Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailAny tax cuts promised at the next general election will need to be quickly reversed, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned the government.In a bracing warning to the government, the think tank said Britain faces the worst debt challenge since the 1950s, the challenge of which cannot be “meaningfully confronted by a government that wilfully ignores reality”.The chancellor is said to be considering a package of tax cuts as part of a pre-election giveaway Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor of the exchequer, is said to be considering cuts to income tax or further cuts to national insurance in his March budget, as improved OBR forecasts suggest the chancellor has an extra £15bn to £20bn of headroom within his target to get debt falling in five years’ time.However, the IFS has today warned that the increasing cost of debt interest means this will prove more difficult to manage in the coming year than at any time for decades.The report said: “These challenges – unlike a conflict, pandemic or financial crisis – are entirely predictable. None can be meaningfully confronted by a government that wilfully ignores reality and the need to choose between difficult competing options. As tempting as it may be to engage in ‘cakeism’ – to seek to have the government’s fiscal cake and eat it – any party serious about governing after the election should resist the urge. The electorate surely deserves better than that.”Speaking at the annual World Economic Forum meeting, Mr Hunt said that countries with lower tax burdens have “dynamic, faster growing economies”.In last year’s autumn statement, Mr Hunt announced a £10bn National Insurance cut for millions, claiming the Conservatives have delivered the biggest tax cuts in decades.However, the UK’s overall tax burden as a percentage of national income is at a post-war record high, in part due to frozen tax thresholds.The government is now expected to be considering a larger package of tax cuts as part of their pre-election offering, in the hope of swaying voters towards the Conservatives.Yesterday, Sir Keir Starmer told journalists that he was concerned that the Tories would “salt the ground” by squandering money in pre-election tax cuts that would leave an incoming Labour administration vulnerable to poor public finances and difficult spending decisions.Keir Starmer said the conservatives are ‘not acting in the national interest’ with their tax-cutting agenda Now, the IFS has said prospects for any winning government are “miserable” due to weak economic growth and the cost-of-living crisis. It warned that Mr Hunt cannot “wish away” the likely prospect that any tax cuts in the spring will either lead to later tax rises or spending cuts as future governments try to grapple with the spiralling cost of debt and flailing public services.The IFS also warned that Labour’s £28bn green prosperity plan will mean even less money for day-to-day spending, but still leave state investment lower than it currently is.Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, urged both parties to “be honest” about their plans. “If they are promising tax cuts, let’s hear where the spending cuts will fall. If they are going to raise, or even protect spending, they should tell us where taxes will rise,” he said.The IFS has also questioned the wisdom of tax cuts at the cost of public spending while the population is ageing, defence spending is rising, and voters are demanding better public services.In an effort to borrow less, the government plans to cut infrastructure investment in real terms, resulting in a decrease in investment by about £20bn. This would equate to cuts to public services outside of the NHS, schools and aid – but the detail of this has not yet been set out.The government announced a national insurance tax cut back in the Autumn Earlier this week, Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, dubbed these plans a “work of fiction”, as the current projected headroom “is very small relative to the forecast errors inherent in any forecasting process, including ours”.He also criticised the chancellor’s refusal to provide detailed information about Whitehall departmental budgets to help the OBR calculate it’s forecasts back in November. Responding to the IFS report, a Conservative Party spokesman said:“This shows Labour’s £28bn a year ‘2030’ unfunded spending promise will end up meaning thousands of pounds of higher taxes for working people.“That’s because Keir Starmer can’t say how he would pay for it as he does not have a plan.”The Labour party have been approached for comment. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Keir Starmer has announced a new Labour pledge to tackle the growing epidemic of knife crime, stating that his government will “give young people real support to achieve their potential and stay on track”, but warning if they flout that chance “they’ll feel the full force of the law”.Leaning into his credentials as former director for public prosecutions, the Labour leader has set out ambitious proposals to tackle the growing scourge of youth violence and halve knife crime by the end of his first five years in office.This includes the introduction of a major new programme of prevention and sanctions, in the form of a “youth futures” programme and tougher punishments for those caught with offensive weapons.In a statement announced today, Sir Keir said he would bring an end to existing rules that mean young people carrying knives can escape any further sanctions simply by writing an apology letter.Yesterday, Labour said it would urgently crack down on the availability of machetes and zombie-style knives and introduce tougher sanctions on those found to be carrying these weapons.Labour has said it would introduce a comprehensive ban to tackle knife crime The party also said it would introduce tough criminal sanctions on tech executives who allow knife sales on their online marketplaces, such as Amazon Marketplace, eBay and Instagram.“The number of these deadly weapons on Britain’s streets is terrifying and unacceptable,” Sir Keir said.“For years, the Tories have made grand promises of action, but by failing to bring a proper ban on these killer knives and to crack down on online sales to kids, they’re letting a generation down.“The tragic cost is being felt by too many. Young people are being killed or maimed, and communities are blighted by fear.“Labour will act. There will be nothing short of a ban by my Labour government. And we won’t stop there – we’ll crack down on online sales, too. No child should be able to buy a deadly weapon as easily as they can online today.”Idris Elba staged a knife crime protest with clothes for each of 247 people killed in the UK last yearLabour’s crime blitz comes in response to a sharp increase in recorded knife crime incidents. Since 2015, knife crime has risen by 70 per cent, yet almost half (49 per cent) of knife possession cases led to no further action.Labour analysis has revealed that over 100 people every single week received a death threat involving a knife last year – an increase of nearly fourfold since the Tories came to power in 2010. It also revealed that nearly 5,600 people received a knife-enabled death threat last year – the highest number since 2010. Ministers will today lay before parliament plans to ban dangerous zombie-style knives and machetes, first announced by the prime minister last year. Under the measures, it will be illegal to possess, sell, manufacture or transport them. Sir Keir has now pledged that his government will take a much stronger approach to possession, introducing a bespoke action plan to prevent reoffending, with increased sanctions such as curfews, tagging or behavioural contracts.The plan forms part of the party’s mission for safer streets and is part of Labour’s push to become the more trusted party on law and order. On Wednesday, Sir Keir told journalists that law and order was a “priority” for him:“Crime prevention and dealing with the consequences of crime has been a central feature of a decade of my working life. So yes, that’s why I want to fight on crime, that’s why it matters to me. And yes, I’m very happy to have that fight with the Tories going into the next election.”Sir Keir’s law-and-order push is reminiscent of New Labour’s plan to be “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime”. Back in April last year, Starmer said that “nothing is more important – more fundamental – to a democracy like ours” than the rule of law.Grace O’Malley Kumar was killed as she tried to defend a friend in a knife attack in Nottingham last year Yesterday, the Labour leader also told journalists that he was worried about the safety of young people in this country, and that “they ought to be able to walk the streets feeling safe”.“I know it sounds obvious, but is basic, it’s really important. After 14 years of this government, we do not have that level of confidence in our young people feeling safe that we ought to.”The youth futures programme is likely to echo the last Labour government’s education and prevention programme, SureStart, and would require coordination of local services to identify young people most at risk of knife crime and prevent them from ever picking up a knife.Sir Keir told The Independent: “If you look at the information the police have, the health authorities have, the schools have, the referral units have… it is perfectly possible to map those that are of greatest risk.“By putting that information together, it is possible to better identify those at risk, and that helps with the intervention side and support that’s needed, but also for intelligence-led targeting, whether it’s stop and search or the consequences of carrying a knife. That co-ordination is vitally important in a significant number of cases.”The programme will cost up to £100m a year, which Labour says will fund new youth workers and mental health hubs in every community, youth workers in A&E and mentors in pupil referral units.Labour says it plans to fund the programme through ending tax breaks for private schools and full cost recovery for gun licensing.The Labour leader and shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper are leading Labour’s mission to ‘take back our streets’ Announcing the new policies in Milton Keynes on Thursday morning, Sir Keir is expected to say: “Too many young people are being drawn into squandering their life chances by getting involved in crime. A government that I lead won’t think we can press release away soaring youth crime.“No more apology letters, no more weak warnings. If you carry a knife, you’ll carry the consequences. But this is not just about sanctions once the choices have been made. I saw as chief prosecutor the power of prevention – lives are being lost to knife crime because Tory governments don’t.“Labour will turn this around. We will give young people real support to achieve their potential and stay on track, but flout that chance, and they’ll feel the full force of the law.”The Home Office and Ministry of Justice have been approached for comment. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email A fresh civil war has erupted within the Conservatives after a top ally of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson called for Rishi Sunak to be sacked and replaced.Former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke said the Tories would be “massacred” at the coming election unless the party had a new leader.But senior Tories lashed out at his “foolish” and “facile” move, while former defence secretary Ben Wallace warned it was “division and another PM [that] would lead to the certain loss of power”.As his attempted coup fizzled to a halt even his allies turned on him. Organisers made clear he would not now speak at a Popular Conservativism conference next month, even though the posters for the event feature his picture. A source told The Independent that they had “dumped” him.Supporters of Mr Sunak suspect the intervention by Sir Simon, who was levelling up secretary in Ms Truss’s cabinet and awarded a knighthood by Mr Johnson, is the latest evidence of a carefully planned right-wing plot against the PM.Sir Simon Clarke is leading calls for a new leader of the Conservative Party Tory loyalists said the orchestrated campaign to remove Mr Sunak included the following:A controversial poll last week organised by ex-Brexit minister Lord Frost which claimed the Conservatives faced a landslide election defeatLord Frost has refused to name shadowy Tory donors who paid for the survey in right-wing newspaper The Daily TelegraphSir Simon and fellow Sunak critic Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg have joined the new Popular Conservatism group, set up by Ms TrussThe moves follow a right-wing Tory revolt, in which Sir Simon played a key role, against the PM’s Rwanda billJohnson cheerleader Nadine Dorries greeted news of a possible leadership challenge to Sunak with a three-word post on Twitter/X: ‘And we’re off’Writing in the Telegraph, Sir Simon dubbed Mr Sunak’s leadership “uninspiring” and said he was “the main obstacle to our recovery”.He wrote: “The unvarnished truth is that Rishi Sunak is leading the Conservatives into an election where we will be massacred.”His piece prompted fury from MPs loyal to Mr Sunak but little support from those on the right of the party, including MPs worried the prime minister will lead them to electoral defeat. A leading member of one of the right-wing groups in the party said: “We did not know it was coming. There was no co-ordination with us.” He added he was not surprised MPs were not openly backing Sir Simon. “In politics you have to have a defined destination. But nobody knows where this would lead to. So why would you come out and say anything?” he said. Alongside Mr Clarke’s op-ed was a YouGov opinion poll, the second in as many weeks, this time suggesting a Tory leader with core Conservative policies could beat Labour. Former minister Lord Frost has commissioned a series of polls that have predicted crushing defeats for the Tories Critics were quick to point out both surveys was commissioned by the same group of shadowy Tory donors – known as the Conservative Britain Alliance – led by long-standing Sunak critic Lord Frost.Home secretary James Cleverly said it was “foolish” for Sir Simon to indulge in infighting, warning “all it would do is open the door” for Labour.Former minister Stephen Hammond also told him to shut up unless he wanted the “extinction” of the Tory party.Business minister Kevin Hollinrake admitted that “panic” in the Tory ranks was behind the move, telling Times Radio: “Of course, some people panic at a difficult time. [But] this is not the overwhelming view of the party.”There was very limited support for Sir Simon’s call. Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, who has previously called for Mr Sunak to go, predicted more letters calling for a leadership challenge would be submitted. Boris-backers the Conservative Democratic Organisation also said “urgent change” was needed. With his attempted rebellion effectively over Sir Simon took to the airwaves to cast himself as a soothsayer. He likened himself to a disliked man shouting “iceberg”, as he appeared to compare the Tories to the Titanic. Simon Clarke was a big backer of Liz Truss Amid the backlash against Sir Simon, Tory MPs also rounded on his allies. Conor Burns, a minister in Ms Truss’s short-lived government, said the former PM and her supporters should “shut up”. One senior Tory MP told The Independent that Sir Simon was “flying a kite that’s already broken” – and they did not expect many of his fellow right-wing Rwanda rebels to join him in his call.Other loyal Conservative MPs largely rallied around the PM. Senior Conservatives said Sir Simon had “lost his senses”. According to one report, one called Sir Simon a “self-indulgent tosser”.Former Tory minister Sir David Davis called his intervention “silly”. And Priti Patel, the right-wing former home secretary, said: “Engaging in facile and divisive self-indulgence only serves our opponents.”Former trade secretary Sir Liam Fox said those attempting to “destabilise the government in an election year should understand the consequences”.Tory minister Andrew Bowie used more choice language when he used a WhatsApp group to tell fellow Tory MPs to “get a f***ing grip”, according to The Times.Senior Tories also lampooned Sir Simon’s attempts. Former minister Tobias Ellwood accused the Truss loyalist of “throwing his teddies in the corner” because “his choice of prime minister is no longer in No 10”.With many MPs unhappy at the party’s ratings in the polls, there is still a risk more MPs will submit no-confidence letters in Mr Sunak to the 1922 committee of backbench MPs.One of the few who backed Sir Simon, Nadine Dorries, suggested that the foreign secretary Lord Cameron should return to Downing Street.Sir Simon with Rishi Sunak during visit to the University of LeedsBut The Independent understands former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, himself thought to be eyeing a leadership bid, does not intend to back Sir Simon. The row follows the most testing week of Mr Sunak’s premiership, in which he managed to stave off a right-wing rebellion on his flagship Rwanda legislation.Sixty conservative MPs signed rebel amendments to Mr Sunak’s legislation, dealing a serious blow to the prime minister’s authority. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailThe UK is “really unsafe” from future pandemic threats, a leading academic has told MPs.Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, director at the Oxford Vaccine Group, said he was concerned that not enough work was being done to research different viruses and bacteria which pose a threat.Sir Andrew, whose team created the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab during the pandemic, said there had already been “decades” of work into coronavirus vaccines before the Covid-19 pandemic struck.But “we are nowhere near the beginning of that starting gun” for other microbes, he told the Science and Technology Committee.We are really unsafe at this moment for future pandemic threats, because we just don’t have that knowledge base that you need to even start the gun as we did in 2020Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, Oxford Vaccine Group“We already knew a lot about coronaviruses and how to make vaccines for them – there had been decades of research on coronavirus vaccines,” Sir Andrew said.“One of the problems that we have is most of those other microbes which are out there which could threaten us, we haven’t done any of that work.“If it were to take 10 or 20 years to do the research and development… we are nowhere near the beginning of that starting gun.“I think that’s one of the areas I see the most concern about… are we doing enough to look at the different families of viruses and bacteria which we already know are a threat but we don’t have enough understanding about?“And that work needs years of investment to try and move it forwards.”He added: “If you think about the defence against something unknown, which is clearly a really important way to think about pandemics, we don’t know when they’re going to happen – we’re pretty sure they will happen again, it might be in a year or it might be in 50 years.“Then you think about other types of defence we have such as military defence… I think the Government’s figures (are) about £45 billion investment in a year into defence – we recognise that we need to do stuff for peacetime, even though hopefully we don’t have to deploy that.“But for pandemics we’re putting a fraction of that, tiny fraction of that into preparedness.What we’ve seen is a whole list of incompetent decisions being madeDr Clive Dix, former UK Vaccine Taskforce chairman“And so for me, we are really unsafe at this moment for future pandemic threats, because we just don’t have that knowledge base that you need to even start the gun as we did in 2020 – and even then it took 11 months to have a vaccine.”Meanwhile the former chairman of the UK Vaccine Taskforce launched a scathing attack on the Government, telling MPs that ministers had “destroyed” almost all the work of the group of experts.Dr Clive Dix, former deputy chair of the taskforce who took over as chair in late 2020, said the UK had not built upon the successes of the taskforce, adding: “The reason the taskforce was formed was because there was no infrastructure to work across industry, academia and government to actually pull together what we did… What I’ve seen since April 2021 is a complete demise of all the activities that made that thing work, literally gone.“What we’ve seen is a whole list of incompetent decisions being made.”He said the Government trumpeted the success of the taskforce and then “destroyed almost everything that was going on”.Dr Dix, who is now chief executive at C4X Discovery, added: “We have less resilience now because a lot of the manufacturers have walked away from the UK because of how badly they were treated in the tail end of the Vaccine Taskforce.”He highlighted how the vaccine deal with French firm Valneva was terminated before the clinical trial results were even published, saying that the decision “nearly put the company on its knees”.Meanwhile Dr Dix criticised the UK for not having a “strong relationship” with British vaccine manufacturer GSK.UK experts in the field of pathogen genomics made a vital contribution to the Covid-19 pandemic response and pathogen genomics remains central to the national and international effort to keep the public safe from many other types of infectious disease threatsDame Jenny Harries, UKHSA Asked whether the right lessons have been learned by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Government, he said: “The lessons were learned by a small group of us that were running the Vaccine Taskforce, and it never really got transported into the current thinking of the Government.”Dr Dix also criticised ministers for putting key recommendations from the Vaccine Taskforce “on the shelf”.The committee also heard from experts behind the Lighthouse Laboratories – set up to aid diagnostics during the Covid-19 pandemic.Professor Dame Anna Dominiczak, chief scientist at Health Scotland who was seconded to the Department of Health and Social Care to take on responsibilities for the Lighthouse Laboratories in 2020, said that putting the Rosalind Franklin Covid Laboratory in Leamington Spa up for sale was a “missed opportunity”.Professor Chris Molloy, chief executive of Medicines Discovery Catapult, who was director of the UK Lighthouse Labs network during the pandemic, said the UK needed to keep potential lab space to “fight the next war”.It comes as the UKHSA published its new Pathogen Genomics Strategy.The five-year plan outlines how the UKHSA intends to “integrate genomics into every aspect of infectious disease control”.UKHSA chief executive Dame Jenny Harries said: “UK experts in the field of pathogen genomics made a vital contribution to the Covid-19 pandemic response and pathogen genomics remains central to the national and international effort to keep the public safe from many other types of infectious disease threats, from tuberculosis to mpox and avian influenza.“We know it will become even more important in the years to come, and our new strategy will ensure that UKHSA continues to be at the forefront of implementing this technology to keep our communities safe, save lives and protect livelihoods.” More

Britain under Tories is ‘longest episode of Eastenders ever,’ says Keir Starmer Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailLabour leader Sir Keir Starmer has claimed Rishi Sunak is being “bullied” by his own MPs and he used PMQs to mock the prime minister after a fresh Tory civil war erupted.Sir Keir said that Mr Sunak was “endlessly” fighting with his own party and that the more “they slag him off behind his back, the louder they cheer in here”.It comes after Liz Truss ally Sir Simon Clarke claimed that the Conservative Party could face “extinction” unless the prime minister resigns.Sir Simon, who served in the Treasury under Mr Sunak, made the intervention in the Daily Telegraph to urge his colleagues to sack the PM ahead of the looming general election, arguing that he “has sadly gone from asset to anchor”.Tory MPs have rounded on Sir Simon’s attempted coup, branding his move against Mr Sunak as “foolish” and “facile” – while another called him a “self-indulgent tosser”. A senior Conservative MP told The Independent that Sir Simon was “flying a kite that’s already broken” and that they did not expect fellow right-wingers to join his rebellion.Show latest update 1706107143Simon Clarke ‘wasting everyone’s time’, says Sunak allySenior Sunak allies said Sir Simon Clarke’s push against the PM had already fizzled out, with no-one new on the right calling for Sunak to be replaced, reports Political Correspondent Adam Forrest.One senior figure told The Independent: “Clarke is wasting everyone’s time. It’s going nowhere.” Another called Sir Simon was an “outlier”, saying they were confident he was not be followed by other MPs on the right.Adam Forrest, Political Correspondent24 January 2024 14:391706106023No 10: Simon Clarke is ‘one MP’No 10 described Sir Simon as “one MP” who was “in a different place to some other MPs”, reports Politics and Whitehall Editor Kate Devlin.However, Downing Street would not be drawn on whether or not they thought he was a ‘lone wolf’.But they said his intervention would not “distract us” Mr Sunak from getting on with “what matters to people”.Kate Devlin, Politics and Whitehall Editor24 January 2024 14:201706104823Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer trade personal insults during bruising PMQsRishi Sunak is being “bullied” by Tory MPs as they take part in the “longest episode of EastEnders ever put to film”, according to Sir Keir Starmer.The Prime Minister countered by branding Labour leader Sir Keir a “human weathervane” and attacked his work as a lawyer as the pair traded personal insults in the House of Commons.Mr Sunak arrived in the chamber to loud cheers from his MPs, just hours after former Cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke called for him to be replaced as leader to avoid a Conservative “massacre” at the general election.Richard Wheeler reports:Tara Cobham24 January 2024 14:001706103623Sir Simon is ‘in a different place to other MPs and won’t distract us’, says Downing StSir Simon Clarke is “in a different place to some other MPs” and his intervention “won’t distract us from getting on with what matters to people”, Downing Street said.The Prime Minister’s press secretary said: “The PM is just focused on the job, getting on with the key priorities that he’s set out for the country and that’s where he’s spending his time at the moment.”Asked whether Rishi Sunak would be talking with Sir Simon in the wake of his Telegraph op-ed, she said she would “never get into conversations between the Prime Minister and colleagues.”Number 10 insisted the Conservatives are united on the “big issues” such as lowering tax where it is responsible to do so, describing Sir Simon as a “known critic.”Asked whether Mr Sunak was worried about a wider revolt, she said: This is one MP. All I would say is Simon Clarke has set out his view in a paper today.“We recognise that he’s in a different place to some other MPs that have come out today. He’s entitled to his view but that won’t distract us from getting on with what matters to people.”Tara Cobham24 January 2024 13:401706102316No 10 refuses to deny Sunak has plans to bring back Anderson as Tory deputy chairDowning Street has refused to deny Rishi Sunak has plans to bring Lee Anderson back as Tory deputy chairman, saying Number 10 has a “lot of time” for him despite his resignation over the Rwanda Bill.Asked whether the prime minister would consider giving Mr Anderson his job back after he reportedly voiced regret over his abstention, Mr Sunak’s press secretary said it was “the PM’s prerogative to choose and when” who gets which jobs.“I think we can say that we have a lot of time for Lee. He made it clear that he had concerns but actually he really supports getting this deterrent up and running so it’s good to see him talking about that today,” she said.Mr Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith both quit as Conservative Party deputy chairs after siding with right-wing Tory MPs in backing the rebel amendments to Mr Sunak’s Rwanda bill. More