Markus Andrews

Boris Johnson’s approval rating has hit an all-time low, an opinion poll has indicated.In an online survey by pollster Opinium Research nearly half (49 percent) of respondents disapproved of the job Mr Johnson is doing as prime minister. Thirty-four percent approved.The percentage of those who disapprove is up two points from a fortnight ago.The PM’s net approval rating has also fallen to -16 percent, down from -13 percent a fortnight ago and the lowest recorded in the 53 times Opinium has asked the question.The decline in Mr Johnson’s personal rating came despite an increase in support for the government’s handling of the pandemic, from a net -16 percent a fortnight ago to -9 percent.The Tories’ poll lead remains relatively stable, dropping by one point over the past fortnight to 42 percent with Labour unchanged on 35 percent.A survey conducted by the Conservative Home website shows that Mr Johnson’s approval rating has also dipped among his own party members. The site’s Cabinet League Table saw the PMs ranking drop from 17th place to 24th place.Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer’s approval raring has also dipped from -6 percent to -11 percent, its joint-lowest in the Opinium series.Adam Drummond, Opinium’s head of political polling, said: “It’s only after rounding, but our latest poll shows Boris Johnson with his lowest approval rating of any of the 53 times we have asked the question since he became prime minister.“While the so-called ‘vaccine bounce’ he has been enjoying in recent months may be over, the Conservatives still enjoy a comfortable seven-point lead in the polls – partly off the back of Starmer’s similarly poor ratings.“But even as his ratings do drop, the prime ,inister should never be written off. He has bounced back from poor polling numbers before, and he may be able to do so again.Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,000 UK adults from August 5-6. Results were weighted to representative criteria. Additional reporting by Press Association More

Environment secretary George Eustice said it is an “arduous but necessary endeavour” to cull animals which test positive for bovine tuberculosis (bTB), as he defended the decision to put down Geronimo the alpaca.Helen Macdonald’s animal has been ordered for destruction after twice testing positive for the disease, but she has repeatedly questioned the tests used to condemn him.Mr Eustice said his own farming family had suffered the “soul destroying” slaughter of a cherished cow, Rose, due to bTB but he underlined the need to prevent the spread of the “insidious” disease.Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Mr Eustice said: “There has been a great deal of focus on the case of Geronimo the alpaca this week.“However, each week on average, we have to remove more than 500 cattle from herds due to infection in England alone. Behind every one of those cases is a farmer who has suffered loss and tragedy.“Farmers understand that infected animals are a risk to the remainder of their herd, so while the loss of individual animals is always a tragedy, the farming communities have worked with our Government vets in this arduous but necessary endeavour.”Mr Eustice said he first looked at Geronimo’s case more than three years ago and has examined it several times since.“Geronimo tested positive twice using a test called the ‘Enferplex’ test. It is the test that was requested by the British Alpaca Society at the time.”The test is “over 99 percent accurate with a ‘false positive’ in only 0.34 percent of cases”, he said.While it is accurate, it is not very sensitive – so in around 30 percent of cases it will not detect an infection even if the animal has bTB.“Two consecutive positive test results is a very strong indicator of the presence of the disease,” he said.Geronimo had four skin tests before he was exported from New Zealand, all of which were negative. The animal then had two blood tests and a skin test in the UK which were all positive.Ms Macdonald, a vet and alpaca breeder, who has a farm in south Gloucestershire, has claimed the UK tests carried out on the New Zealand-born male alpaca were inaccurate.She told the PA news agency on Friday: “It’s a total load of lies, the testing has never been validated.”She said if Mr Eustice is “willing to kill a healthy animal in front of the whole world without testing him properly first, then it’s a sorry state of affairs”.“And it will be for the world to see. Because if he sends some poor person down here with a gun to shoot Geronimo then it will get filmed by the world’s media,” she added.PA More

NHS waiting lists could reach 15 million or higher in the wake of Covid-19, and could remain on an “ever-rising trajectory” unless the capacity of the health service is boosted above pre-pandemic levels, a new report has warned.Even on the most optimistic scenarios, returning the waiting list to pre-pandemic levels by 2025 could cost the NHS an additional £2bn a year, placing a heavy demand on chancellor Rishi Sunak as he draws up plans for government expenditure in this autumn’s Spending Review, said the Institute for Fiscal Studies.Health secretary Sajid Javid shocked many last month with a warning that waiting lists could more than double from the current 5.3 million to hit 13 million by the end of the year, as many patients who have stayed away from hospitals during the pandemic come forward for treatment.But today’s IFS report found that Mr Javid’s forecast was “well within the realms of possibility”.And experts from the independent economic think tank said modelling suggested the backlog could rise beyond that level unless NHS capacity is boosted significantly above 2019 levels in what will be “a major and pressing challenge” for Mr Javid and new NHS chief executive Amanda Pritchard.NHS waiting lists have grown by just a million so far during the pandemic, despite there being three million fewer planned admissions and 17 million fewer outpatient appointments in the first 10 months alone. An estimated 7.4 million fewer people joined the backlog between March 2020 and May 2021 than would otherwise have been expected.Today’s report found that the “remarkably small” increase in the waiting list may have been due to a fall in accidents and injuries resulting from lockdown, changes in doctors’ referral practices or patients avoiding healthcare either out of fear of infection or a desire not to overburden the NHS.But at 5.3 million, the waiting list is already the longest it has been since the current definition was introduced in 2007 and more than twice the January 2009 figure of 2.3 million, when it was at its shortest.The key to the NHS’s immediate future will depend on how many of the 7.4 million “missing” patients now seek treatment, and how many have received private treatment, recovered, died or learned to live with their conditions in the interim.“Sir Simon Stevens, the outgoing NHS England chief executive, has suggested that with the right resources the backlog could be cleared over the next two-and-a-half to three years,” said the IFS report. “Our analysis shows that achieving this would require the NHS to find effective ways to boost its capacity. If that cannot be done, clearing the backlog will take even longer.”The report analysed four scenarios of varying seriousness for the waiting list.Under the worst case analysed, some 80 per cent of the missing patients would return over the next year, while the NHS would operate at just 90 per cent of pre-pandemic capacity this year, returning to 100 per cent from 2023. The IFS calculated that this would result in waiting lists soaring to 14 million by the autumn of 2022 and continuing to climb in the following years.If just 65 per cent of the missing patients present for treatment, and the NHS operates in future at 95 per cent of pre-pandemic capacity, waiting lists would still rise to an enormous 11 million within a year and then continue to climb “worryingly” upwards to more than 15 million by the end of 2025, the report warned.Only if pre-pandemic capacity is outstripped does the IFS modelling suggest the waiting list can be returned to a downward trajectory.If the NHS can return to its full 2019 capacity this year and next, and add an additional 5 per cent from 2023 onwards, then even with 75 per cent of the missing patients coming forward for treatment, waiting lists would rise temporarily before falling back to 8.6 million – almost double its pre-pandemic level – by 2025.This would require treating an additional 800,000 patients a year at an annual cost of at least £1bn, said the IFS.In the best-case scenario, the NHS would increase capacity by 5 per cent above 2019 levels this year and next, and 10 per cent from 2023 onwards, treating an extra 1.6 million patients a year at a potential annual cost of at least £2bn. The IFS calculated that this model would see waiting lists peak at more than 9 million in 2022 before returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2025.IFS research economist Max Warner, an author of the study, said: “More than four million people were on an NHS waiting list even before the pandemic. Covid-19 has only made matters worse, as millions of people have missed out on treatment and millions more haven’t even been referred onto the waiting list to begin with.“There is a real risk that if the NHS cannot find effective ways to boost its capacity – a challenge at the best of times, let alone after a major pandemic – then much longer waiting lists will be with us for years to come.” The study found that there has been a particularly sharp increase in the number of people waiting for longer than a year. On the eve of the pandemic in February 2020, only around 1,600 people had been on the list for a year or longer. By May 2021, this had increased to almost 340,000 – down from the March 2021 figure of 436,000, but still a 200-fold increase on pre-pandemic levels. More

As almost 800,000 pupils prepare to receive exam results in the coming week, Labour has renewed its call for Boris Johnson to sack education secretary Gavin Williamson.Writing in The Independent, shadow education secretary Kate Green accused Mr Williamson of “letting down students time and time again” in a year of “chaos and disruption” which saw exams cancelled in January and schools, pupils and parents left waiting three months to know how grades would be awarded.Meanwhile, the National Union of Students issued an appeal for young people to be judged on their achievements during the two years of sixth-form dominated by the coronavirus pandemic, and not judged harshly in comparison with those who took exams in earlier years.With 782,000 pupils receiving their A-level, GCSE and BTEC results this week, there are expectations that there will be record-breaking numbers of top-scoring results on a system based on teacher assessments and tests in schools.Universities are bracing for unprecedented numbers of A-level students reaching their required grades on Tuesday to qualify for entry into undergraduate courses, with last year’s record-high intake expected to be followed by an even larger number of freshers in 2021.Analysis by The Times has revealed that the number of courses in clearing among Russell Group universities has fallen by one third, from 4,500 last year to only 3,000 this year.Former universities minister Lord Willetts said top universities are “less likely” to offer a place to A-Level students who have underperformed by a grade – predicting “less flexibility in the system” this summer.Mr Williamson this week announced an increase to 9,000 in the cap on places on medicine and dentistry courses in England, following a 20 per cent boost in numbers applying. And Universities UK (UUK) said it expects other courses to also see an increase in the number of applications.“Students have worked incredibly hard under the most challenging circumstances to reach their goal of going to university, and admissions teams up and down the country will be working their socks off to make sure students find a course which is right for them,” said a UUK spokesperson.“The majority of courses are not subject to a government cap, and therefore universities will be as flexible as possible to accommodate all offer holders that receive the required grades. Universities were successful in supporting applicants during last year’s results period and will build on that experience this year.”Amid widespread speculation that private school pupils will benefit from pushy parents or teachers lobbying for higher grades, the spokesperson insisted that universities’ commitment to “widening access to higher education to those from disadvantaged or underrepresented backgrounds” remains as strong as ever this year.And he rejected suggestions that 2021 A-level results would be regarded as less reliable than those from pre-pandemic years. “Teachers and exam regulators have done a good job in difficult circumstances,” said the UUK spokesperson.NUS vice president for further education, Salsabil Elmegri, said that students should not be punished for the shortcomings of the government’s response to the pandemic by having their achievements doubted.“Since the disaster that unfolded last summer, the government has had a whole year to put a workable solution in place that inspires trust and confidence across the sector, it has failed to do so and now it seems students are being punished,” said Ms Elmegri.“A-Level students and those across further education have had an incredibly tumultuous year, they do not deserve to have their achievements called into question and to face further assessment out of the blue which is sure to have a detrimental impact on their mental health.”Ms Green said students had been let down by “last-minute decision making and uncertainty” causing additional stress for pupils and teachers.“Young people have battled through two years of unprecedented uncertainty and disruption to their learning. But they have been let down time and again by a Conservative government which is showing no ambition for their futures.”She added: “The education secretary’s calamitous record should be a source of shame for this government. This disregard for young people, their future life chances and our country’s future prosperity is a damning indictment of the Conservatives’ failed pandemic response which could scar our country for decades.“But the responsibility for these failings is not Gavin Williamson’s alone. The blame must lie firmly at the feet of the prime minister. Boris Johnson has to explain why Gavin Williamson still has a job despite this catalogue of chaos, and why he has not lifted a finger to deliver the opportunities, investment and support young people need.” More

Nicola Sturgeon is allowing “big corporations to profit from dirty energy”, campaigners have claimed as they confronted Scotland’s first minister over her failure to oppose the Cambo North Sea oilfield.Oil giant Shell and private equity-backed Siccar Point Energy are expected to receive final approval to go into production at the Cambo field shortly before the United Nations Cop26 conference in Glasgow, where almost 200 countries will be asked to sign up to measures to limit global warming to 1.5C.If given the go-ahead, the site near Shetland could yield as many as 255 million barrels of oil over its lifetime, according to environmental campaigners.And they estimate that the 132 million tonnes of CO2 emissions that could be produced would require an area of land some 1.5 times the size of Scotland to counteract them.Ms Sturgeon was cornered by protesters from the Green New Deal Rising and Stop Cambo campaign at the Govanhill Carnival in her Glasgow Southside constituency on Saturday.When asked if she would oppose the oil field, Ms Sturgeon said: “Look, I’m not going to stand here – it’s not an issue for the Scottish government. “We are thinking about all of these things, we are trying to come to the right decision. There’s no doubt we should be moving away.“So there are hard questions to ask about whether things like that are commensurate and I totally get that. There are tough things for all of us to address and make decisions on.”One of the campaigners told the first minister she was disappointed that she would not commit to opposing the oilfield.Ms Sturgeon responded: “You can have a politician that says to you what you want to hear, because you are standing here, or you can have a politician that says I do hear what you say, and I’ve got a lot of sympathy with it but there’s issues as first minister I’ve got to make sure that I properly consider.“And that’s what I’m choosing to do.”The Green New Deal Rising group, a movement of young people fighting to stop the climate crisis, later tweeted: “Big corporations profit from dirty energy and politicians like Nicola Sturgeon let them get away with it. We’re here to put a stop to that.”Speaking after the incident, campaigner Lauren MacDonald, 20, who challenged Ms Sturgeon, said: “We are hosting Cop26 in my home city this year, yet Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson both have taken nowhere near enough action to meet the commitments already set.“The Scottish government can’t call itself a climate leader without opposing the Cambo oil field. “How can we trust our governments to tackle the climate crisis when time and time again they refuse to take meaningful action to mitigate its effects?”She said she was “genuinely terrified” for her future. “It makes me so frustrated that when I confront the leader of my country, she refuses to commit to taking action to safeguard the lives of her citizens,” Ms MacDonald added.“If we have any hope of mitigating the climate crisis and seeing a fairer society in Scotland, we need a just transition out of oil and gas immediately. We need a green new deal now that delivers good green jobs.” More

Thousands of EU citizens living in Britain face losing benefits next month if they have not applied for settled status to stay in the UK.Campaigners warn the government decision to cut off European nationals – many of whom remain unaware of the need to apply for settled status after Brexit – could push the vulnerable into destitution.The Independent understands that around 70,000 European citizens in receipt of benefits had not yet applied to the settlement scheme shortly before the deadline at the end of June.An internal Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) letter, seen by The Independent, reveals that final warning letters will be sent out in September to European benefit claimants who have not yet applied to the EU settlement scheme (EUSS).The group will then be given one month to sign up late to the scheme before their benefit payments are cut.Despite the government’s decision to allow late applications to the scheme to be considered, campaigners fear many European citizens – including vulnerable people who struggle with paperwork and IT literacy – will have remained out of reach since the deadline passed.The 3million group, which advocates for the rights of EU citizens in the UK, has written to work and pensions secretary Thérèse Coffey urging the cabinet minister to rethink the plan to cut off benefits in the autumn.“We are very concerned that there will be many EEA or Swiss nationals who will have their benefits entitlement terminated and be pushed into destitution,” the group’s head of policy Luke Piper told the minister.Mr Piper said: “Based on the correspondence we have seen, this will be an inevitable consequence of your policy, and will impact on people who are in very vulnerable circumstances.“We understand that the estimates of [European] nationals who had not applied was in excess of 100,000 and that number was reduced to approximately 70,000 during June 2021,” he added.“We ask that you urgently revisit this policy and not terminate DWP benefits. We ask that you ensure that every recipient who has not applied is individually identified and supported to apply to the EUSS.”Dr Dora-Olivia Vicol, chief executive at the Work Rights Centre, which supports EU migrant workers, said she was “very worried” by the DWP push to end payments.She warned that thousands of people were likely to be affected by the benefits cut-off in spite of government efforts to warn them. “Mail will remain unopened because there are people who get anxious whenever they get a letter from the government,” she said.“Others are not able to understand the administrative language and rely upon the help of family, friends or advisers to interpret it, or struggle with IT literacy. It’s unrealistic to expect that everyone who should have applied has done it already.”The EU settlement scheme opened in March 2019 and required all EU and EEA nationals and their family members living in Britain to apply by 30 June 2021 in order to maintain their rights in the UK after Brexit.Ms Vicol claimed the benefits cut-off had arisen as a result of the Home Office’s “insistence” on forcing all European citizens in Britain to apply to the scheme in order to maintain their rights.She said the government had rejected campaigners’ pleas to “learn from Windrush and opt for a more permissive declaratory system”.The DWP would not say many how many letters it expects to send out to European benefit claimants in September. The Times reported in late June that 70,000 European citizens on benefits had not yet applied for settled status, after the DWP initially identified a cohort of 130,000.The internal letter seen by The Independent states that benefits – including universal credit and housing benefit – will be “suspended” if those yet to sign up to the scheme fail to make an application within one month of their September letter.It also states that once their benefits are suspended, the claimant will then have a further month to make an application to the settlement scheme.It the claimant does not apply within this month then all benefits claims will be “terminated … as they will be treated as a Person Subject to Immigration Control”.A government spokesperson said the letters would make “very clear” the support available to people to make a late application, and that safeguards were in place to help protect against removal of benefits for potentially vulnerable individuals who may ultimately be eligible for status.“Every day thousands of people are being given status through the hugely successful EU settlement scheme and the government continues to use every possible channel to encourage those who are eligible to apply and secure the status they are entitled to,” they added.It comes as immigration lawyers are set to launch legal action challenging the Home Office’s decision to block some family members of European citizens from joining their relatives living in the UK.Letters by the Home Office, seen by The Independent, informed a group of ten European nationals that their relatives – including siblings and cousins – will not get a “family permit” to join them in Britain because a deadline for the process had now passed.The Home Office announced on Friday that family members who apply late for a family permit under the settlement scheme will have their rights “temporarily protected” for three months until any appeal is decided.But campaigners remain angry that many are having applications for family permits turned down – despite the Withdrawal Agreement stating that extended family members who are “dependents or members of the household” of EU citizens will have a right to reside in Britain.Mr Piper, of the3million group, said there could be “several thousand” people left in “this strange limbo” – and said he expected their lawyers to take legal action against the government.The government revealed shortly after the June deadline that just over six million applications to the settlement scheme had been received, with 5.4 million applications approved – leaving a backlog of around 600,000 cases for the Home Office. More

Boris Johnson’s government has been warned of a second consecutive year of “chaos” over exam results in England, as experts warned of the desperate scramble ahead for university places.Students awaiting A-level results next week face a highly-competitive battle to win spots at the country’s top universities, with some institutions expecting more grade inflation after last year’s exams fiasco.Analysis carried out by The Times has revealed that the number of courses in clearing among Russell Group universities has fallen by one third, from 4,500 last year to only 3,000 this year.Former universities minister Lord Willetts said top universities are “less likely” to offer a place to A level students who have underperformed by a grade – predicting “less flexibility in the system” this summer.Lord Willets told Times Radio on Saturday: “I think there is a specific pressure point for applicants who don’t get their predicted grades. I think universities, especially the selective ones, are less likely this year to offer you a place if frustratingly you’ve underperformed, you’re one grade down or something.”He added: “I think there’s going to be less of that flexibility in the system. Of course, there will be other places at other universities and teaching can be of high quality across the system.”The latest UCAS data shows a record 311,000 18-year-olds had applied for university places before the end of June deadline – a 10 per cent increase on last year.Russell Group universities are believed to have become more cautious about awarding places this year, after more applicants than expected gained entry results in 2020 following significant “grade inflation”.Even higher results are predicted for this year, after exams were replaced by a combination of teacher-assessed grades and course work.Education secretary Gavin Williamson faced calls to quit and students protested over last year’s A-level results – after pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds were found to have suffered more the biggest reduction in grades from an “algorithm” system.Labour MP Kate Green, shadow education secretary, responded to news of a squeeze on clearing places by urging the government to come up with a contingency plan for students who do not get the grades they are expecting.“Young people getting their results have worked incredibly hard in unprecedented circumstances but have been repeatedly let down by the Conservatives’ chaotic decision making and systematic refusal to learn lessons from their mistakes,” said the Labour MP.“The Conservatives dismissed our calls for a contingency plan on exams, resulting in a second year of chaos that is putting students’ university places and future opportunities at risk.”Calling on the prime minister to explain what action will be taken to avoid the exam result scandal of 2020, Ms Green added: “A repeat of last year’s fiasco cannot, and will not, be tolerated.”Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, said some of last year’s university applicants have acceptances agreed for this year – further squeezing the number of places available.“Last year’s bulge entry cohort is still working its way through the system,” he said. “There are just more 18-year-olds this year.”Lord Willis said the competition for places at selective universities may become so fierce that institutions could traduce their own entrance exams.“I would be surprised if we went down that route,” he said. “I mean, there is an irony. Britain doesn’t have a conventional school leaving exam at the age of 18, unlike many other advanced countries.“What we have instead is A-Levels which were designed by universities. So it will be as if universities themselves started trying to find some alternative route.” More

The government has begun talks with the food industry over moves to ban foie gras in the UK. MPs told the government last month they were losing patience over its lack of action on outlawing imports of the controversial delicacy made from the fattened livers of geese and ducks that have been repeatedly force-fed.The cross-party group of MPs told environment secretary George Eustice and animal welfare minister Lord Goldsmith they were unhappy at not receiving a response after lobbying them earlier this year, warning: “The UK public is growing impatient, as are we.”The government has repeatedly hinted it will ban imports of foie gras, which is considered so cruel that it is illegal to produce in the UK, although an estimated 200 tonnes is imported from mainland Europe each year.In its animal-welfare action plan published in May, the government pledged to gather evidence to shape a decision on imports. It had long said that banning imports was impossible while Britain was in the EU.But now sources have confirmed to The Independent that the government is holding talks with interested parties, including leaders in the UK food industry and animal welfare organisations.In an open letter to the ministers, the MPs, including Conservative backbencher Henry Smith, called for an urgent meeting.“Following our letter dated 26th March 2021, we continue to await receipt of a) a roadmap and b) a proposed timeline confirming when a ban on the importation of foie gras produced by force-feeding will be implemented (covering all sales of foie gras in the UK),” the letter said.It noted that in June the European Parliament called on the European Commission to draw up plans to prohibit the “cruel and unnecessary” force-feeding of ducks and geese.The letter, seen by The Independent, added: “We call on the UK to make the most of this unique opportunity to lead the way; we urge you to put in place this landmark legislation for animals and, in turn, encourage the rest of the world to follow suit.The signatories complained they had received little information on the government’s next steps or when a ban was likely to be written into law.For the new Animal Welfare (Sentience) Bill to hold “significant meaning and weight in reality”, the letter warned, “the UK cannot continue to support torturous practices such as force-feeding ducks and geese to produce foie gras – practices known to induce undeniable anguish and pain for the sentient animals involved.“There is, and always has been, strong public momentum behind this issue, with over 200,000 people backing a petition – led by animal-protection organisation Animal Equality UK – to abolish this cruel product from our shores.”As well as Mr Smith, Labour’s Hilary Benn, the Green Party’s Caroline Lucas, SNP MP Lisa Cameron, Liberal Democrat Wera Hobhouse, Plaid Cymru’s Ben Lake and the DUP’s Jim Shannon all signed.Ms Lucas said: “We have no right to call ourselves a nation of animal lovers until foie gras is banned, once and for all.”The Animal Equality organisation, which has had several meetings with government officials to discuss issues including their call for a ban, says it is optimistic Mr Eustice and Lord Goldsmith will agree to discuss the next step.Executive director Abigail Penny said: “The science is clear: force-feeding is without a doubt absolutely agonising for the animals involved. “I invite cabinet ministers and government officials to a roundtable discussion with Animal Equality and the signatories of our open letter.”Lord Goldsmith, who is thought to support a ban, said: “There is no doubt that the production of foie gras from ducks or geese using force-feeding raises very serious welfare issues. The practice is rightly banned in the UK as it is incompatible with our own welfare standards.“As an independent nation, we now have the opportunity to go further, and through our action plan for animal welfare we have committed to looking into a ban on the import or sale of foie gras – and are building an evidence base to inform that decision.” More