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The government was warned in January last year that as many as 820,000 people could die in the UK as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, health secretary Matt Hancock has revealed.And he said that by early March, it was clear that the development of the outbreak was pointing towards that worst-case scenario coming true if no action was taken.The government’s decision to impose the first lockdown in March last year is widely understood to have been driven by an Imperial College London study that month which said as many as 500,000 could die if the virus was allowed to spread unhindered while the UK developed “herd immunity”.But giving evidence to an inquiry by the House of Commons health and science committees, Mr Hancock revealed that the higher figure – calculated by the Department of Health on the basis of infection and death rates in the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918, when 228,000 died in the UK – was already known to ministers on the government’s Cobra emergencies committee.“I asked for a reasonable worst-case scenario planning assumption, and I was given the planning assumption based on Spanish flu,” Mr Hancock told MPs.“It was signed off at Cobra on 31 January, and that was a planning assumption for 820,000 deaths, and I was determined that that would not happen on my watch.”Mr Hancock added: “In the middle of February the scientific advice confirmed that the reasonable worst-case scenario should be taken as read that this was equivalent to Spanish flu.“At the time at the end of January when that was first presented at Cobra, I – like everybody else – thought of Spanish flu as something you’ve read about in the history books. But as health secretary, you’re always worried about new pathogens.“Knowing that that was the reasonable worst case scenario, we planned for it.”Mr Hancock told MPs: “The week beginning 9 March, what happened is that the data started to follow the reasonable worst-case scenario. And by the end of that week, the updated modelling showed essentially that we were on the track of something close to that reasonable worst-case scenario.” More

China could have stopped the global coronaviruspandemic by closing its borders to any international travel immediately after the pathogen emerged, health secretary Matt Hancock has said.Mr Hancock told a parliamentary inquiry that change is needed at a global level to ensure that urgent action is taken at the borders as soon as novel diseases appear in future.And he said it was “absolutely vital” that Beijing is more transparent about future disease outbreaks, blaming Chinese secrecy for delaying the global response.“One of the things that hindered our early response was a lack of transparency from China, and that must be put right in terms of future preparedness for future pandemics,” Mr Hancock told a joint hearing of the House of Commons health and science committees.“It is absolutely vital for the world that China is more transparent about its health information as soon as it understands that there are problems in future.”Mr Hancock said that experience had proven the government right in its decision not to close the UK borders unilaterally last spring, which he said would have delayed the spread of Covid-19 by only a week.He said he had “clear clinical advice” that preventing International travel into and out of the UK would not protect the country unless all other countries did the same.And he pointed to Italy and the US which both developed serious outbreaks despite tough action at borders.Mr Hancock told MPs: “The position that we took was based not just on World Health Organisation’s advice but on their international health regulations, which stipulate that closing borders is not an appropriate response in a pandemic. That is the international regulation.“The clinical advice we received was that unilaterally taking action at the borders would only have a small effect, in terms of delaying the response, of about a week. And indeed, early in the pandemic this was proven by both the United States and Italy, who took direct action at the border and they still have the disease. “He added: “If everybody takes action on borders and restricts movement, then clearly, that can have a big impact and so we’ve strengthened our border policy throughout and now we have one of the strongest borders policies in the world.“My reflection on it at the time – and this is very important for the lessons learned – is that the only way the world could have stopped this virus getting out of China is if China itself had stopped people leaving China, because as soon as people were allowed to leave China to go to another place then – unless the whole world took action on borders, as they have now – it would only have delayed to a degree.“That was the clear, clinical advice, and it is one of the things that we absolutely must change at the global level, that part of the response to a dangerous pathogen needs to be health action at the border.”one of the things that hindered our early response was a lack of transparency from China, and that must be put right in terms of future preparedness for future pandemics, it is absolutely vital for the world that China is more transparent about its health information as soon as it understands that there are problems in future. More

Boris Johnson is welcoming leaders from around the world to the UK on Friday as he hosts the latest G7 summit.The gathering marks the first time the leaders have come together in almost two years due to the coronavirus pandemic, with Covid-19 expected to be one of the main items on the agenda.The UK prime minister has called on his fellow leaders to commit to vaccinating the world against Covid by the end of next year.The occasion also sees Joe Biden make his first overseas visit as US president since entering the Oval Office in January and he is expected to use the trip to try to build an alliance of democracies as a counterweight to China, with the White House saying they expect G7 leaders to announce a new initiative to provide financing for physical, digital and health infrastructure in the developing world as an alternative to the “belt and road” measures being offered by an increasingly dominant Beijing.The leaders are also expected to discuss issues including climate change and getting more children into education around the world.Here’s everything you need to know.What is the G7?The Group of Seven (G7) countries brings together some of the world’s richest democracies – the UK, US, Canada, Japan, France, Germany and Italy, along with representatives of the EU.Where is the summit happening?The UK holds the rotating presidency so has responsibility for hosting the summit, which will take place between Friday and Sunday at Carbis Bay in Cornwall, despite objections from the locals.Who else is attending?Alongside Mr Johnson and Mr Biden, Canada’s Justin Trudeau, Japan’s Yoshihide Suga, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Angela Merkel and Italy’s Mario Draghi will represent their respective countries.The EU will be represented by commission president Ursula von der Leyen and council president Charles Michel.Australia’s prime minister Scott Morrison, South Korean president Moon Jae-in and South African president Cyril Ramaphosa will all attend as guests, while India’s Narendra Modi will participate via Zoom due to the ongoing coronavirus crisis in his country, currently the world’s epicentre.What are the potential problems facing the prime minister?The summit is an opportunity for Mr Johnson to push his “Global Britain” agenda, which attempts to place the UK at the centre of the world stage and make a success of life after the EU.But the days leading up to the summit have seen a damaging row within his own party over the decision to cut international aid spending from 0.7 per cent of national income to 0.5 per cent, with Mr Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May warning that “the damage it does to our reputation means that it will be far harder for us as a country to argue for change” around the world.Will Brexit be an issue?Well, when is it not? The ongoing row between the UK and EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol is likely to loom large after violent clashes returned to the country earlier this year.Unusually for the G7, Brexit minister Lord Frost will be in attendance and the prime minister will hold talks with Ms Von der Leyen as well as his continental counterparts.US president Mr Biden also takes a keen interest in the issue of peace in Northern Ireland given his own Irish ancestry, with the White House warning against any British conduct that might imperil the Good Friday Agreement.Are protests expected?Extinction Rebellion activists have made clear they intend to stage a series of demonstrations calling on the G7 to do more to tackle climate change.The Kill the Bill movement will also protest against the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill, meaning security will be tight and some 5,000 extra officers drafted in from around the country to support Devon and Cornwall Police.In total, 6,500 officers and staff will be deployed in the operation, with 1,000 of them effectively living on a ship moored in Falmouth.Additional reporting by agencies More

Boris Johnson will be warned by Joe Biden not to put peace in Northern Ireland at risk, as the UK heads for a Brexit trade war with the EU over sausages.In their first face-to-face meeting, ahead of the G7 summit in Cornwall, the prime minister and the US president will launch a new bid to reopen US/UK air links as they seek to revive the close ties of wartime leaders Winston Churchill and Franklin Roosevelt with an updated Atlantic Charter.But the White House made clear that Mr Biden will voice his concern over London’s threat of a further breach of the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by Mr Johnson in 2019.European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic warned on Wednesday that “patience is wearing very, very thin” in Brussels, which is ready to slap tariffs and quotas on exports if the UK presses ahead with an extension of a “grace period” on chilled meat exports to get round EU hygiene rules.The row is the last thing Mr Biden wants on his first international trip as president, which he says he will use to demonstrate to China and Russia that “Europe and the United States are tight” in the wake of the divisions of the Trump years.US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the president’s trip – also taking in talks with Nato and the EU in Brussels and an encounter with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Geneva – will “advance the fundamental thrust of Joe Biden’s foreign policy to rally the world’s democracies to tackle the great challenges of our time”.And on the UK’s stand-off with Brussels over Northern Ireland, he said: “Whatever way they find to proceed must, at its core, fundamentally protect the gains of the Good Friday Agreement and not imperil that. And that is the message that President Biden will send when he is in Cornwall.”Adding to the pressure, it was reported last night that America’s most senior diplomat in Britain told Brexit minister Lord Frost that the UK government was “inflaming” tensions in Ireland and Europe with its opposition to Irish Sea border checks.With the marching season drawing near, a senior UK source close to negotiations effectively accused the EU of putting peace at risk by adopting a “purist” approach to applying the protocol.“It’s crucial not to give any room to violence or a sense that violence is any part of the solution to these problems,” said the source. “We need to show that normal politics can solve them and that’s why the purist approach is so risky.”Mr Johnson insisted he was “not worried” that the threat of trade war will overshadow the three-day gathering of major democracies – the US, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan and the EU – which he is hosting at the beach resort of Carbis Bay from Friday.But he was warned that his chairmanship of the gathering is being undermined by his decision to slash UK aid funding from the 0.7 per cent of national income enshrined in law by David Cameron to 0.5 per cent.The policy director of the International Rescue Committee, Daphne Jayasinghe, told The Independent: “Removal of the cut would be very much in line with the leadership that the UK government is promoting as part of its G7 presidency. The commitments that they are trying to mobilise among other G7 countries will really be undermined without that commitment to 0.7.” More

No breakthrough in UK-EU talks over Northern Ireland border checks, says Lord FrostJoe Biden is flying into the UK this evening ahead of the start of the G7 summit in Cornwall.The US president will touch down at RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk at around 8pm, before a meeting with Boris Johnson on Thursday.Prior to his arrival, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told the BBC that Mr Biden had “very deep” concerns about the effect of Brexit on Northern Ireland.Mr Sullivan said the president believes that the Northern Ireland protocol is “critical” to the protection of the Good Friday Agreement. He added that “whatever way they find to proceed must, at its core, fundamentally protect the gains of the Good Friday Agreement and not imperil that”.This comes as talks designed to end the dispute between the UK and the EU over Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal ended without a breakthrough on Wednesday. The EU has said its patience with the UK is “wearing thin” and has threatened to “suspend” parts of the Brexit trade agreement unless London complies with the Northern Ireland protocol.Speaking after failed Brexit talks on Wednesday, Maros Sefcovic, the EU commission vice-president, said Brussels could slap tariffs on UK exports and even “suspend cooperation in certain sectors”, pointing to deals on trade and services.Show latest update

1623250187Biden will announce a worldwide vaccine strategy at the G7 summit Joe Biden has said the US and Europe will present a united front at the upcoming G7 conference, and will announce a worldwide vaccine strategy.The US president is due to land at RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk at 8pm tonight, ahead of the start of the summit later this week. Rory Sullivan9 June 2021 15:491623249642Cummings’ allegations against Hancock will be ‘unsubstantiated’ without proofDominic Cummings has been told that his explosive claims against Matt Hancock will be “unsubstantiated” unless he provides evidence to back them up. Appearing before MPs last month, Boris Johnson’s former aide said the health secretary was dishonest and should have been fired on up to 20 occasions. Greg Clark and Jeremy Hunt, who chair the Health and Social Care and Science and Technology Committees, wrote to Mr Cummings after the deadline for submitting evidence elapsed on 4 June. They acknowledged that “providing documentary evidence of these conversations may not be possible”.“However, we are sure you understand that without further evidence we have to consider these allegations as unsubstantiated,” they added.Rory Sullivan9 June 2021 15:401623248442Government made policing harder with ‘ever-changing Covid rules’, police leaders say Ministers made policing “even harder” during the pandemic through unclear and ever-changing laws, the chair of the Police Federation has said.John Apter, whose organisation represents officers in England and Wales, said: “For the past 15 months we have been required to police in a way that none of us ever expected to when we joined the job.“We knew it was never going to be easy. But our job was made even harder by the ever changing rules and regulations.”He added that police officers were often sent out on patrol several hours after new regulations, which “were not always crystal clear”, were imposed. Rory Sullivan9 June 2021 15:201623247256Coalition of MPs and unions urge Alok Sharma to consider shorter working week at climate summitA coalition of MPs, including Labour’s John McDonnell, unions, and environmental campaigners are demanding the government ensure a shorter working week is discussed at the UN climate summit hosted by the UK.In a letter to Alok Sharma, who was appointed earlier this year by Boris Johnson as Cop 26 president, the signatories urge consideration of the “benefits that a shorter working week could offer in the race to limit the worst effects of climate change”.It comes as the government prepares to host the crucial climate conference in November, with world leaders being asked to come forward with “ambitious 2030 emissions reductions targets” that align with UK’s legally-binding target of net zero by the middle of the century.The letter highlights a recent report by Platform London— commissioned by the 4 Day Week campaign — which suggested last month the introduction of a four-day working week with no loss of pay would aid efforts in reducing Britain’s carbon footprint, with a possible reduction of 127 million tonnes per year by 2025.Read Ashley Cowburn’s exclusive here:Clea Skopeliti 9 June 2021 15:001623245548EU threatens to suspend parts of Brexit agreement The EU has said its patience with the UK is “wearing thin” and has threatened to “suspend” parts of the Brexit trade agreement unless London complies with the Northern Ireland protocol. Speaking after failed Brexit talks on Wednesday, Maroš Šefčovič, the EU commission vice-president, said Brussels could slap tariffs on UK exports and even “suspend cooperation in certain sectors”, pointing to deals on trade and services.Rob Merrick has this breaking story: Rory Sullivan9 June 2021 14:321623244540Brexit talks end with no breakthroughThe UK and the EU have finished their “frank and honest” Brexit discussion on Wednesday without striking an overall agreement. Kate Devlin has more details about what happened: More

Tensions between the UK and the EU over Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal have intensified after talks designed to end the conflict broke up without a breakthrough. Brexit minister Lord Frost said he had had a “frank and honest discussion” with European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic in London, but that there had been no overall agreement.Within hours however the EU had warned its patience was wearing thin and that the row could lead to “cross retaliation”, while UK sources hit back accusing the bloc of indulging in threats. Even before the negotiations began, the UK warned that time was running out to reach a deal on the controversial Northern Irish protocol, which local politicians have claimed is jeopardising peace in the province.For his part Mr Sefcovic had also said Brussels would act “firmly and resolutely” if the UK unilaterally decided to delay checks intended to ensure there was no return to a hard border with the Republic.The Brexit deal is deeply unpopular with many unionists in Northern Ireland, who believe it has created a border within the UK instead. The forthcoming end of a “grace period” for trade in products including mince from the rest of the UK into Northern Ireland has led to suggestions of “sausage wars” with the EU. After the meeting Mr Sefcovic told a press conference: “We are at a crossroads, (that) means that our patience really is wearing very, very thin, and therefore we have to assess all options we have at our disposal,“ he said. “I was talking about the legal action, I was talking about arbitration, and of course I’m talking about the cross-retaliation.A senior UK source close to negotiations said it was a “pity” the EU was “resorting to threats”.“No-one wants to get into a trade war or anything like that… People in Northern Ireland want solutions not threats,” he said.He declined to say how the UK would respond if the EU imposed tariffs. “We will have to see what happens if we get into that situation. “We don’t think it helps the situation to impose tariffs and don’t think it makes the problems in Northern Ireland easier to solve if we go down that route.”He confirmed that the option of unilaterally extending the grace period on movements of chilled food beyond its expiry date at the end of June remains “on the table” but insisted that no decision had been taken yet.The evidence from last year’s eleventh-hour trade deal was that “you don’t give up until the very last minute”.The source also warned that elements in Northern Ireland may be persuaded to adopt violent measures if they found themselves unable to make progress through normal political channels. “The purist approach has risks, because it makes it difficult to make progress through normal politics,” the source warned. “It is crucial to find ways of progressing politically and from the conversations I have had, everybody wants that.”Immediately after the three-and-a-half hours of talks ended, Lord Frost said that while there had been “no breakthroughs” both sides had agreed to continue discussions.”The problem we’ve got is the protocol is being implemented in a way which is causing disruption in Northern Ireland and we had some pretty frank and honest discussions about that situation today,” he said.”There weren’t any breakthroughs. There aren’t any breakdowns either and we’re going to carry on talking.”What we really now need to do is very urgently find some solutions which support the Belfast Good Friday Agreement, support the peace process in Northern Ireland and allow things to return to normal.”There was no substantive progress on a number of areas, including on sausages.But the UK government said it expected proposals from the EU soon on the supply of medicines to Northern Ireland, the movement of livestock between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and approval processes for high-risk plants intended for export to the EU.There was also what was described as “some progress” on a small number of issues including on assistance dogs entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain and EU access to the UK customs IT systems and databases.The senior source acknowledged that the UK was not accusing the EU of any breach of the protocol agreed by Mr Johnson.“We would say that the protocol is designed to give wide margins to respond to events and respect the balance of interests which can evolve,” said the source. “I don’t think I would say there is a breach, but what I would say is that they are requiring it to be operated in a way which is excessively purist and which risks undermining the overall purpose of the protocol, which is to support the Good Friday Agreement and the peace process.” More

The EU will “suspend” parts of the Brexit trade agreement unless the UK ends its refusal to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol, Boris Johnson has been warned.Speaking after talks failed to achieve a breakthrough, Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commission vice-president, warned that “patience is wearing very, very thin”.Brussels is ready to slap tariffs and quotas on UK exports, he said – and even to “suspend cooperation in certain sectors”, pointing to deals on trade and services.Mr Šefčovič laid bare his frustration after the UK failed to shift ground in the morning talks – David Frost, the Brexit minister, describing the result as “no breakthroughs and no breakdown”.Crucially, he failed to rule out the UK unilaterally delaying the ban on the export of chilled meats from Great Britain – due to come in at the end of this month – the so-called “sausage wars”.The Commission vice-president warned that, if further unilateral action is taken, the EU would react “swiftly, firmly and resolutely” to ensure the UK sticks to the Prootocol it agreed and signed.“The UK has to abide by its legal obligations and perform these controls,” Mr Šefčovič told a press conference in London.“Unfortunately, there are still numerous and fundamental gaps in the UK implementation of our agreement. These gaps need to be filled.”The legal action the EU has already started over the UK shelving earlier promised checks would end up in the European Court of Justice”, with the case likely “in early autumn”.In an interview after the meeting, Lord Frost hit out at Brussels, saying: “What the EU is insisting on is we should operate the protocol in an extremely purist way.“The reality is that it’s a very balanced document that’s designed to support the peace process and deal with the very sensitive politics in Northern Ireland.”But Mr Šefčovič insisted the EU was ready to compromise, over the supply of medicines, VAT on second-hand cars, livestock movements and steel tariffs and “many other examples”.“But we cannot undo the core of the Protocol,” he warned, threatening “cross-retaliation” measures that would undo the zero-tariff, zero-quota deal the UK secured at Christmas.Asked what part of the Brexit deal would be suspended, Mr Šefčovič pointed to “trade parts, services part” and “other measures”, but added: “I wouldn’t specify them right now.“We really do not have the menu. We didn’t come here to tell them we are going to do this and that precisely, we just told them there is such a possibility – let’s avoid this.”However, the vice-president said it was “not true” that the EU is discussing an emergency plan to restrict Ireland’s access to the single market to solve the crisis, as reported.Asked if he hoped for “an intervention from Joe Biden” when the US president arrives at the G7 summit, he pointed out that the administration was “following this very closely”.Ahead of a face-to-face meeting with Mr Johnson in Cornwall, Mr Biden’s national security adviser said his message would be the need to protect the peace process.“Whatever way they find to proceed must, at its core, fundamentally protect the gains of the Good Friday agreement and not imperil that. And that is the message that President Biden will send when he is in Cornwall,” Jake Sullivan said. More

Covid restrictions will be lifted in England this month if hospital admissions remain low in the coming days, Matt Hancock has suggested, but he admitted it was “a tricky call”.With the clock ticking towards the crucial decision next weekend, the health secretary pointed to encouraging data defying predictions that the surge of the Delta variant would swamp wards.The now-dominant strain is 40 per cent more transmissible than the Alpha (Kent) variant, Mr Hancock said – a figure the Sage advisory group had forecast would lead to more patients in hospital than previous Covid waves.But the numbers are “broadly flat”, he pointed out, in growing evidence that the successful vaccination programme has “severed” the link between infections and serious illness.“It is too early to make a final decision,” Mr Hancock said, about whether to complete the roadmap on 21 June, later calling it “a tricky call”.“We’ll keep watching the data for another week or so and, critically, watching that link on the number of cases to the number of people who end up in hospital,” he told Sky News.But he added: “It is absolutely true that the number of people ending up in hospital is broadly flat at the moment, whereas the number of cases is rising – showing that that link is not absolute as it once was.”Later, Mr Hancock again stressed that the number of people needing emergency care was the key test, saying: “What matters for opening is the data and the link to hospitalisations.”However, the health secretary did not rule out keeping rules for mask-wearing and working from home guidance, even if, for example, the “rule of six” for indoor gatherings is scrapped.The greatest pressure from businesses and Tory MPs is to end social distancing rules in venues – a decision shelved last month when the rate of infection began to grow again.Chris Hobson, the head of NHS Providers, has suggested the vaccine has “broken the chain” between infection and serious illness, with “very few” double-jabbed patients now ending up in hospital.The latest Covid dashboard says 869 patients were admitted in the past week – virtually unchanged on the previous week – but no figures have been published since 1 June.Professor Anne Johnson, president of the Academy of Medical Sciences, agreed it was “reassuring that we haven’t seen yet an uptick in the number of admissions and deaths”.But she warned it was too early to be certain – with three weeks, typically, between the easing of restrictions and hospitalisation – adding: “So we need to watch very carefully what the outcomes are.”The latest official figures revealed 5,341 new infections over the previous 24-hour period, but only four deaths recorded.Meanwhile, Labour backed the vaccination of children, despite some world health leaders calling for poor countries to be given jabs first.“I think you have to listen to what people are saying on the front line,” said Lisa Nandy, the shadow foreign secretary, pointing to support for the move in hotspot areas including Bolton and Blackburn.Ms Nandy suggested “rising infection rates” could force a delay to the roadmap – but rejected the worst-hit areas moving ahead more slowly than the rest of the country, because “local lockdowns simply didn’t work”.Mr Hancock faced criticism after denying he had claimed to have “thrown a protective ring around care homes” at the start of the pandemic – despite making the now-notorious statement live on TV.On the roadmap decision, the health secretary said: “We will give people enough time ahead of the 21 June date which is pencilled in as the next step – which is to be not before 21 June – and the critical thing is to see whether the four tests we have set have been met.“That’s in terms of the number of cases, and cases are rising slightly, the number of hospitalisations, which are much more flat. That’s because the third test, the rollout of the vaccine, is going incredibly well.“Then, of course, we have to look at the impact of new variants and we have seen a very significant impact of a new variant – the Delta variant – over the last month or so.” More