Markus Andrews

The government should not rule out a fourth coronavirus lockdown in winter, a Public Health England adviser has said, amid warnings of a possible rise in Covid-19 cases towards the end of the year.What have the scientists said?Dr Susan Hopkins, the strategic response director for Covid-19 at Public Health England (PHE), warned there may need to be further lockdowns over winter.On Sunday, she told the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show: “We may have to do further lockdowns this winter, I can’t predict the future, it really depends on whether the hospitals start to become overwhelmed at some point.”But I think we will have alternative ways to manage this, through vaccination, through anti-virals, through drugs, through testing that we didn’t have last winter.”All of those things allow us different approaches rather than restrictions on livelihoods that will move us forward into the next phase of learning to live with this as an endemic that happens as part of the respiratory viruses.”She said there were “rises and falls” in cases across the country, with the virus having “definitely reserved” in Bolton and “stabilised” in Blackburn with Darwen, but continuing to “rise quite fast” in London and the northeast.Similarly, Professor Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which advises the government, has also warned that the emergence of new respiratory viruses means a “pretty miserable winter” for the UK with further lockdowns a possibility.On Sunday, Professor Semple told Times Radio: “I suspect we’ll have a pretty miserable winter because the other respiratory viruses are going to come back and bite us quite hard. But after that, I think we’ll be seeing business as normal next year.”There’s a sting in the tail after every pandemic, because social distancing will have reduced exposure, particularly of pregnant women and their newborn babies, they will have not been exposed to the usual endemic respiratory viruses.”The protection that a pregnant woman would give to their unborn child has not occurred.”So we are going to see a rise in a disease called bronchiolitis, and a rise in community acquired pneumonia in children and in the frail elderly, to the other respiratory viruses for which we don’t have vaccines.”So that’s why we’re predicting a rough July, August and then a rough winter period.”Professor Semple called it the “fourth wave winter” but added it would be much milder than the previous ones.What have the politicians said?When he announced a delay to the final stage of lifting England’s lockdown last week, Boris Johnson told the public he was confident the restrictions will not need to continue beyond 19 July.“We will monitor the position every day and if after two weeks we have concluded that the risk has diminished then we reserve the possibility of proceeding to Step 4 and full opening sooner,” the prime minister said.“As things stand – and on the basis of the evidence I can see right now – I am confident we will not need any more than four weeks and we won’t need to go beyond 19 July”.Kwasi Kwarteng has suggested it is “unlikely”the remaining Covid restrictions will be lifted before 19 July, stressing the government would “always err on the side of caution”.Pressed on the date, the business secretary, Mr Kwarteng, who said he hoped for “some type of normality” on 19 July, told Sky News: “I think between you and me, I would always err on the side of caution and I would look to 19 July.“It could be before, but I think that’s unlikely. Well, I don’t know, that’s just my guess. Generally we’ve stuck to the dates that we’ve said.“I remember in the previous dates there was a lot of push to try to get the dates 12 April earlier, the 17 May earlier. That didn’t happen.”Wales’ first minister, Mark Drakeford, has said another lockdown in the country is highly unlikely but not inconceivable because of the potential threat posed by coronavirus variants.The Welsh Labour leader warned the risk of mutations developing which vaccinations are less effective against means “it simply doesn’t make sense” to rule out reimposing the highest level of restrictions.Mr Drakeford has delayed the further easing of Wales’s Covid restrictions for four weeks in response to a spike in cases of the variant to see if they lead to increased pressure on the NHS. More

Boris Johnson has failed to deny that the government is considering dropping the pensions triple-lock to help pay for the recovery from Covid.The prime minister was speaking after reports that chancellor Rishi Sunak is considering suspending the measure – under which state pensions rise in line with  the highest of prices, average wages or 2.5 per cent – for a year in order to avoid a bumper hike as pay soars in the wake of the pandemic.And reports today suggested the Treasury are considering cutting the pensions lifetime allowance or tax reliefs or introducing new taxation on employer contributions to bring down the ever-mounting bill.Asked today whether he was planning to ditch the triple lock, Mr Johnson said: “I read all sorts of stuff at the moment which I don’t recognise at all about the government’s plan.”Speaking during a visit to a science facility in Hertfordshire, the prime minister added: “What we’re doing as the single most important thing for the economy, and indeed paying for the recovery, is to ensure that we continue cautiously but irreversibly to unlock and get our economy moving again.“That is the priority of the government.”The Treasury is understood to be be concerned that distortions to wage data as workers leave furlough could trigger a rise of as much as 8 per cent in pensions under the triple-lock rules, costing as much as £4bn.Anomalies in wages data pushed the headline growth rate of average UK earnings up to 5.6 per cent in April, with economists forecasting that the rate will rise to about 8 per cent by July, which is the month when the pensions rise is calculated against.Mr Johnson’s official spokesperson said there had been no change in the system, telling reporters: “We are committed to the triple lock. We made a commitment at the general election and we plan to stick to that commitment.”But the spokesperson added: “It is important to say that the final figures are still unclear and the uprating takes place in the annual review which takes pace later this year.“There is some uncertainty about the trajectory of average earnings and whether there will be the spike that’s been forecast. “Our focus is on ensuring fairness to both pensioners and taxpayers.” More

Boris Johnson has warned of a “rough winter” with pressures on the NHS “for all sorts of reasons”, amid warnings from scientific advisers the UK could see another surge of Covid.The prime minister, however, insisted “it’s looking good” for the government’s plan to end all remaining legal restrictions in England on 19 July — something Mr Johnson has referred to as the “terminus point”.Last week chief medical officer professor Chris Whitty urged the health service to brace itself for a difficult winter, saying it was his expectation “we will get a further winter surge” of coronavirus, or a spike in cases of flu virus.“Either we will have a very significant Covid surge, people will minimise their contacts and we will have less respiratory viruses, or people will be back to a more normal life, there will be some Covid but on top of that we will go back to having a flu surge, and RSV surge in children, and so on,” he said last week.Pressed on the possibility of another surge of the virus in the winter months and whether he would rule out future lockdowns, Mr Johnson told reporters on Monday: “You can never exclude that there will be some new disease, some new horror that was simply haven’t budgeted for, or accounted for”.“But looking at where we are, looking at the efficacy of the vaccines against all variants that we currently see — so Alpha, Delta, the lot of them, Kappa — I think it’s looking good for July 19 to be that terminus point”.“I think what the scientists are saying is that things like flu will come back this winter, we may have a rough winter for all sorts of reasons, and obviously there are big pressures on the NHS,” he added.“All the more reason to reduce the number of Covid cases now, give the NHS the breathing space it needs to get on with dealing with all those other pressures, and we are certainly going to be putting in the investment to make sure that they can”.The prime minister also played down suggestions that restrictions on overseas travel could be lifted later this summer as more people receive a second dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, stressing it would be a “difficult year” for travel.On a visit to a laboratory in Hertfordshire, he said: “I want to stress that this is going to be – whatever happens – a difficult year for travel.“There will be hassle, there will be delays, I am afraid, because the priority has got to be to keep the country safe and stop the virus coming back in.”Speaking earlier, the cabinet minister Kwasi Kwarteng also insisted the government would always “err on the side of caution” and played down any prospect of the government easing restrictions ahead of 19 July.When Mr Johnson announced last week that the final stage of lifting England’s Covid measures would be delayed due to a surge in the Delta variant first detected in India, he also told the public there would be a review after two weeks, on 5 July.Pressed on the date, the business secretary, who said he hoped for “some type of normality” on 19 July, told Sky News: “I think between you and me, I would always err on the side of caution and I would look to 19 July.“It could be before, but I think that’s unlikely. Well, I don’t know, that’s just my guess. Generally we’ve stuck to the dates that we’ve said.“I remember in the previous dates there was a lot of push to try to get the dates 12 April earlier, the 17 May earlier. That didn’t happen.” More

Matt Hancock has claimed Boris Johnson branded him “totally f***ing hopeless” in his handling of the Covid crisis because he was “stressed” at the time.The health secretary denied the revelation – in a Dominic Cummings blog – was embarrassing, but declined to say if the pair had spoken about the text the prime minister sent.In an extraordinary broadside last week, the former No 10 aide also released messages revealing Mr Johnson considered sacking Mr Hancock and replacing him with Michael Gove.The prime minister turned on his health secretary early in the pandemic last year, when Mr Cummings said his testing plans were in chaos and amid anger over the mounting death toll in care homes.But Mr Hancock dismissed the attack as “ancient history”, telling the BBC: “At times of stress people say all sorts of things in private. What matters is how well you work together.“And you’re referring to comments apparently from the prime minister. I work with the prime minister every single day. We work very strongly together, firstly to protect life, and secondly to get the country out of this.”Asked if it was embarrassing to have been called f***ing hopeless by his boss, Mr Hancock said: “No, it isn’t really because of all the things we’ve delivered together.We’re here talking about the success of the vaccine programme. That is something that I’ve very much led from the department, working with the prime minister.“He’s been a massive supporter of it throughout. And of course we’ve had obstacles, and we’ve had people that we’ve had to deal with on the way.”In the interview, Mr Hancock also confirmed he wants regular testing to replace self-isolation for people who have been in contact with someone testing positive “as soon as it’s reasonable to do so”.However, the testing would not replace self-isolation for people who have tested positive themselves.Plans for an autumn vaccine booster programme would be set out in the next few weeks, as health leaders urge ministers to begin making preparations, Mr Hancock said.And he rejected suggestions that it would take at least five years to deal with the backlog for NHS operations, saying: “I think we can sort it faster than that.”The health secretary also insisted the government will publish a plan to reform social care before the end of the year – amid suggestions a meeting planned for tomorrow has been shelved.In his revelations, Mr Cummings released a WhatsApp message revealing Mr Johnson called Mr Hancock “totally f***ing hopeless” for failing to meet a pledge of 10,000 daily tests by the end of March.The prime minister also apparently told his aide that PPE procurement was a disaster, adding: “I can’t think of anything except taking Hancock off and putting Gove on.” More

Matt Hancock has said he wants self-isolation rules to be eventually scrapped and replaced with daily tests for individuals who have received two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine.The change in guidance — if signed off by Boris Johnson — would mean those who have received both jabs may soon be spared 10 days of self-isolation if they come into contact with someone infected with the virus.According to reports over the weekend, the health secretary is pushing to replace the mandatory self-isolation in favour of daily lateral flow tests, but a government decision is not expected until later in the summer.It comes after Public Health England (PHE) launched a trial with 40,000 people who had been in contact with someone who had tested positive for Covid-19, “to gather evidence on safe alternatives to self-isolation”.It is understood the study — launched in May — is still ongoing and its findings are expected to contribute to ministers’ decisions on whether the approach is suitable to be rolled out nationally.Under current rules, anyone who has been contacted by Test and Trace after coming into contact with a positive case must self-isolate at home for a 10 day period, regardless of whether they are showing symptoms of the virus.Speaking on BBC Breakfast, Mr Hancock said on Monday: “This is something that I’m working on, but I’m taking clinical advice as you can imagine, because we want to make sure people are safe and that the systems we have in place are cautious and manage to contain this virus.“So we are piloting that approach that if you’ve had two jabs, instead of having to isolate, if you’re a contact, then you’d have a testing regime.“We are piloting that now to check that will be effective and it is something we are working on — we are not ready to be able to take that step yet, but it’s something that I want to see and we will introduce subject to clinical advice, as soon as it’s reasonable to do so”.Last week a separate study by PHE found that one dose of a Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine Covid-19 vaccine could reduce the risk of hospitalisation by three quarters, with the effectiveness increasing to more than 92 per cent after two doses.Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr programme, cabinet minister Robert Buckland said the ministers had not ruled out relaxing restrictions, including on overseas travel, for those who have received both doses of a Covid vaccine.“I think experts like [PHE’s] Susan Hopkins are absolutely right to remind us the evidence is still developing on double vaccines,” he said. “It looks great, it looks really encouraging, we’re trying to be as flexible as we can.And at the weekend, Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh, told Times Radio the United States’ health protection agency the Centre for Disease Control had “changed their guidance a while ago to say that people who had had both doses of the vaccine and about 10-14 days after the second dose didn’t have to self-isolate, so I think we are moving in that direction”.“As we’ve heard repeatedly from Chris Whitty and others, this virus isn’t going to disappear.“We’re going to have to live alongside it, means we are going to have infections in future, so being a contact of someone infected will always be a possibility,” Prof Bauld added. More

Cabinet minister Kwasi Kwarteng has suggested it is “unlikely” the remaining Covid restrictions will be lifted before 19 July, stressing the government would “always err on the side of caution”.Announcing a delay to the final stage of lifting England’s Covid measures last week due to a surge in cases linked to the Delta variant, Boris Johnson also told the public there would be a review after two weeks.Pressed on the date, the business secretary, who said he hoped for “some type of normality” on 19 July, told Sky News: “I think between you and me, I would always err on the side of caution and I would look to 19 July.“It could be before, but I think that’s unlikely. Well, I don’t know, that’s just my guess. Generally we’ve stuck to the dates that we’ve said.“I remember in the previous dates there was a lot of push to try to get the dates 12 April earlier, the 17 May earlier. That didn’t happen.”Mr Kwarteng’s comments come on 21 June — the day the remaining restrictions were due to be lifted under the government’s original roadmap, but was forced to postpone last week due to surging cases of the Delta variant first detected in India.“We will monitor the position every day and if after 2 weeks we have concluded that the risk has diminished then we reserve the possibility of proceeding to Step 4 and full opening sooner,” Mr Johnson said.“As things stand – and on the basis of the evidence I can see right now – I am confident we will not need any more than 4 weeks and we won’t need to go beyond 19 July”.Speaking on Sunday, Dr Susan Hopkins, a senior official at Public Health England, said there were “rises and falls” in Covid-19 cases across the country, with the virus having “definitely reversed” in Bolton and “stabilised” in Blackburn with Darwen but continuing to “rise quite fast” in London and the northeast.The scientist added it was unlikely the remaining social distancing measures would be lifted in England ahead of 19 July, adding: “My strong opinion is the longer we just take our time and get through this period to get the maximum amount of people vaccinated is a positive thing for this summer and to get us through this winter.“So my view would be to keep going, that we can live at this level and then that would mean hopefully when we come out of this level of restrictions, which are much easier to live with I think for many of us, then we would be able to get on and get back to normal and stay back to normal for a very prolonged period.” More

A cross-party group of MPs have called on the government to upgrade e-passport gates at airports to read Covid tests in time for the return of mass foreign travel.The all-party parliamentary group (APPG) on coronavirus said the measure will help reduce queueing and crowding at airport arrival halls.In a report released on Sunday night the MPs also say Covid “green passes” for international travel should include test results to reduce the need for paper documentation. And they say the government must consider measures to reduce the cost of tests, perhaps introducing a VAT exemption or price caps. “The rapid growth of the Delta variant has shown how we must be vigilant against the risks posed by international travel,” said Caroline Lucas, the group’s vice-chair.”Yet despite repeated warnings, ministers are still failing to address overcrowding at airports or fake test certificates that are allowing Covid cases to slip through the cracks. “Upgrading e-gates and digitising test results would reduce the risk of transmission in airports and ensure we are no longer relying solely on Border Force officials to spot fraudulent documents. The government must learn from its mistakes and ensure its border policy is watertight.” The need to manually check test results has led to many airports closing e-gates or requiring a second layer personnel, adding to waiting times. Travellers have reported long waits and overcrowding at some entry points to the country. The government has been criticised for allowing people arriving at UK airports from high-risk countries to mix with those from low-risk countries. Layla Moran, the APPG’s chair, said: “Any digital Covid green pass for international travel should include test results in addition to vaccination status to better defend against new variants. The government must not yet again allow international travel to jeopardise the hard-won progress we’ve made against the virus.“Once this is in place, the government should also consider measures to reduce the costs of tests such as a VAT exemption or a price cap, as has been done in other European countries. Until we vaccinate the world, testing will remain crucial to our efforts to detect new variants and keep the virus under control.”The government is currently reviewing arrangements for international travel, which remains banned to most countries for all but exceptional reasons.Responding to the APPG’s recommendation’s, a government spokesperson said: “Our international travel policy is guided by one overwhelming priority – public health – and traffic light allocations are based on a range of factors including genomic surveillance capability, transmission risk and Variants of Concerns. “We are committed to protecting the country against the risk of variants, and every essential check introduced – from testing to the Passenger Locator Form – is helping prevent new variants making it into the UK.“As set out by the Global Travel Taskforce, we continue to engage with international partners, to explore how we can open international travel safely.” More

Sir Patrick Vallance is to run a new science and technology office aimed at maximising the UK’s strengths in both sectors, Downing Street has announced.The Office for Science and Technology Strategy will be based in the Cabinet Office and tasked with driving Whitehall priorities in those areas.Sir Patrick is taking up the role of national technology adviser alongside his current position as the government’s chief scientific adviser.“The new Office for Science and Technology Strategy will put science and technology right at the heart of policy-making and strengthen the way we work across government,” Sir Patrick said in a statement.“I look forward to working with the National Science and Technology Council to help identify cutting-edge research and technologies that will deliver strategic advantage for the UK”.It forms part of a plan by No 10 to “reinforce the position of the UK as a science superpower”.A new National Science and Technology Council will also be established and chaired by Boris Johnson.The prime minister will instruct the council to provide strategic direction on the use of science and technology as tools to tackle society’s challenges and level up across the country.Downing Street says Mr Johnson is tasking the whole of government, working with the new council and office, to take the success of the UK’s approach to vaccines and apply it to other priorities.Officials say the first task of the Office for Science and Technology Strategy will be to review the technology bets the UK should back and prioritise for strategic advantage.The PM said: “From discovery to delivery, our vaccination programme has proven what the UK can achieve at scale and at speed.“With the right direction, pace and backing, we can breathe life into many more scientific and technological breakthroughs that transform the lives of people across the UK and the world.”He added: “That’s why I’m establishing a new ministerial council and office at the centre of government, so we can realise the limitless possibilities that research and technology has to offer and cement the UK’s place as a global science superpower.” More