Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Voters in Northern Macedonia go to the polls Wednesday for a double election — parliamentary and presidential — following a campaign in which the country’s aspirations to join the European Union have played a central role. The office of prime minister wields the real power, and the president is largely ceremonial, so the parliamentary election is the more important of the two contests. The opposition center-right coalition, which is pushing back against neighboring Bulgaria’s conditions for the country’s EU candidacy, is favored to win both elections.The election for the unicameral parliament takes place in a single round, while the presidential election is the runoff of a two-round contest that began in April with the center-right candidate scoring a large lead over the center-left incumbent. More than 1,700 candidates are competing for the unicameral parliament’s 120 seats. There are also three seats reserved for expatriates, but in the last election, in 2020, turnout was too low to fill those seats. WHAT IS AT STAKE? The month-long campaign has focused on fighting corruption, improving the slugging economy and alleviating poverty, but the main hot-button issue has been over North Macedonia’s struggle to join the European Union.Demands by neighboring Bulgaria that North Macedonia’s Bulgarian minority be official recognized in the country’s constitution have been supported by the ruling center-left, but blasted by the center-right opposition as capitulation to Bulgaria.Only a tiny fraction of the country’s 1.84 million people — just over 3,500 — described themselves as Bulgarians in the last census in 2021.North Macedonia has been a candidate to join the European bloc since 2005, but was blocked for years by a dispute with neighboring Greece, which objected to the country calling itself Macedonia, arguing that it conflicted with Greece’s region of Macedonia.That dispute was resolved in 2018 with the country calling itself North Macedonia. But Bulgaria has since been blocking the country’s EU bid, saying it will lift its veto only when North Macedonia amends its constitution.Formal EU membership negotiations with North Macedonia — and fellow-candidate Albania — began in 2022 and the process is expected to take years.VMRO-DPMNE, the party the leads the center-right opposition, had once threatened to scupper the agreement with Greece over using the Macedonia name, but it has since toned down its rhetoric. Observers point to its membership in the European People’s Party and its friendly relations with the German Christian Democrats as evidence that the party will not seek to back out of the agreement. CORRUPTION North Macedonia has been cited by both the European Commission and the U.S. government as having a corruption problem, and the opposition has seized on the issue during the campaign.VMRO-DPMNE leader and election favorite Hristijan Mickoski has accused the ruling center-left coalition of presiding over a “pandemic” of corruption, though his own party’s record is far from clean. The VMRO-DPMNE’s last prime minister, Nikola Gruevski, is a fugitive from justice in Hungary.Dimitar Kovachevski, leader of the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, or SDSM, party that heads the ruling coalition, said he is aware that people are dissatisfied and has acknowledged that more could have been done to fight corruption. He has backed measures to confiscate illegally acquired property from corrupt officials.A 2023 European Commission report said corruption “remains prevalent in many areas” of North Macedonia. In December, the U.S. Ambassador to North Macedonia, Angela Aggeler, said there was “an epidemic of corruption in this country that has affected every sector, every organization, and only by exposing the corrupt actors can we begin to help the country address these issues.” WHO IS RUNNING The main two blocs are multi-party coalitions: The center-left coalition led by the SDSM, “For a European Future,” consists of 14 parties. The center-right opposition led by VMRO-DPMNE, “Your Macedonia,” has 22. For the presidency, incumbent Stevo Pendarovski of the SDSM is the clear underdog to Gordana Siljanovska Davkova of VMRO-DPMNE, who won 41.2% of the vote in the first round on April 24 to Pendarovski’s 20.5%. The two had also squared off in the last presidential election in 2019, with Pendarovski winning 53.8% to 46.2% in the runoff.Both big coalitions represent mostly ethnic Macedonians and other, small minorities. Two separate coalitions, “European Front” and VLEN (“Worth”) are contesting to represent the country’s largest minority, the Albanians, who represent about a quarter of the 1.84 million population.The “European Front,” a coalition of nine parties, is dominated by the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI). DUI, founded by people who took part in the 2001 secessionist rebellion, has been the coalition partner of every government for the past two decades. However, the VMRO-DPMNE leader Mickoski has declared he would prefer to form a government with VLEN, itself a coalition of four parties, which has positioned itself to the right of DUI.Polling has consistently been showing Mickoski’s coalition ahead of the SDSM-led coalition by a double-digit margin. A splinter Social Democrat Party, ZNAM (“For Our Macedonia”) whose leader, Maksim Dimitriavski, won 9.5% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election, could play kingmaker. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Ministry of Defence has been the target of a large-scale data breach, it is understood.Sky News reported that China was behind the cyber attack.A third-party payroll system has been hacked, potentially compromising the bank details of all serving armed forces personnel and some veterans. A very small number of addresses may also have been accessed.So many serious questions for the Defence Secretary on this, especially from Forces personnel whose details were targetedShadow defence secretary John HealeyThe department took immediate action when it discovered the breach, taking the external network – operated by a contractor – offline.It is understood that initial investigations have found no evidence that data has been removed.But affected service personnel will be alerted as a precaution and provided with specialist advice. They will be able to use a personal data protection service to check whether their information is being used or an attempt is being made to use it.All salaries were paid at the last payday, with no issues expected at the next one at the end of this month, although there may be a slight delay in the payment of expenses in a small number of cases.The Government will inform MPs of the breach when Parliament returns on Tuesday, with Defence Secretary Grant Shapps expected to make a Commons statement in the afternoon.Ministers will blame hostile and malign actors, but will not name the country behind the hacking.The MoD has been working at speed to uncover the scale of the attack since it was discovered several days ago.The revelation comes after the UK and the United States in March accused China of a global campaign of “malicious” cyber attacks in an unprecedented joint operation to reveal Beijing’s espionage.Britain blamed Beijing for targeting the Electoral Commission watchdog in 2021 and for being behind a campaign of online “reconnaissance” aimed at the email accounts of MPs and peers.Labour’s shadow defence secretary John Healey said: “So many serious questions for the Defence Secretary on this, especially from Forces personnel whose details were targeted.“Any such hostile action is utterly unacceptable. Parliament will expect a full Commons statement tomorrow.”In response to the Beijing-linked hacks on the Electoral Commission and 43 individuals, a front company, Wuhan Xiaoruizhi Science and Technology Company, and two people linked to the APT31 hacking group were sanctioned.But some of the MPs targeted by the Chinese state said the response did not go far enough, urging the Government to toughen its stance on China by labelling it a “threat” to national security rather than an “epoch-defining challenge”.Conservative former leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith repeated those calls, telling Sky News: “This is yet another example of why the UK government must admit that China poses a systemic threat to the UK and change the integrated review to reflect that.“No more pretence, it is a malign actor, supporting Russia with money and military equipment, working with Iran and North Korea in a new axis of totalitarian states.”The Metropolitan Police said it is not involved in any investigation at this stage. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has defended his claim that there will be a hung parliament after the general election, despite Tory MPs and polling experts describing it as “wishful thinking”.The prime minister said the result was not a “foregone conclusion”, and repeated his insistence that the result would be closer than current opinion polls suggest.Those current opinion polls point to a Labour landslide, with the Tories on average 20 points behind.Rishi Sunak defended the claim the general election will lead to a hung parliament More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailJohn Swinney is the new first minister in waiting having been named SNP leader after any potential rivals pulled out of the race.The former deputy first minister was the only person to put himself forward to succeed Humza Yousaf, who is expected to formally step down this week.Mr Swinney will then face a vote at Holyrood, which will likely see him appointed the Scottish Parliament’s nominated candidate to be the country’s seventh first minister.John Swinney made his first speech as new SNP leader in Glasgow on Monday (Jane Barlow/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe Liberal Democrats will try to force Rishi Sunak into calling a June general election by tabling a motion of no confidence in the government on Tuesday.Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey will table the motion as soon as parliament returns after a brutal set of local elections for the Conservatives.The motion is unlikely to pass, as it would need the backing of Conservative MPs to bring down Mr Sunak’s government, but Sir Ed said the PM should not be allowed to “desperately cling on to power”.Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey alongside Tory ‘dinosaurs’ in Winchester (Stefan Rousseau/PA) More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has conceded the Conservatives may not win the next general election, but made the extraordinary claim there would be a hung parliament. The prime minister is braced for continued fallout after the weekend’s local election results, with Tory rebels warning him to change course after a dire set of local election results. But Mr Sunak claimed the performance shows Britain is on course for a hung parliament, claiming voters would not want to see Sir Keir Starmer “propped up in Downing Street” by the SNP or smaller parties. The most recent YouGov poll puts Labour 26 points ahead of the Tories.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak claimed there would be a hung parliament after the election More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailRishi Sunak has called in Tory MPs for two mini summits in a desperate bid to calm nerves after last week’s local election drubbing.As furious plotters accused their colleagues of “giving up on beating Labour” and “accepting their fate”, as efforts to topple Mr Sunak stalled, the PM invited backbenchers to attend “local elections presentations” later this month.The summits will be held by Mr Sunak, Tory chairman Richard Holden and Conservative campaign director Isaac Levido.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will try to calm the nerves of Tory MPs after dire local election results More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailTrade union leaders have warned Sir Keir Starmer that Labour cannot take their members’ votes for granted in the upcoming general election if promises of a new package on rights have been betrayed.The warning is an ominous message for Sir Keir despite Labour’s successes in the local elections last week, amid claims the party may struggle to form a majority. Splits have already emerged with some Labour voters either staying at home or backing alternative leftwing candidates over their leader’s support for Israel with the war in Gaza. In an exclusive interview with The Independent, TUC president Matt Wrack, who is also general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union (FBU), revealed that he and other union leaders have arranged a crunch meeting with the Labour leader.It follows reports that Labour has “watered down” a policy document on workers’ rights, denied strongly by the party.Matt Wrack, new TUC president, is set to hold a crunch meeting with Sir Keir (Clive Gee/PA) More