Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour is projected to win 422 seats across the UK in a historic landslide victory, according to a new MRP prediction from YouGov released on Monday.Under this prediction, today, Labour would enjoy a 194-seat majority, larger than the one achieved by Tony Blair at the 1997 general election. The forecast predicted the Conservatives would lose 223 seats and be left with just 140. That would be the worst loss for the Tories in well over 100 years, since then-prime minister Arthur Balfour lost 246 seats in 1906. The YouGov survery suggested several prominent Tory MPs and cabinet ministers could lose their seats next month, including defence secretary Grant Shapps, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, and former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg.YouGov’s MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) prediction combines polling data from over 58,000 individuals, with local factors and voter characteristics to estimate election outcomes on a constituency level. Labour are set to secure key gains from historic Tory seats, particularly in the North of England. Constituencies thought to be going from blue to red include Leeds North West, Bury North and Bury South.The Tories are not projected to win a single new seat. In addition, they may lose all but four seats in London while Labour take 65.The Green Party could win one new seat in Bristol Central, with a projected 13 point lead over Labour, for co-leader Carla Denyer. More than 130 of 650 seats are a ‘toss-up’ according to YouGov’s analysis, with no candidate projected to win more than a 5 per cent majority. This means that 20 per cent of seats are set to be a very tight race. The Lib Dems, at 11 per cent in the polls, are projected to win 48 seats; five times more than the party won in 2019. The safest Lib Dem gains include Harrogate and Knaresborough, Cheadle, and Lewes, all of which were previously Tory seats.Meanwhile right-wing challenger party Reform UK are not projected to win any seats, despite over 300 candidates standing across the UK. The party is currently polling at 12 per cent, according to latest Techne polls.However, today’s shock announcement that Nigel Farage will take over as Reform leader could have an impact on whether the party wins seats on election day. Mr Farage remains insistent that Reform will win seats despite projections, adding: “I think there’s every chance we’ll get more votes than the Conservative Party. I genuinely do.”Farage is running as an MP for Clacton, Essex, where YouGov’s estimate show that the Tories are estimated to win 42 per cent of votes, with Labour in second at 27 per cent and Reform at 19 per cent. More

This is the moment Grant Shapps hung up the phone during a live interview when he was asked about losing his seat in the upcoming general election.A YouGov survey suggested the defence secretary could be voted out of parliament along with many of his Conservative colleagues.While presenting the polls’ results on Sky News on Monday (3 June) deputy political editor Sam Coates spotted Shapps was calling him.The camera kept rolling as Coates answered and said: “Hello Grant Shapps, you’re live on Sky News.“I’m in the studio with Sophy Ridge. Have you seen you’re about to lose your seat, according to the Sky News-YouGov projection?”There was a moment’s silence before the phone emitted a few beeps, meaning Shapps was no longer there. More

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emailsSign up to our free breaking news emailsWatch again as Nigel Farage confirmed he will stand for Reform UK in the general election in an emergency press conference on Monday (3 May).Mr Farage confirmed he is set to run in Clacton, a Tory held seat in Essex, in an emergency statement.It is understood that Mr Farage has been looking at the Essex seat for a number of months because it was previously held by Ukip’s Douglas Carswell and had a high vote in favour of Brexit.Mr Farage had announced last week that he had been taken by surprise by the early election called by Rishi Sunak and did not have time to stand as a candidate.Instead he said he would campaign for Refom around the country. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has revealed his favourite Nando’s order, and it includes a controversial side dish. He disclosed his preferred order from the peri-peri chicken restaurant when questioned by a girls’ team at Wantage Town FC.Mr Sunak said his Nando’s order was a half chicken, medium spiced, with chips and broccoli, adding: “It’s good broccoli”. The Prime Minister said he also likes to “mix it up” sometimes and get boneless chicken thighs.Mr Sunak gave his order when questioned by a girls’ team at Wantage Town FC More

Rishi Sunak has revealed his go-to Nando’s order – and it includes a helping of broccoli.The prime minister revealed his preferred dish is half a chicken, medium spiced, with chips and broccoli, declaring: “It’s good broccoli.”Mr Sunak spoke about his peri-peri chicken restaurant order when he was quizzed by a girl’s team at Wantage Town FC on Monday (3 June).The football team, made up of players between 12 and 15 years old, also asked Mr Sunak his favourite club, which he replied was Southampton. More

Nigel Farage said he felt like he was letting voters down by not standing in the election, as he announced he will stand for parliament in Clacton and lead Reform UK for the next five years.“I simply couldn’t help feeling that somehow they felt I was letting them down,” he said at a press conference on Monday (3 May).“I’ve changed my mind. It’s allowed you know, it’s not always a sign of weakness. It could potentially be a sign of strength.“So I am going to stand in this election. I’ll be launching my candidacy at midday tomorrow in the Essex seaside town of Clacton.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Tories are desperately scrambling to get up to 141 candidates in place ahead of the deadline at 4pm on Friday.Among the last ditch selections will be party members in Central Suffolk and North Ipswich tonight making a decision on whether to adopt party chairman Richard Holden amid a row that he is being “parachuted” into the constituency after “going on a chicken run” from the north east of England.The seat was left open as a result of Dr Dan Poulter defecting to Labour from the Conservatives a few weeks before the election was called. When the election was called it is understood that 191 constituencies did not have a Conservative candidate, this was added to when 10 Tory MPs including Michael Gove decided to quit. Estimates leave that number still at 141 although this has been denied by some party sources.Tory chairman Richard Holden is an MP looking for a seat More

Sir Keir Starmer has said he would be prepared to deploy nuclear weapons if needed to defend the UK.The Labour leader said the nuclear deterrent programme is “vital” to the UK’s defence and that he would be prepared to use it.Answering questions from the media during a general election campaign event at the Fusilier Museum in Bury on Monday (3 June), Sir Keir said: “On the nuclear deterrent, it is fundamental, it is a vital part of our defence and of course, that means we have to be prepared to use it.”Now nobody who aspires to be prime minister would set out the circumstances in which it would be used. That would be irresponsible.” More