Markus Andrews

Boris Johnson is on course to lose his seat and neither of the two main political parties is likely to win an outright majority at the next general election, according to a new poll.It is the first detailed survey of the public’s perception of the prime minister’s handling of the Brexit talks and the Covid-19 pandemic after he reversed plans to allow families to meet up at Christmas in parts of southern England to combat the spread of the virus.More than 22,000 people were surveyed in a closely watched constituency-by-constituency poll over a four-week period in December, which was conducted by the research data company Focaldata and published by The Sunday Times.The so-called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll predicted that at the next general election, not due until 2024, the ruling Conservatives would lose 81 seats, wiping out the 80-seat majority. This would leave the Conservatives with 284 seats, while the opposition Labour Party would win 282 seats, the poll showed.The Scottish National Party, which wants to break away from the rest of the United Kingdom, is predicted to win 57 of the 59 seats in Scotland, meaning the party could potentially play a kingmaker role in forming the next government.
Mr Johnson is at risk of losing his own seat of Uxbridge in west London, the poll found.He won a resounding election victory last year that allowed him to take Britain out of the European Union’s orbit on New Year’s Eve after almost half a century of close ties.Inside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayInside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayBut Mr Johnson’s premiership may increasingly be defined by the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, which has already killed more than 74,000 people and crushed the economy. More

Welcoming in the new year, the education secretary Gavin Williamson declined to break with the tradition of eleventh-hour U-turns that seemingly characterised the government’s approach to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.With just days remaining until primary schools are due to reopen their doors after the Christmas break and rapidly rising transmissions of Covid-19, the Department for Education opted to override a schools’ policy announced just three days ago.Under the initial plan, secondary schools and colleges were set to be closed for two weeks at the start of term while some primary schools in London were still being asked to reopen their doors on 4 January. More

Gavin Williamson is coming under intensifying pressure to delay the reopening of all schools in England, as one of the country’s largest education unions hit out at what it described as the government’s “reckless” strategy.On Saturday, a series of high-profile unions issued statements calling for an immediate switch to remote learning – just days before primary schools outside London are set to reopen their doors after the Christmas holidays.The National Association of Headteachers urged all schools to move to home learning for a “brief and determined period” as it announced legal action against the Department for Education (DfE) over the scientific advice the government is drawing on and Covid testing arrangements for institutions.Following an emergency meeting of its executive, the National Education Union said it would inform its members of their legal right not to return to classrooms in “unsafe conditions” amid fears over the new variant of Covid-19.The NASUWT also said it had written to Mr Williamson to “introduce an immediate move to remote education for all pupils in primary, secondary and special shops and colleges” and said it was the “only sensible and credible option” to minimise the risks to those working in schools.The union’s Welsh branch warned it would take “appropriate action” to protect its members if Wales’ government did not move all learning online. NASUWT official Neil Butler said face-to-face lessons should be suspended until schools could re-assess the risk posed by the new Covid-19 strain.Inside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayInside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayThe row follows the education secretary’s U-turn on Friday evening, telling all primary schools in London and some areas of the southeast not to reopen their doors to children on Monday in what he described as a “last resort” measure.The schools will switch to remote learning until at least the 18 January, with an exception for vulnerable children and those of key workers such as NHS staff.As it stands, most other primaries across the country will resume lessons on 4 January while secondary schools will reopen on a staggered basis, with exam year pupils returning on 11 January and others a week later.But the education secretary came under pressure on Saturday to delay the reopening for all schools across England as unions and opposition MPs raised concerns about the safety of staff.The NEU said: “We are calling on Gavin Williamson to actually do what he professes he does: to follow the science and announce, now, that primary schools in England should move to online learning – apart from key worker and vulnerable children for at least the first two weeks of January.“It is not good enough to always be behind the curve, playing catch up with new strains of Covid, seeing hospital admissions rise and case numbers spiral out of control.”The union added that they will also inform their members that “they have the legal right to refuse to work in unsafe conditions which are a danger to their health and to the health of their school communities and more generally”.“We will be informing our members that they have the right to work in safe conditions which do not endanger their health. This means that they can be available to work from home and to work with key worker and vulnerable children but not available to take full classes from Monday 4 January.“We realise that this late notice is a huge inconvenience for parents and for head teachers. The fault, however, is of the government’s own making and is a result of their inability to understand data, their indecisiveness, and their reckless approach to their central duty – to safeguard public health.”The scientists added: “R would be lower with schools closed, with closure of secondary schools likely to have a greater effect than closure of primary schools. It remains difficult to distinguish where transmission between children takes place, and it is important to consider contacts made outside of schools.”Dr Patrick Roach, the general secretary of the NASUWT union, said there was “genuine concern” schools would not be able to reopen safely next week.He added: “The NASUWT is completely committed to ensuring that children can return to school as quickly as possible. However, it is now abundantly clear that the pandemic is seriously impacting on the ability of all schools and colleges to continue to operate normally.“There is genuine concern that schools and colleges are not able to reopen fully and safely at this time.”The GMB union, which represents school support staff, said it will take action to defend the safety of its members unless the education secretary delays the reopening of schools in England.National officer Stuart Fegan said: “Gavin Williamson is at sixes and sevens over the reopening of schools. His shambolic approach is a recipe for chaos and danger. It’s causing huge stress.“As infection rates rise, we need a consistent approach, not a postcode lottery. The education secretary now needs to apply some common sense, make a full U-turn, and delay reopening all schools in England until proper safeguards are in place. No one wants to disrupt any child’s learning but action is needed to protect people and make schools safe.”On Saturday evening, the Association of School and College Leavers (ASCL) also joined the calls for the delay, saying the government’s plans for the spring term were “untenable”.Geoff Barton, the association’s general secretary, said: “The arrangements it has announced are hopelessly confused and we have seen no scientific rationale for them. Many school and college leaders have no confidence in the government’s approach, and we are very concerned about the safety of families, staff, and the wider community.“We fully support keeping education functioning as fully as possible during the Covid crisis but this has to be done safely, or the long-term consequences and disruption will be much worse.”The Department for Education resisted calls for the an immediate delay to schools reopening across the country, 24 hours after Mr Williamson said the measure in London was a “last resort”.“Children’s education has consistently been a national priority, which is why we want classrooms to reopen wherever possible in the new term. Schools will continue to implement appropriate safety measures to help mitigate the risk of transmission,” a spokesperson said.“As we’ve said, we will move to remote education as a last resort, with involvement of public health officials, in areas where infection and pressures on the NHS are highest.” More

The 54-year-old Welsh MP had been “laid low” by the virus since the end of December, according a statement on her Twitter account.Her team tweeted on Saturday evening: “Jo has asked us to let you know that she is being treated in hospital for Covid. Thanks for all your good wishes we will give an update when we can.”Labour leader Keir Starmer was among those wishing Ms Stevens well. He tweeted: “Get well soon Jo, a dear friend and colleague.”Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford said: “All of our thoughts and best wishes are with Jo for a speedy recovery.”Thank you to Jo’s constituency team for continuing to support Cardiff Central constituents at this difficult time.”Ms Stevens’ team had first revealed that she was ill with coronavirus on New Year’s Eve.Inside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayInside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayThey tweeted: “Jo has been laid low with COVID for a while so on behalf of us and Jo, Happy New Year to everyone across #CardiffCentral.  “Here’s to a healthier and better 2021. Tonight we’ll be thinking of all those who have lost loved ones to this awful virus.”Ms Stevens was elected as MP for Cardiff Central in 2015 and served as shadow solicitor general and shadow Welsh secretary under Jeremy Corbyn. She quit the shadow cabinet in 2017 in order to vote against Article 50.Kier Starmer appointed her as shadow secretary of state for digital, culture, media and sport in April 2020. More

Ministers have been accused of failing jobless young people, after falling far short of a promise to recruit 30,000 new apprentices to the civil service.A senior Conservative said the government had not made achieving the pledge “a priority” – and criticised an attempt to blame the embarrassing shortfall on Covid-19.In fact, the target was set four years ago – to ensure that Whitehall “leads by example” – and only 16,155 apprentices had been recruited by the time of the lockdown in March.It follows a wider failure to sign up 3 million apprentices across the economy between 2017 and 2020, with only around 2.2 million recruited.Robert Halfon, the Tory chair of the Commons Education Committee, told The Independent: “There is no excuse for this. It’s got to change.”The Prospect trade union, representing civil servants, said the low number of recruits was “symptomatic of a wider malaise at the heart of government” in planning for the future.And Toby Perkins, Labour’s shadow minister for apprenticeship, said: “Young people have been worst hit by the rise in unemployment.Inside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayInside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekday“The government should be looking to increase training and employment opportunities as a result of the pandemic, but instead it’s putting them on pause.”
A Cabinet Office strategy document from January 2017 said: “This government will ensure at least 30,000 apprenticeship starts in the civil service by 2020, annually delivering 2.3 per cent of the workforce in England as apprenticeship starts.“We are leading by example in the public sector and have been instrumental in the design, development and delivery of at least fifteen new apprenticeship standards to date.
“Our apprentices will gain the transferable skills needed to succeed in the modern economy, while contributing to our manifesto commitment to create three million high quality new apprenticeships across the country by 2020.”
By March this year, the 16,155 apprenticeship recruits made up only 2.1 per cent of the workforce, not 2.3 per cent.Yet Julia Lopez, a Cabinet Office minister, told MPs that it had been “on track to meet those targets”, adding: “Unfortunately, because of the pandemic, that has been delayed slightly to April.”But Mr Halfon said, of the claim that the coronavirus was to blame: “It may be partly true, but the government has taken its eye off the ball.”
He called for every public sector job to be advertised for an apprentice and for the “postcode lottery” of some departments doing well, while others failed to act, to be tackled.
“The government needs to make this a priority, to meet this target and then to exceed the target – to make it a first resort, not a last resort,” the committee chairman said.
Garry Graham, deputy general secretary of Prospect, said: “The failure of the government to meet its own apprenticeships target is symptomatic of a wider malaise at the heart of government.”
Calling for a proper “skills audit”, he added: “We have heard occasional warm words from the government but see very little in terms of concrete action.”
The wider target of 3 million apprenticeships was set in 2015 by the then chancellor, George Osborne, but has been dogged by a falling number of placements.There were just 319,000 starts in the academic year to last July, down from 375,800 in 2017-18 – which was itself a 24 per cent fall on the previous year.
The problems have been blamed on a levy placed on every large company or public-sector organisation, of 0.5 per cent of their payroll, to pay for apprenticeship courses.It involved an end to public funding of a lot of workplace training – and employer groups complained the changes were bureaucratic and inflexible.
A Cabinet Office spokesperson said: “We are firmly committed to recruiting 30,000 civil service apprentices by April.”The government also said it had introduced payments of £2,000 to employers who hire new apprentices, after missing the wider 3 million target. More

Brexit Briefing: The end of the transition periodLorries bound for Ireland from the UK have already fallen foul of the news customs arrangements imposed on Britain following its exit from the European Union this week. Ferry operator Stena Line said on Friday it had turned away six lorries headed for Dublin because drivers did “not have the correct references”. While traffic remained light around Dover and the Channel Tunnel rail link, president of the Irish Road Haulage Association Eugene Drennan warned over delays inevitably coming to Dublin port.“There will be delays, for sure,” Mr Drennan told The Times. “The mayhem that’s coming in Dublin port is unbelievable.”Inside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayInside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayShow latest update
1609596426Opinion: What the future holds for politics in 2021We all have to improvise in these unusual times. That applies to the Peter Mandelson Memorial Dim Sum Supper just as much as to any other venerable institution of the unwritten British constitution, writes John Rentoul. One of the great strengths of the constitution is that it can adapt in a crisis, so the participants in the supper were undaunted by the closure of restaurants.The dim sum deliberations proceeded without the dim sum. As with most politics, this year’s proceedings took place over Zoom. Just to preserve the spirit of the occasion, I cooked some duck gyoza from Itsu afterwards (recommended).  Read more:Tom Embury-Dennis2 January 2021 14:071609595276Government under increasing pressure to delay reopening schoolsThe Government is facing increasing pressure from teaching unions to delay the reopening of all schools in England amid fears over the spread of the new strain of Covid-19.The National Education Union (NEU) said all primary and secondary schools should remain closed for two weeks following the Christmas break, while the NASUWT has written to the Education Secretary calling for an “immediate nationwide move to remote education” for all pupils.On Friday, Gavin Williamson confirmed that all London primary schools will remain shut next week – rather than just those in certain boroughs as set out earlier in the week.But unions say extending that to all schools in England is “the only sensible and credible option”.General secretary of the NEU, Dr Mary Bousted, told BBC Breakfast: “The danger is that by opening schools as levels of infection are rising so high and are already so high amongst pupils, then we’re not going to break that chain and our NHS will become overwhelmed so we said all schools should be closed for the first two weeks.”We regret to have to say that, we don’t want to have to say the schools will close but our fear is if we don’t do something now, they’re going to have to be closed for a much longer period later on this month.”Tom Embury-Dennis2 January 2021 13:471609594313UK and EU agree 12-month grace period on rules of origin paperworkUK companies exporting into the EU will not have to complete paperwork certifying that their goods are locally made until 2022, reducing the burden of red tape facing many industries.The UK and EU have agreed the 12-month grace period on so-called rules of origin paperwork to give firms time to adapt to the new regime.  While companies will not have to fill in a mountain of extra forms, they must still abide by rules of origin during the grace period. That means goods must be locally sourced, or for have had sufficient work carried out on them in the UK.The Independent’s business correspondent, Ben Chapman, has more:Tom Embury-Dennis2 January 2021 13:311609592914Conservative MP criticises Telegraph newspaper over Covid coverageNeil O’Brien, Conservative MP for Harborough, Oadby and Wigston, has published a Twitter thread criticising a host of Telegraph articles which attempted to play down the coronavirus pandemic or called for easing of restrictions. Responding to an opinion piece in the newspaper titled, “Let’s admit what we got wrong in 2020, and shake things up in 2021”, Mr O’Brien said: “Great idea.  I have some suggestions.”He proceeded to link to a series of articles which, shall we say, have not aged well now the UK is suffering from records numbers of cases and hospitalisations. David Gauke, a former Conservative minister, later tweeted: “It is brave of a serving Conservative MP to make these points about the Telegraph’s COVID coverage. But he’s spot on.”Tom Embury-Dennis2 January 2021 13:081609591976Johnson to lead public sector recruitment driveBoris Johnson has said he wants to see a public sector recruitment bonanza in 2021 as the UK battles to see off the coronavirus pandemic.Government figures suggest the number of doctors and nurses rose last year but the Prime Minister said he wanted to go further in the coming 12 months.A Downing Street spokesman said that Mr Johnson is set to call on those looking for a job or a career change to consider frontline public sector roles in 2021.More than one million jobs are thought to have been lost as a result of restrictions brought in to control the spread of coronavirus.As part of efforts to reach those affected by the jobs downturn, there is set to be a recruitment blitz in the coming months to encourage people to consider taking up frontline posts across the NHS, teaching and prisons.There will also be a specific television advertising drive for police officers, due to start on Tuesday January 5, across England and Wales.Tom Embury-Dennis2 January 2021 12:521609590533What are the new border checks to enter the EU?The Independent’s travel correspondent, Simon Calder, answers readers’ questions about the new rules and regulations facing travellers keen on exploring Europe after Brexit. Tom Embury-Dennis2 January 2021 12:281609589448Head teachers attack government over ‘utterly chaotic’ school reopening plansHead teachers have criticised the Government’s “utterly chaotic” handling of school reopenings after a decision to close some primary schools was announced at short notice.Education Secretary Gavin Williamson on Friday confirmed that all London primary schools will remain shut next week as the capital battles with high levels of coronavirus infections.Most other primary schools are expected to still open on Monday while secondary schools will reopen on a staggered basis, with exam year pupils returning on January 11 and others returning a week later.While the London move has been welcomed as the “right decision”, the Government was also accused of making another U-turn just days after it told some schools to reopen for the new term.Unions have also called for all schools in England to remain closed amid the spread of the new Covid-19 variant.Tom Prestwich, a head teacher of a primary school in south London, said he learned about the change in policy on Twitter on Friday afternoon.He told BBC Breakfast: “We’d actually just sent a letter out to parents saying that we were still opening next week, and then after that the story broke pretty much straight away.”Mr Prestwich added: “I was half expecting some kind of change of policy but by the time it gets to 5pm on a Bank Holiday Friday, you kind of think they might have stuck with a decision, although I am glad that they’ve changed this one.”Tom Embury-Dennis2 January 2021 12:101609588466Families set to be hit by expiry of government’s coronavirus support, Labour warnsStruggling families are set to face a series of hits to their finances in the coming weeks and months thanks to the expiry of government coronavirus support, Labour has warned.The government’s eviction ban will come to an end on 11 January, with 29 January also the deadline for self-employed people to access grants. This will be followed by the deadline for mortgage holiday applications on 31 January.Meanwhile universal credit claimants will lose the temporary boost to their social security payments on 6 April. The government’s furlough scheme is scheduled to come to an end on 30 April.Read more:Tom Embury-Dennis2 January 2021 11:541609587186Londoners relieved after UK formally exits EUAFP news agency have shared a clip in which Londoners give their thoughts on Britain’s exit from the European Union, which was completed on New Year’s Eve after the UK agreed a last-minute trade deal with the trading bloc.Tom Embury-Dennis2 January 2021 11:331609586219Britain leaves EU single market with a whimper rather than a bang as chaos yet to materialiseThe first ferries arrived in Dover and Holyhead after Britain’s exit from the single market and customs union on Friday, with severe border chaos yet to materialise.Freight and transit companies attributed the relative calm at entry ports to the reduced service on New Year’s Day and warned there could yet be disruption of the kind seen last week during border closures.Yet despite the lack of tailbacks the new rules still caused problems, with half a dozen lorries turned away from one port for not having the correct paperwork to export to the EU.The Independent’s policy correspondent Jon Stone has more:Tom Embury-Dennis2 January 2021 11:16 More

A government vaccine adviser has defended plans to delay the second dose of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine from three weeks to 12 weeks after the first jab, as the United States’ top doctor said he disagreed with the approach.Dr Anthony Fauci, the American infectious disease expert, said the “optimal time” for patients to receive the second vaccine dosage 21 days after the first, telling CNN he “would not be in favour” of the UK government’s strategy.“Everyone will still receive their second dose and this will be within 12 weeks of their first,” it added in a statement. “The second dose completes this course and is important for longer term protection.”The change in strategy was welcomed by some experts, but Dr Fauci told CNN: “You can make an argument and some people are regarding stretching out the doses, giving a single dose across the board and the hoping you are going to get the second dose in time to give to individuals. I would not be in favour of that.”The British Medical Association also claimed it was “grossly unfair” that patients who have already received their fist dose of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine were having appointments cancelled due to the change in guidance.But speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, professor Anthony Harnden, the deputy chairman of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), stressed that delaying the second dose was the correct approach.Inside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayInside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayHe said that patients he had dealt with accepted the move, adding: “When it was explained to them that the vaccine offers 90 per cent protection for one dose, and the priority was to get as many people vaccinated in the elderly and vulnerable community as possible, they understood.“I think the country is all in this together. And I think we really, really want to pull together to try ad do the best strategy possible”. He insisted: “It’s clear from looking at the data the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine after one dose after 14 days is 90 per cent.”Pressed on Dr Fauci’s comments, he replied: “That’s up to the Americans what they do… we’re not saying that you shouldn’t have a second dose, you do need a second dose, but that it can be temporarily delayed so that we can get many, many more people vaccinated in this vulnerable and elderly group as well as the clinically extremely vulnerable groups so that we get on top of this virus much quicker.“We are in a dire situation in this country at the moment. The virus is rapidly spreading and the more vaccine we can get into these priority groups that we’ve identified the more deaths and hospitalisations that we will prevent.”More than a million people have received their first coronavirus vaccination but in a joint statement England’s chief medical officer professor Chris Whitty and his counterparts in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland said the public will “understand” and “thank” them for the plan to give first jabs as a priority, delaying the follow-up vaccination for others.The UK is preparing to send out the new Oxford University and AstraZeneca vaccine, with 530,000 doses available for rollout from Monday and The Times reported that two million doses are due to be supplied each week by the middle of January – enabling a significant scaling of up the vaccine rollout. More

The warning comes after a number of lorries headed for Ireland, which remains in the EU, fell foul of the new customs arrangements that came into force at 11pm on New Year’s Eve.Ferry operator Stena Line on Friday said it had turned away six lorries from a Holyhead service to Dublin because drivers did “not have the correct references”.Eugene Drennan, president of the Irish Road Haulage Association, told The Times: “There will be delays, for sure. The mayhem that’s coming in Dublin port is unbelievable.”Lorries arriving into Northern Ireland – which now operates under different customs arrangements to the rest of the UK – also saw delays, with nearly half on one ferry being subjected to inspection on arrival in Belfast, haulage association Logistics UK claimed.But for now severe border chaos is yet to arrive at Britain’s major ports, due in part to reduced services on New Year’s Day.Dover on Friday saw just a trickle of lorries, with operator Eurotunnel saying traffic was particularly quiet because businesses had stockpiled in advance of a possible no-deal.Inside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayInside Politics newsletterThe latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox every weekdayThe Road Haulage Association, which represents lorry operators, said the chaos would be largely invisible and take the form of drivers being turned away for not having the right paperwork rather than tailbacks.“This is the quietest time of the year,” Ian Davies, Stena Line’s head of UK ports, told Sky News. “The true test will come when the volume starts to build.”Businesses trading with Europe will now have to deal with dramatically more bureaucracy, filling in around 200 million extra customs declarations and year as frictionless trade comes to an end.A last-minute free trade agreement negotiated by Boris Johnson managed to reduce some of the damage caused by the policy, but the new settlement is still expected to reduce UK growth by around 5.4 per cent in the long-term, according to the government’s own estimates. More