Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email The last time federal elections were held in Belgium in 2019, it took nearly 18 months before a new prime minister could be sworn in to lead a seven-party coalition government.The wait was even longer after the 2010 vote when the country needed 541 days to form a government, still a world record.Belgian voters return to the national polls on Sunday, in conjunction with the European Union vote, amid a rise of both the far-right and the far-left in the country. The vote could mean complex negotiations ahead in a country of 11.5 million people who are divided by language and deep regional identities. Belgium is split along linguistic lines, with francophone Wallonia in the south and Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north, and governments are invariably formed by coalitions made of parties from both regions. The latest opinion polls suggest that a new headache is on the horizon.Two Flemish nationalist parties are poised to gather the largest shares of votes in Flanders, with the far-right Vlaams Belang, which backs independence for Flanders, is expected to win more than 25% of the vote. Just behind, the right-wing nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) could get around 20% of the vote.In French-speaking Wallonia, the Socialist Party is projected to garner as much as a quarter of the ballots ahead of liberals and the far-left Belgium’s Workers Party. Poorer Wallonia — whose decline started in the 1960’s while Flanders’ economy went up — traditionally leans in favor of national unity because the region would likely find it difficult to survive economically on its own. If the lokatest projections are confirmed, the making of a government will be extremely difficult, especially if the Flemish nationalists join forces with the extreme-right at regional level, a move that would likely exclude them from coalition talks with moderate parties. Belgian voters on Sunday not only elect a new federal parliament but also regional parliaments and members of the European Parliament. Sophie Wilmes, a former pro-business liberal caretaker prime minister, has already warned that she won’t get involved in possible coalition talks with either the far-right or the far-left. She also predicted “enormous problems” if an alliance between the N-VA and the Vlaams Belang takes shape something N-VA leader Bart De Wever has so far ruled out.“It would make the formation of a federal government almost impossible,” she was quoted in Belgian media. “Nobody wants to form a coalition with a party that allies itself with Vlaams Belang.”The surge of the anti-immigrant and separatist Vlaams Belang is reflecting a trend that has seen populist and far-right parties making gains across the EU in recent years. In Belgium, Vlaams Belang has however so far been blocked from entering governments as other Flemish parties vowed to exclude it from power.According to Laura Jacobs, a political scientist at the University of Antwerp, one of the main assets of Vlaams Belang is that it did not take part in the current government led by the liberal Alexander De Croo.“We are seeing a rise in discontent among voters, a lot of negative emotion, and the party is managing to channel this anger and embody a solution to the mistrust of the political class in Flanders,” she said in an article for the The Research and Studies Centre, at Robert Schuman Foundation.“Polls show that few voters feel represented by the political class in office, and Vlaams Belang plays on this feeling to a great extent,” she said.It’s also unclear whether the Socialists and the radical left could find a common ground and unite with the Greens after the elections notably because of the Workers Party’s ambiguous views on the Western support to Ukraine and NATO. More

Mark Harper repeated Rishi Sunak’s claim that Labour will hike household taxes by £2,000 if they win the general election during an appearance on Question Time on Thursday, 6 June.During the first televised debate of the campaign, the prime minster said analysis by Treasury civil servants showed a £38.5bn black hole in Sir Keir Starmer’s spending plans that would lead to each working household paying £2,094 more in tax.Treasury permanent secretary James Bowler said “civil servants were not involved in the production or presentation of the Conservative party’s document ‘Labour’s Tax Rises’ or in the calculation of the total figure used”. More

Two Tory ministers starred in a Gogglebox-style video reacting to the first leaders’ debate between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer.Mel Stride and Gillian Keegan were filmed watching Tuesday night’s (4 June) clash between the prime minister and the Labour leader with what appeared to be alcoholic drinks beside them, similar to the Channel 4 show.The pair offered their reactions to the debate, commenting on the PM’s “crisp” shirt and telling Sir Keir to stop talking about Liz Truss.A YouGov instant reaction poll gave Mr Sunak a narrow win of 51 per cent to 49 per cent in the debate. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email An exit poll suggested Thursday that Geert Wilders’ far-right party and a center-left-alliance were neck-and-neck in Dutch elections for the European Union parliament.In a possible harbinger of strong electoral gains for the hard right in the Europe Union, the exit poll indicated that Wilders’ Party for Freedom had made the biggest gains — winning seven seats, up from just one in the last parliament.The poll of some 20,000 voters published by national broadcaster NOS predicted that the center left alliance would win eight of the 31 European Parliament seats up for grabs in the Netherlands.Having sent shockwaves around Europe six months ago by becoming the biggest party in the Dutch national parliament, Wilders now wants to build on that popularity and set the tone for much of the bloc, with calls to claw powers back to national capitals and away from the EU so member states have more autonomy on issues such as migration. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNigel Farage’s decision to stand as a candidate in the general election has given his party Reform UK a three point boost a new poll has suggested.The weekly tracker poll by Techne UK for The Independent has registered Reform’s support climbing from 12 points to 15 in the week since Farage made his dramatic announcement in the seaside town of Clacton.Meanwhile, following the television debate between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer, the Tories and Labour both lost a point in support dropping to 44 percent and 20 percent respectively.The Lib Dems were down one to 10 percent and Greens remained the same on 6 percent.Loading….This is the third poll to suggest a surge in support for Reform UK on the right splitting the Tory vote. A Yougov poll last night put them within two points of the Conservatives on 17 percent and 19 percent while another today had them both even at 18 percent.Former Tory cabinet minister Nadine Dorries, a Boris Johnson loyalist who publicly fell out with Mr Sunak, predicted that Reform would go ahead of the Conservatives in a poll by the weekend as a result of Farage standing.It was revealed by The Independent that Mr Sunak had been offered a deal which could have prevented Farage from running but rejected it.The event will mark Mr Farage’s first debate appearance since his shock takeover as leader of Reform UK (James Manning/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour’s manifesto will include a plan to officially recognise a Palestinian state “as part of the peace process”, The Independent can reveal.The bold new move also takes aim at Israel, saying that “neighbours should not be able to veto” the recognition of Palestine.The eye-catching commitment is aimed at resolving deep differences within Labour, which have given rise to huge splits between its left and centre and saw Muslim voters punish the party in the local elections last month.With thousands of Labour members involved in the weekly pro-Palestine marches, and concerns that Muslim voters are turning their backs on the party, Sir Keir Starmer has moved to try to reunify the warring factions ahead of the election.But it may be too late to convince those who have been angered by his support for Israel alongside what was seen as a purge of pro-Palestinian candidates including Faiza Shaheen, the candidate for Chingford and Woodford Green, who was replaced by a member of the Jewish Labour Movement. Details of Keir Starmer’s manifesto have been revealed – including a plan to recognise a Palestinian state More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailTory chairman Richard Holden is facing demands that he is deselected as the candidate for Billericay and Basildon in yet another sign of chaos in the party’s election campaign.Just 24 hours after Mr Holden was imposed on a reluctant constituency association in Essex, The Independent has seen a letter to the association chairman from members demanding a special general meeting to deselect Mr Holden.The row is a huge distraction for the man who is supposed to be running the Tory election machine to try to retain power with the party more than 20 points behind in the polls.Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden leaves Downing Street, London, following a Cabinet meeting (James Manning/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Britain’s July 4 election is less than a month away. The campaign has already produced drama and disputes, even before the parties unveil their manifestos with detailed lists of promises in the coming days.This week saw Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Labour Party rival, Keir Starmer, spar in their first televised debate, and populist firebrand Nigel Farage return to dent Conservative hopes of retaining power after 14 years in office.Here are some things we’ve learned: FARAGE IS BACK — AND THE TORIES ARE WORRIED Populist firebrand Nigel Farage, whose years of invective against the European Union helped push Britain out of the bloc, sent tremors through the campaign when he announced Monday that he would run for Parliament at the helm of the right-wing party Reform U.K.Days earlier, Farage had said he wouldn’t be a candidate because it was more important to support his ally Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election in November.Farage has failed in seven previous attempts to win a House of Commons seat but stands a good chance of ousting the Conservative incumbent in the eastern England coastal town of Clacton-on-Sea.Reform is unlikely to win many other seats, but Farage’s return caused gloom in Conservative ranks. In 2019 the Farage-led Brexit Party, precursor to Reform, decided not to run against the Conservatives in hundreds of seats, a move that helped Boris Johnson secure an 80-seat Conservative majority.Now Reform could siphon votes from the Tories across the country, helping Labour and the centrist Liberal Democrats win more seats.“The Farage intervention makes a very bad election for the Conservatives potentially even worse,” said Philip Cowley, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “There will be plenty of seats in which there will be a decent Reform showing. … (and) they take more votes from the Conservatives than they take from Labour.” TUSSLES OVER TAX The two men vying to become Britain’s next prime minister, Sunak and Starmer, debated on live television Tuesday. It was a tetchy, inconclusive event that saw neither land decisive blows.The most memorable — and contested — soundbite was Sunak’s claim that Labour’s plans would mean a 2,000 pound ($2,550) tax increase for every British household. Starmer didn’t rebut the claim until Sunak had said it several times, but then dismissed it as “garbage.”Labour claims the figure is misleading. For one thing, Sunak didn’t make clear that 2,000 pounds was the alleged increase over four years, not annually.It’s also based on disputed figures about Labour’s plans drawn up by the Conservative Party and then submitted to the Treasury for analysis. Sunak claimed the figure had been approved by “independent Treasury officials.”But it turned out that the top civil servant at the Treasury, James Bowler, had written to the Conservatives before the debate to say the figures “should not be presented as having been produced by the Civil Service.”Labour then went on the offensive, calling the figure fake news. Starmer said Sunak had “lied deliberately” with the tax claim. PERSISTENT POLLS The left-of-center Labour Party remains favorite to win the most seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. While major pollsters give varying figures, all show a double-digit Labour lead, with relatively little change since Sunak called the election on May 22.Pollster Ipsos gave Labour a 20-point lead, supported by 43% of voters to the Conservatives’ 23%, in a poll released Thursday. The pollster interviewed 1,014 U.K. adults by phone, and the margin of error was three percentage points.Cowley said that while things can change quickly in politics, “this is a government that’s tremendously unpopular, and people want rid of it.”“Once people have decided that, it’s very difficult to turn it around,” he said. MILKSHAKE MESS This week also saw the return of milkshakes as an instrument of political protest.Farage was doused with a McDonald’s shake as he left his boisterous campaign launch in Clacton. A 25-year-old local woman, Victoria Thomas Bowen, has been charged with assault.Milkshakes became an unlikely political weapon during Britain’s acrimonious disputes over Brexit after the 2016 referendum. Farage was one of several politicians splattered with a sticky beverage in 2019. “Milkshaking” — the act of dousing public figures in milkshakes — was officially recognized by Collins Dictionary the same year.Farage’s political opponents stressed that the sticky attack was no laughing matter in a polarized political atmosphere where threats against politicians are growing. Two British lawmakers, Jo Cox and David Amess, have been murdered in the past decade while meeting constituents.Labour’s law-and-order spokesperson Yvette Cooper said the dousing was a “disgraceful assault on Nigel Farage.”“Completely unacceptable and wrong. No one should face intimidation or assault in an election campaign,” she wrote on social network X. More