Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak is staring at an electoral catastrophe as two more polls confirmed that the Tories could be stranded as the third party in British politics after the election.With just two weeks to go before the election date a new Redfield and Wilton poll has put Reform ahead of the Tories for the second time in a week while the Techne UK weekly tracker poll for The Independent has seen Nigel Farage’s party close within two points.Michela Morizzo, chief executive of Techne UK, said: “The election is just two weeks away, and it’s normal to see more undecided voters. But this time the political scenario is more complicated than ever and political parties – above all the Conservatives – have only fortnight to try to persuade those who are undecided or defected to Reform to come back.“At this time things look very bleak indeed for Rishi Sunak and his Conservatives. Let’s see what the last two weeks of campaign will bring.”Both polling outcomes would consign the Conservatives to less than 50 seats and give the Lib Dems a chance of being the official opposition even though they are only polling at 11 and 12 percent in the two polls.The disastrous results come after the Tory campaign has been hit by a scandal of people close to Mr Sunak’s inner circle betting on the election date just before he called it. In a campaign which has already been dogged by mishaps including leaving the D-Day commemorations early, Mr Sunak has now lost his director of campaigning Tony Lee to the gambling scandals. The Redfield and Wilton poll puts Labour 23 points ahead of Reform on 42 percent with Farage’s party on 19 percent and the Tories one point back on 18 percent. It follows the shock YouGov poll last week which put Reform a point ahead of the Conservatives.If this were to be the outcome of an election it Electoral Calculus, the prediction website, calculates that Labour would have a majority of 366 with the Lib Dems on 56 seats, Tories 35 and Reform five.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during a visit to Sizewell in Suffolk, while on the General Election campaign trail has a lot to think about (PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailA number of Reform UK candidates are set to win their seats in the upcoming general election as the Tories faltering campaign grinds on, according to a new shock poll.In a major boost for party leader Nigel Farage, up to five Reform candidates are predicted to become MPs, according to YouGov’s most recent projection. The MRP poll also predicts the Tories would drop to just 108 seats, losing 257 of the seats they won in 2019, and Labour would win a huge majority of 425 seats, up by 223.The Reform candidates predicted to win include leader Nigel Farage, former Tory chair Lee Anderson, Stephen Conlay, Rupert Lowe and Sean Roger Matthews. Here, The Independent takes a closer look at the Reform UK candidates set to take their seats in the Commons on 5 July. Stephen Conlay( More

Sign up to our free fortnightly newsletter from The Independent’s Race Correspondent Nadine WhiteSign up to our free fortnightly newsletter The Race ReportA Black politician has reported racist abuse received in response to an election campaign video to the Metropolitan Police.Labour’s Dawn Butler received a torrent of abuse from online trolls after she released a video of herself rapping on a version of So Solid Crew’s “21 Seconds”.The Labour candidate for the new Brent East seat constituency, who has been MP in Brent Central since 2015, recorded the clip to mark 21 days remaining until the general election on 4 July. The Independent understands two images depicting monkeys have been reported to the Met Police.Ms Butler said: “The abuse that Black women in public life receive is absolutely appalling. “I can say that from personal experience and if people want just a snippet of what it is like, they can look for my regular ‘Block of the Week’ feature on social media every Friday, containing horrific abuse.” The “21 Seconds” clip was posted last Thursday but she said further abuse this week over a post she made on X, formerly Twitter, highlights the issue.Ms Butler was speaking to The Independent as the charity Glitch launches a campaign to address abuse aimed at Black women in politics ahead of polling day.A racist image sent to Dawn Butler More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailPeter Mandelson has resigned from the board of his lobbying firm weeks before Labour is set to enter No 10. Keir Starmer is now widely predicted to win by a landslide on July 4, returning his party to government for the first time since 2010. And there are predictions the overwhelming scale of the victory could guarantee he stays in Downing Street for a decade. Now it has emerged that Lord Mandelson has resigned as a director of Global Counsel.The move by the former business secretary has prompted speculation he would be free for a possible government role. But it is thought nothing has changed since he ruled out a return to frontline politics earlier this year. The peer raised eyebrows when he said Sir Keir could stand to “shed a few pounds” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has been hit with another blow after a major new survey suggested that voters now prefer Nigel Farage than “a Conservative leader” to be leader of the opposition to Labour.The same survey by Redfield and Wilton shows that 50 percent think it was wrong to exclude Mr Farage from the televised head-to-head leaders debate between Mr Sunak and Keir Starmer on 26 Jine.The results have landed after a new row has broken out over the Tories latest social media campaign launched this morning showing Labour rolling out the red carpet for illegal migrants on a beah. Mr Farage accused the Tories of being “liars and cheats” in the advert after months of failure in stopping the small boats. The Redfield and Wilton poll, exclusively carried out for The Independent, also reveals that more voters would like to see Farage’s Reform party replace the Tories than those wanting the Conservatives to remain as the leading centre right party.Farage has made support for country sports a major More

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insightBoris Johnson will lift the lid on his time in Downing Street publishing an “unrestrained” memoir called Unleashed.The former prime minister announced the book will be published by William Collins on 10 October.It promises to cover all the key moments from his time as London mayor to his role in the Brexit referendum and his stint in Downing Street between 2019 and 2022.Boris Johnson will detail what he called the ‘huge realignment that took place in UK politics in the last 15 years’ More

Gove labels insider election betting ‘reprehensible’ as second Tory candidate investigatedSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has been rocked by an election betting scandal after a Conservative candidate and her husband are investigated over a bet relating to the timing of the general election. Tory candidate for Bristol North West Laura Saunders and the party’s director of campaigning Tony Lee are currently being looked into by the Gambling Commission. The prime minister is now facing urgent calls to suspend the probed party members after Sir Keir Starmer attacked Mr Sunak for failing to do so. Other parties like Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper labelled the situation an “utter disgrace” and Labour’s campaign co-ordinator Pat McFadden urged the PM to withdraw support from candidates immediately. The Tory couple are the latest figures to face gambling allegations after Craig Williams apologised over betting on the date of the general election. It comes as a police officer in Mr Sunak’s close protection team was arrested and suspended over alleged bets about the timing of the general election.Show latest update 1718895345George Osborne: Starmer cannot ‘assume’ he’ll get two terms in Downing StreetThe former chancellor has said that Sir Keir Starmer cannot “assume” he will have two terms as prime minister if he wins a huge majority on July 4. Mr Osborne added the Labour leader will have to work to “justify” a landslide win. He added: “I don’t think Starmer can assume that ‘I’m in now for a couple of terms if I get this huge, historic majority.But I don’t still see any of the kind of enthusiasm and endorsement of a Labour plan for government that I think you’d need to cement right now a long period of Labour government.“They’re going to have to do the work after the election to justify the very big majority that they look likely to win.”( More