistan.Speaking during a visit to Gulf emirate Qatar, Mr Raab said that the UK will be “pragmatic and realistic” in its approach to the Taliban and sees scope for “engagement and dialogue” with the militant group, but would not be recognising the new regime in Kabul.Qatar is understood to have used its links with the Taliban leadership to exert pressure for the group to co-operate with the evacuation of international forces from Kabul’s airport following the fall of the Afghan capital.Amid reports that the airport is already reopening for domestic travel, Qatari foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said he was hopeful of “good news” within the next few days on the restoration of international flights, which could hold the key to the removal of thousands of Afghans left behind in last week’s evacuation.Mr Raab said he felt “a responsibility” to those still waiting to leave for the UK either via the airport or by crossing the borders into neighbouring countries.“We need to adjust to the new reality and our immediate priority is to secure the safe passage of those remaining British nationals, but also the Afghans who worked for the United Kingdom, and indeed others who may be at most risk,” said the foreign secretary. “We’re working closely on that and looking at the practicalities of how that can work. The UK sent a rapid deployment team to this region, because we want to make sure working with third countries that we can process, both the nationals but also the Afghan workers.”On his first trip to the region since the fall of Kabul on 15 August, Mr Raab made clear he is hoping to forge a common front with Afghanistan’s neighbours on dealing with the Taliban and holding them to account over commitments to inclusive government, human rights and respect for women and girls.“I think it’ll be important to build an international coalition, and our Qatari friends are clearly an influential lynchpin player in that,” he said. “We are working with our G7 presidency, our Nato membership, we secured with the French, the Germans and the other members of the Security Council a resolution which provided a good framework that all countries should be able to agree on as a way to move forward.“Now we need to get wider buy-in from the regional countries involved. “I think above all we need to put a grouping together that can exert maximum moderating influence on what the Taliban does next. We’ll certainly keep working with all of those partners… to make sure that we can preserve the gains that have been made in Afghanistan over the last 20 years and continue to support the Afghan people.” More

The vice-chancellor of Oxford University has admitted she is “embarrassed” that Michael Gove once studied at the institution, on account of remarks the politician made about “experts” in the run up to the 2016 Brexit referendum. Mr Gove, then the justice secretary, was largely slated when he claimed – three weeks before Britain voted to leave the EU – that “people in this country have had enough of experts”, after being asked by a Sky News journalist to name a single economist who backed the divorce. The remark was considered controversial enough that a pair of academics from the University of Sheffield spent years conducting research into its validity. Dr Katharine Dommett and Dr Warren Pearce’s paper, published in the Public Understanding of Science journal in 2019, ultimately found that there was “insufficient evidence to support” what Mr Gove had said. Revisiting the incident on Wednesday, Professor Louise Richardson, Oxford’s vice-chancellor, said the development of Covid-19 vaccines proved the exact opposite around the public’s opinion of experts was true. Speaking on a panel at Times Higher Education (THE)’s World Academic Summit, Prof Richardson said: “Michael Gove, the British cabinet minister. who I am embarrassed to confess we educated, famously said after it was pointed out to him by a journalist that all the experts opposed Brexit, he said: ‘Oh we’ve had enough of experts.’“With the [Covid] vaccine, it seems like the public can’t get enough of experts. Many of our scientists have become household names.“We have demonstrated through the vaccine work and the development of therapeutics and so on just how much universities can contribute and that’s enormously helpful to our cause.”Her comments came on the same night that the University of Oxford’s Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert, Dr Catherine Green, and the entire team behind the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, won the Hero award at GQ magazine’s annual Men of the Year Awards 2021. Mr Gove, now the chancellor of the duchy of Lancaster, studied English at Oxford’s Lady Margaret Hall from 1985-88, during which time he joined the Conservative Party and was elected president of the Oxford Union debating society.He is yet to comment on the remarks made by his alma mater, which was recently named the first university ever to hold the No 1 position in an international league table for six years in a row.Prof Richardson, who spoke at THE’s event alongside other vice-chancellors from around the world, also argued that universities need more “ideological diversity” and controversial debate to avoid “losing the public argument” over whether they are out of touch.She warned that “culture wars” and the perception that universities were “bastions of snowflakes” were “deliberately being fanned” by sections of the media and some politicians.This adds to a growing perception among non-graduates, Prof Richardson said, that “their taxes are paying for these utterly overprivileged students”.She told those at the summit: “Increasingly people are seeing that they haven’t gone to university and yet their taxes are paying for these utterly overprivileged students who want all kinds of protections that they never had and I think we have to take this seriously.“We need to teach our students how to engage civilly in reasoned debate with people with whom we disagree powerfully because, unless we do that, we are going to lose the public argument.”Meanwhile, Mr Gove faced further embarrassment this week after footage surfaced of him dancing in his suit at an Aberdeen nightclub over the weekend. The clip – which shows the Cabinet minister partying at the Bohemia nightclub to techno music – quickly went viral, and was later edited into a scene from the popular Nineties film Trainspotting.The University of Oxford has been approached for comment about Prof Richardson’s remarks. More

The NHS is “ready and eager” to deliver the Covid vaccine to school children between the ages of 12 and 15, education secretary Gavin Williamson has said.The cabinet minister said he “hoped” the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) – the expert body advising the government on the programme – would soon recommend jabs for children under 16.Heaping pressure on the JCVI to make a decision, Mr Williamson claimed both the health service and schools would be ready to deliver a programme of jabs for teenagers “at pace”.He told BBC Breakfast: “A lot of us are very keen to hear that and very much hope we’re in a position to roll out vaccinations for those who are under of 16. I’m certainly hoping it’s a decision that will be made very, very soon.”The education secretary also told Sky News that the NHS is “ready and eager to go in terms of delivering that vaccination programme for children”.Mr Williamson added: “Speaking as a parent myself I think parents would find it incredible reassuring to know they had a choice as to whether their child would be vaccinated or not.”The minister said school leaders had experience in organising vaccinations and had “systems of consent” in place to get approval from parents. “We’re ready – if we’re get the get go from the JCVI, we’re ready.”Mr Williamson added: “We’ll obviously be looking to do that at pace if we get approval. I very much wait with bated breath the decision from JCVI.”But the government’s JCVI advisers are thought to be resisting the intense political pressure to give the go-ahead for Covid jabs for 12 to 15-year-olds because of fears it could disrupt the programme of boosters for vulnerable older people.A person close to the JCVI told The Independent that there is “a need to consider how to prioritise boosters for vulnerable groups and a campaign for that, along with getting people to have their second doses before trying to launch a schools programme”.But Mr Williamson insisted that there was the capacity to both give Covid vaccinations to 12 to 15-year-olds and deliver a booster programme. “We’ve got the capacity to be able to deliver vaccinations for children as well as deliver a booster programme, so it’s not either-or.”As the new school year starts this week for many students in England, Mr Williamson said he would “move heaven and earth” to avoid shutting schools again – but did not rule out classes having to take place outside in the event of new Covid outbreaks.“It is certainly not something that we’d be expecting to see an awful lot of, especially in autumn and winter,” the education secretary told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.“This is why we’re doing the testing programme and we’re encouraging children to take part in it, parents, and of course teachers and support staff as well.”Asked why many schools did not yet have the CO2 monitors to improve ventilation of classrooms in a bid to reduce Covid outbreaks, Mr Williamson said: “They are being rolled out during this term.”Meanwhile, education bosses have written to Mr Williamson demanding an additional £5.8bn to help pupils in England whose learning has been affected by the pandemic.A letter to the education secretary – whose signatories included the Association of School and College Leaders and the Association of Colleges – said that not investing more in catch-up support now would lead to “greater costs down the line”.It comes as new research by the Institute of Fiscal Studies showed that school spending per pupil in England will remain lower than in 2010 following a decade of budget cuts.The think tank also said that disadvantaged pupils in the poorest parts of England have suffered from the biggest cuts over the decade of austerity. More

Foreign secretary Dominic Raab has flown to Qatar to hold talks about the government’s “top priority” of safely evacuating British nationals and Afghan interpreters from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.Mr Raab’s trip follows a grilling from MPs, where he was asked about a Foreign Office document from July – weeks before his holiday in Crete – suggesting the Taliban could advance rapidly across Afghanistan.A statement from the Foreign Office said the minister’s “immediate priority” was to help any remaining UK nationals and Afghans who supported the British mission to get to the UK.The foreign secretary will meet the Amir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and the deputy prime minister and foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani during his visit to Doha.Mr Raab will be briefed on talks between UK officials and the Taliban, and is expected to discuss the prospect of persuading the new regime to reopen Kabul airport.The Foreign Office said Mr Raab will discuss four key priorities for Afghanistan while in Doha, which include “preventing Afghanistan becoming a haven for terrorists, responding to the humanitarian plight, safeguarding regional stability, and holding the Taliban to account on human rights”.The British embassy to Afghanistan is now up and running in Doha, the Foreign Office said. Sir Nick Kay, former UK ambassador to Afghanistan, said he is sure there will be discussion “quite soon” about the options for restoring a British diplomatic presence within Kabul.As Mr Raab visits Doha, Foreign Office minister Lord Ahmad will travel to Tajikistan to discuss safe passage of those fleeing from Afghanistan. Boris Johnson is meanwhile expected to visit troops in the south east of England who helped with the evacuation.On Wednesday, Mr Raab told the Foreign Affairs Committee he could not give a “definitive answer” of how many people in Afghanistan who would be eligible for settlement in the UK under existing schemes have been “left behind”.Mr Raab faced sustained questioning from MPs on how the UK failed to predict the speed at which the Afghan government would fall to the Taliban, which seized Kabul on August 15.He told them the intelligence assessment was that “given the troop withdrawal by the end of August, you’d see a steady deterioration from that point and it was unlikely Kabul would fall this year”.But a Foreign Office document called a principal risk register, from 22 July, appeared to warn Afghanistan could fall to the Taliban much sooner than the UK had previously predicted.The document reportedly stated: “Peace talks are stalled and US Nato withdrawal is resulting in rapid Taliban advances. This could lead to: fall of cities, collapse of security forces, Taliban return to power, mass displacement and significant humanitarian need. The embassy may need to close if security deteriorates.”However, a Foreign Office spokesman said it was “wrong and misleading” to suggest the document was “at odds with our detailed assessments of the situation in Afghanistan or our public position throughout the crisis”.They added: “The July document makes clear that our central planning assumption at the time was that the peace process in Afghanistan would run for up to a further six months.”Mr Raab was also pressed by MPs about his holiday to Crete in mid-August as the Taliban surrounded Kabul, but he refused to offer further details, labelling the questions a “fishing expedition”.Labour MP Lisa Nandy MP, shadow foreign secretary, said the committee hearing had been “a staggeringly poor showing from a foreign secretary who is completely out of his depth”.She added: “Despite his own department’s clear warnings weeks before Kabul fell, the foreign secretary was asleep at the wheel.”The Conservative chair of the Commons Defence Committee Tobias Ellwood told The Independent that Mr Raab’s appearance had bolstered his demand for a public inquiry into the UK’s handling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan.Meanwhile, defence secretary Ben Wallace appeared to strike back at Mr Raab’s assertion that intelligence was to blame for the UK being caught out by the speed of the Taliban takeover.In an interview with the Spectator magazine, Mr Wallace said: “I’ve already seen some lines about the failure of intelligence. History shows us that it’s not about failure of intelligence, it’s about the limits of intelligence.” More

The UK government has denied making secret plans to move its Trident nuclear submarines abroad in the event of Scottish independence.Several senior officials were cited by the Financial Times on Wednesday as saying they had been briefed on plans which could see Britain’s nuclear deterrents housed in France or the United States if Nicola Sturgeon’s governing Scottish National Party achieves its goal of Scotland seceding from the UK.Another option reportedly under being considered is for the UK to seek a long-term lease for the Royal Navy’s nuclear bases at their current location in Faslane and Coulport on the country’s west coast. Officials said this would create a British Overseas Territory within the borders of a newly independent Scotland, likened by one insider to a “nuclear Gibraltar”.However, the preferred route would be to move the nuclear deterrent to the Royal Navy base at Devonport in Plymouth, according to the paper.But a spokesperson for the MoD insisted there were “no plans” to move the submarines.“The UK is strongly committed to maintaining its credible and independent nuclear deterrent at HM Naval Base Clyde, which exists to deter the most extreme threats to the UK and our Nato allies,” they said.“There are no plans to move the nuclear deterrent from HM Naval Base Clyde, which contributes to Scotland’s and the wider UK’s security and economy, and its supporting facilities are safe for local communities.”“Contrary to a recent press report, the nuclear deterrent and the thousands of jobs which support it are staying in Scotland,” the department’s press office later wrote on Twitter.The housing of the UK’s nuclear deterrents on the Clyde has long been a central pillar of the independence argument in Scotland, however the longstanding assumption that a majority of Scottish people opposed nuclear weapons has been frequently challenged in polls indicating something closer to a 50-50 split.Responding to the report, the Scottish Government told the FT it firmly opposed the possession, threat and use of nuclear weapons and was “committed to the safe and complete withdrawal of Trident from Scotland”.Meanwhile, the question of a second independence referendum remains a live one, with Boris Johnson’s government having recently appeared to soften its previously rigid stance against a future vote.Speaking to Politico last week, Scotland secretary Alister Jack suggested the UK government could approve a fresh vote if polling showed support in Scotland for staging one remained above 60 per cent “over a reasonably long period”.Meanwhile, as her party agreed a power-sharing agreement with the pro-independence Scottish Greens, Ms Sturgeon insisted on Tuesday that she holds an “undeniable” mandate for a second vote, with the two parties together winning 72 of Holyrood’s 129 seats in May’s election.Both parties’ manifestos commit them only to a vote within the five-year term of the Scottish parliament, which runs to 2026, and Ms Sturgeon has indicated she will wait until the coronavirus crisis has abated to press for a vote.If Mr Johnson, who must authorise the request for a referendum under Article 30 of the Scotland Act, refuses to do so, the matter could end up in the Supreme Court. More