Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe UK’s top election expert has said the Conservatives could lose up to 500 seats in what is looking like their worst performance in four decades at the local elections.Polling guru Professor John Curtice said that the results far thus far – including the Blackpool South by-election – has meant “we’re probably looking at certainly one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performance in local government elections for the last 40-years”.Sir John said that the Tories look likely to lose around half of the seats they are defending, around 500.Asked if that result would be “catastrophic” for the party, he told Radio 4’s Today programme: “Not far short of it. I am not sure I would quite go that far but let’s put it together. Blackpool South, the third biggest swing in post-war by-election history, and the point is it is not an isolated event.“This is now the fifth parliamentary by-election in which we have seen swings of over 20 per cent from Conservative to Labour. The last time we had swings of that size with any degree of regularity was the 92-97 parliament. Tony Blair didn’t get as many as that and we know what happened in 1997.“The local elections, of course the Conservatives, as they have rightly been pointing out, were defending a very high baseline, losses did seem inevitable.“But so far they are basically losing a half of the seats they are trying to defend. If that continues they may end up losing 500 or so seats which was the thing they were meant to avoid.”Sir John’s comments come as the Conservatives are bracing themselves for yet more disappointment as the results from the local council elections trickle in.Labour has also hailed a “seismic” by-election win in Blackpool South. Labour took the seat from the Conservatives with 58.9 per cent of the vote share.Labour’s candidate Chris Webb received 10,825 votes, with the Tories trailing far behind with just 3,218 and Reform behind with just 3,218.Sir Keir Starmer said Labour’s win, in the contest to replace ousted Tory MP Scott Benton, was “truly historic” and the “most important result” nationally.Counting is under way in the 107 councils in England that held elections on Thursday, with the first results declared overnight and more to come later on Friday. Thus far, Labour have the key battlegrounds of Hartlepool, Redditch, Sunderland and Thurrock.Sir John Curtice warned the Conservative party against taking comfort in any wins in Teesside and West Mids More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe UK’s top election expert has said the Conservatives could lose up to 500 seats in what is looking like their worst performance in four decades at the local elections.Polling guru Professor John Curtice said that the results far thus far – including the Blackpool South by-election – has meant “we’re probably looking at certainly one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performance in local government elections for the last 40-years”.Sir John said that the Tories look likely to lose around half of the seats they are defending, around 500.Asked if that result would be “catastrophic” for the party, he told Radio 4’s Today programme: “Not far short of it. I am not sure I would quite go that far but let’s put it together. Blackpool South, the third biggest swing in post-war by-election history, and the point is it is not an isolated event.“This is now the fifth parliamentary by-election in which we have seen swings of over 20 per cent from Conservative to Labour. The last time we had swings of that size with any degree of regularity was the 92-97 parliament. Tony Blair didn’t get as many as that and we know what happened in 1997.“The local elections, of course the Conservatives, as they have rightly been pointing out, were defending a very high baseline, losses did seem inevitable.“But so far they are basically losing a half of the seats they are trying to defend. If that continues they may end up losing 500 or so seats which was the thing they were meant to avoid.”Sir John’s comments come as the Conservatives are bracing themselves for yet more disappointment as the results from the local council elections trickle in.Labour has also hailed a “seismic” by-election win in Blackpool South. Labour took the seat from the Conservatives with 58.9 per cent of the vote share.Labour’s candidate Chris Webb received 10,825 votes, with the Tories trailing far behind with just 3,218 and Reform behind with just 3,218.Sir Keir Starmer said Labour’s win, in the contest to replace ousted Tory MP Scott Benton, was “truly historic” and the “most important result” nationally.Counting is under way in the 107 councils in England that held elections on Thursday, with the first results declared overnight and more to come later on Friday. Thus far, Labour have the key battlegrounds of Hartlepool, Redditch, Sunderland and Thurrock.Sir John Curtice warned the Conservative party against taking comfort in any wins in Teesside and West Mids More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Britain’s governing Conservative Party is suffering heavy losses as local election results pour in Friday, piling pressure on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead of a U.K. general election in which the main opposition Labour Party appears increasingly likely to return to power after 14 years.Labour won control of councils in England it hasn’t held for decades and was successful in a special by-election for Parliament. Its only negative appears to have been in some areas with large Muslim populations where the party’s candidates suffered as a result of leader Keir Starmer ‘s strongly pro-Israel stance in the conflict in Gaza.Labour won Blackpool South, a long-time Labour seat in the northwest of England that went Conservative in the last general election in 2019, when then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a big victory. In the contest, triggered by the resignation of a Conservative lawmaker following a lobbying scandal, Labour’s Chris Webb secured 10,825 votes, 7,607 more than his second-placed Conservative opponent.“This seismic win in Blackpool South is the most important result today,” Starmer said. “This is the one contest where voters had the chance to send a message to Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives directly, and that message is an overwhelming vote for change.”Thursday’s elections were important in themselves, with voters deciding who will run many aspects of their daily lives, such as garbage collection, road maintenance and local crime prevention, in the coming years. But with a general election looming, they will be viewed through a national prism.The results so far provide more evidence that Labour is likely to form the next government — and by quite a margin — and that Starmer will become prime minister. As of early Friday, with barely a quarter of the 2,661 seats up for grabs counted, the Conservatives were down 115 while Labour was up 60.The results will roll in through Saturday. Sunak hopes he can point to successes, notably in several key mayoral races, to douse talk that the Conservative Party will change its leader again before the United Kingdom’s main election, which could take place as soon as next month. Key to his survival could be the results of mayoral elections in Tees Valley in the northeast of England and in the West Midlands. The former is due Friday lunchtime and the latter on Saturday. Should Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen hold on, he may win some respite from restive lawmakers in his party. Should both lose, he may face trouble. Labour’s Sadiq Khan is expected to remain mayor of London when results are announced on Saturday..Sunak could preempt any challenge by threatening to call a general election that has to take place before January 2025. He has the power to decide on the date and has indicated that it will be in the second half of 2024. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak is facing a make-or-break 48 hours as some Tory MPs plot to engineer his downfall even as the local election results in England are still being counted.The chances of the prime minister facing a vote of no confidence from his MPs were heightened on Thursday when the latest YouGov poll revealed the party is even less popular under his leadership than during the calamitous premiership of Liz Truss.According to the survey, taken on 30 April and 1 May, the Conservatives are down to just 18 per cent – 26 points behind Labour on 44 per cent and a mere three points ahead of Reform UK on 15 per cent.If this were repeated in a general election, the Tories would be reduced to 32 seats with Sir Keir Starmer holding a majority of 388, according to prediction site Electoral Calculus.There was further bad news from a Techne UK poll of 1,632 voters, partly taken during polling day, which put Labour on 44 per cent and the Tories on 22 per cent. The survey data revealed that only 43 per cent of those who backed the Tories in the 2019 election would do so at the next general election.Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is forecast to suffer heavy losses in Thursday’s local elections More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailWhile a donkey may have been spotted at one polling station, it was our furry canine friends who once again stole the show on election day.Scores of dogs, of all breeds, shapes and sizes, have been pictured outside polling stations waiting patiently while their masters cast their ballots in the locals.Dogs at polling stations started as a trend on what was then known as Twitter but has become somewhat of an institution over the years, with democracy-loving pooches up and down the country posing for pictures on the big day.Here are some of our favourites from local elections in 2024:Cinna, an 8-year-old rescue dog from Greece More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailVoters in England are heading to the polls to cast their ballots in local elections viewed as the final big test of public opinion before the general election.Elections are taking place in 107 local authorities across the country, with 2,636 seats up for grabs. Voters will also choose the mayor of London, London assembly members and 10 other mayors outside the capital.There is also a by-election taking place in Blackpool South following the resignation of former Conservative MP Scott Benton. Voters in England and Wales will also choose new police and crime commissioners.Polling stations close at 10pm and some of the results will start to trickle in overnight, with others being declared throughout Friday and over the weekend.What is an exit poll?An exit poll is a survey of voters that asks them what party or politician they voted for in an election.The surveys are carried out by data companies and are usually commissioned by media organisations.At UK general elections, exit polls are used to predict how many seats each party has won and the percentage of votes they have secured.Exit polls have been used at UK general elections for at least three decades and are becoming more accurate as the methodologies used to produce them improve,At the 2019 general election, an exit poll for the  BBC, ITV and Sky News predicted that the Conservatives would get 386 MPs while Labour would get 191.In the end, the Tories won 365 seats versus Labour’s 202.2019 general election exit poll More