Markus Andrews

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSuburban women aged over 60 who voted for the Conservative Party in 2019 will be decisive for Rishi Sunak at the next general election, according to a poll.Undecided older-than-average females were part of the coalition of voters that gave Boris Johnson a majority in 2019, but that has now fragmented, leaving the Conservatives struggling to improve their support in the country, polling published on Friday by the think tank More In Common suggests. While several voting groups appear to have switched directly from the Conservatives to Labour, others have opted for Reform UK.But a larger proportion currently say they do not know how they will vote. Of this group, which makes up around 6 per cent of voters, most are female, older than average and likely to live in towns or suburbs, said Luke Tryl, More In Common’s UK director.Mr Tryl said: “Whilst winning back this group won’t be enough to keep the Conservatives in power… they will determine the size of any likely Labour victory, from a hung parliament to a landslide.”More In Common’s analysis, based on polling of more than 3,000 British adults in the last week of January, also suggests that the next election will be based on policy rather than personality, with neither of the two main party leaders proving a draw for voters.Older female voters are the key for Sunak, says think tank Mr Tryl said: “As this in-depth analysis suggests, the parties’ fortunes are likely to be shaped by a series of factors that sit underneath headline voting intention.“That includes the dominance of the cost of living, the rising salience of crime, what the unusually large number of undecided female voters who voted Tory in 2019, ultimately decide to do and to what extent third-party voters for the Greens, Liberal Democrats or Reform UK decide to vote tactically.”The cost of living remains a key concern, listed as the number one issue by every voter group despite the fall in inflation over the past year, while concerns about crime and the NHS were particularly prevalent with swing voters.Mr Tryl also warned that the Conservatives were unlikely to win back swing voters with a platform of tax cuts and “culture war issues”.He said those who had switched to supporting Labour were more likely to want investment in public services rather than tax cuts, while subjects such as gender identity and leaving the European Convention on Human Rights were of only “minority appeal”.The PM should concentrate on policy rather than personalities, says study One possible tax cut that did prove popular, however, was a reduction in council tax, with 43 per cent of undecided former Conservative voters supporting a reduction in the levy, compared to 29 per cent saying the same about income tax.Mr Tryl also suggested it was unlikely that the Conservatives would be able to peel large numbers of supporters away from Reform UK, with only a quarter saying they would consider backing the government if Reform stood down and many “anti-system” voters saying they would either stay at home or cast another protest vote if Richard Tice’s party were not an option.But the analysis was not universally positive for Labour, either, with Mr Tryl noting that the party’s pledge to invest £28bn a year in green projects had been its second most popular proposal behind scrapping tax breaks for non-doms.He said: “Labour risks reinforcing the charge they are more of the same by having ditched one of their most popular policies with their likely voters.”Polling suggested that while a quarter of those switching from the Conservatives to Labour said they had no hesitation about voting for Sir Keir Starmer’s party, some 20 per cent said they were still concerned Labour would be no better at handling the cost of living crisis.Mr Tryl also warned that the main “glue” holding the coalition of potential Labour voters together was a desire to get the Conservatives out of office, which could cause problems for any future Labour government.He said: “Given the breadth of the Labour coalition, I struggle to see the glue that keeps them together [holding] when things get hard in government.” More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailNearly 18 months ago, Liz Truss was the UK Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party, with the authority to direct the actions of Her Majesty’s Government and even to unleash the United Kingdom’s store of nuclear-tipped Trident missiles.But on Thursday, standing before a half-empty ballroom at a Washington DC-area hotel and convention centre, she cut a far less impressive figure.Ms Truss is appearing at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), an annual right-wing confab once home to conservative and libertarian stalwarts such as Ronald Reagan and Mitt Romney but which, in recent years, has morphed into a Trumpian pep rally.To that end, she made her CPAC debut at a hastily-arranged “international summit” alongside Nigel Farage, the ex-UKIP MEP and former Brexit Party leader who has spent more and more of his time since Brexit focused on boosting Donald Trump’s effort to return to the White House.Mr Farage has long been a darling of the American far-right and a CPAC regular. But Ms Truss’ appearance at the gathering appears part of a new offensive meant to give her a base of support in the US and new allies in the populist, antidemocratic milieu inhabited by Mr Trump, Mr Farage, and other authoritarian-friendly gadflies such as ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon.To that end, she peppered her remarks on Wednesday — and a second speech in the main CPAC ballroom on Thursday — with attacks on unelected civil servants and non-governmental agencies who she blamed for her time in Number 10 coming to a disastrous end after just 49 days. (She was infamously outlasted by a lettuce.)She told attendees that the “most almighty backlash” she faced after the catastrophic reaction to her 2022 mini-budget – which sent the pound into a nose dive and sparked a crash in the markets – came both from the “usual suspects” in both media and the corporate world, as well as government, the Office of Budget Responsibility and the Bank of England.Ms Truss also levelled partisan attacks on the sitting American president, accusing Mr Biden of being “asleep at the wheel” and “projecting weakness” from the White House, while also accusing him of playing a part in her ouster and having “intervened to have a go at my policies”.“Can you imagine being attacked on your economic policies by the inventor of Bidenomics? Talk about offensive,” she said.Her comments about Mr Bide, which parroted the right-wing talking points of the string of MAGA speakers at the event, drew some applause – while her diatribes about the British civil service fell flat.Whether Ms Truss’ attempts to remake herself as a right-wing celebrity will succeed is anyone’s guess.When The Independent sought to survey CPAC attendees on their reactions to her remarks, Americans appeared negative – or worse, indifferent – towards the former PM.One MAGA hat-wearing attendee — who declined to give his name — called her a “secret globalist” and “bad news,” citing her prior opposition to Brexit.“She was against it and she flipped,” he said, before walking quickly away.Another Mr Trump fan wearing a student ticket to the conference and the obligatory red hat told The Independent Ms Truss was “a loser” and said he wasn’t sure why she was there.But Jamile Davies, an international attendee who had travelled all the way from Wales, thought the former prime minister had made a good impression on the American crowd.“I do believe that she has all the right words and the good intentions. And she was not given the opportunity to act on them or … much support from the Conservative Party,” she said, adding that Ms Truss most likely came to the US because “the British public’s just fed up of good words and very little actions”.Ms Truss’ attacks on the president even drew some praise from the conference’s lead organiser, American Conservative Union chair Matt Schlapp.Mr Schlapp told The Independent he saw nothing untoward in the former prime minister’s behaviour, calling it “standard procedure” when pressed on whether he’d object to attacks on a Republican president by Sir Keir Starmer or another high-profile Labour MP. He also implied the criticism was justified because President Biden had not had an in-person meeting with Ms Truss during her short time in Number 10.“A lot of these politicians, they come here and they get featured on places like CNN, when they’re negative, so no, I’m not clutching my pearls over the fact that we have a former Prime Minister of Great Britain who comes to CPAC, shows these people great respect, and yes, has criticisms of the current president United States, who by the way she worked with, and I don’t think ever had a meeting with her,” he said. “So if she has some criticisms of Joe Biden, I think it’s warranted — I’m okay with it”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Britain and its former partners in the European Union have struck a deal to cooperate more on tackling illegal migration, in the latest sign of a thawing in relations between the two sides following Brexit.The British government said in a statement Friday that U.K. border agencies and Frontex, the EU’s border and coast guard agency, will be able to access each other’s intelligence to secure borders and tackle organized immigration crime. There will also be joint training, deployments of staff from one side to the other, and collaboration on research and development on new technologies. The agreement, which will be signed later in London, doesn’t include any bilateral returns agreement, which means neither side will be obliged to to take any asylum-seekers under burden-sharing arrangements agreed on between the EU’s 27 member states. “Organized immigration crime and people smuggling are global challenges that require shared solutions and ambitions,” U.K. Home Secretary James Cleverly said.“Our landmark working arrangement between the U.K. and Frontex is another crucial step in tackling illegal migration, securing our borders and stopping the boats,” he added.Relations between the two sides on an array of issues has been improving in the past few months, having been severely tested during the drawn-out divorce negotiations that followed Britain’s 2016 vote to leave the EU. The split became final in early 2021 with the agreement of a bare-bones trade and cooperation deal, but relations grew even more testy under strongly pro-Brexit U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson.Rishi Sunak, the current prime minister who took the helm in October 2022, has quietly worked to improve the United Kingdom’s relationship with its European neighbors, though trade friction and deep-rooted mistrust still linger. Last year, for example, he agreed that Britain would rejoin the EU’s $100 billion science-sharing program Horizon Europe.Sunak has made cutting illegal immigration one of the main pillars of his leadership. More than 29,000 people arrived in the U.K. in small boats in 2023, having made the often treacherous journey across the English Channel. Though that was down from nearly 46,000 the year before, Sunak has promised to “stop the boats,” leaving him open to charges that he has failed to achieve one of his main objectives before a general election this year, the date of which he will decide. Opinion polls show that Sunak’s Conservatives are trailing far behind the main opposition Labour Party, and losing support to a new hard-right political party, which is focusing on immigration. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailUnder-25s playing online slot games are to be limited to £2 a spin from September under new measures to protect people from harmful gambling, the Government has announced.Adults aged 25 and over will face a £5 stake limit “to counter the increased risk of significant harm and life-changing losses” from online slots, the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) said.There is currently no limit on the amount that gamblers can stake on online slots.In 2019 the Government imposed a limit on stakes on the equivalent machines in betting shops – called fixed-odds betting terminals – from £100 to £2.Although millions of people gamble safely every single day, the evidence shows that there is a significantly higher problem gambling rate for online slot gamesStuart Andrew, gambling ministerThe DCMS described the new limits as a “landmark moment” for the regulation of online gambling.Easily accessible online slot games are one of the most addictive forms of gambling, and can be associated with large losses, long sessions, and binge play, according to evidence presented during a consultation over the proposals contained in the Government’s gambling White Paper.Evidence from the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities showed that young adults could be particularly vulnerable to gambling-related harm, with under-25s having the highest average problem gambling score of any age group.NHS survey figures also showed a problem gambling rate of 8.7% for online gambling on slots, casino or bingo games – one of the highest rates across gambling activities.Young adults had lower disposable income, ongoing neurological development impacting risk perception and common life stage factors such as managing money for the first time, the DCMS said.Evidence also pointed to a stronger link between gambling-related harm and suicide among young adults.Our research shows a concerning trend with this age group experiencing an increase in harm arising from gambling and online slots are very high-risk productsZoe Osmond, GambleAwareGambling minister Stuart Andrew said: “Although millions of people gamble safely every single day, the evidence shows that there is a significantly higher problem gambling rate for online slot games.“We also know that young adults can be more vulnerable when it comes to gambling-related harms, which is why we committed to addressing both of these issues in our White Paper.“The growing popularity of online gambling is clear to see, so this announcement will level the playing field with the land-based sector and is the next step in a host of measures being introduced this year that will protect people from gambling harms.”Zoe Osmond, chief executive of gambling charity GambleAware, said: “We welcome the Government’s announcement to introduce lower online stake limits for under-25s as an important mechanism to protect young people.“Our research shows a concerning trend with this age group experiencing an increase in harm arising from gambling and online slots are very high-risk products.“As we continue our work to tackle this growing public health issue, we will collaborate with the Government and others across the gambling harms sector to ensure there are no missed opportunities when it comes to the introduction of robust preventative measures, including new regulations such as these.”The £2 limit for under-25s is a step in the right direction, but £5 for over-25s is another missed opportunity to stop the harm to millions and the devastation caused by gambling suicidesCharles Ritchie, Gambling with LivesHowever other campaigners described the limits as a “missed opportunity” after calling for a maximum of £2 or less across the board.Gambling with Lives co-founder Charles Ritchie said: “The £2 limit for under-25s is a step in the right direction, but £5 for over-25s is another missed opportunity to stop the harm to millions and the devastation caused by gambling suicides.“Stake limits offer some reduction in harm but the products are still highly addictive, so we also need much slower spin speeds, affordability checks, and proper public health information about the dangers.”The limits will come into force in September following secondary legislation, with a six-week transition period for operators to become compliant with the general £5 stake limit rules, followed by a further six weeks for the development of any necessary technical solutions to ensure operators are fully compliant with the lower stake limit of £2 for younger adults.The DCMS said responses to the wider White Paper measures would be published “soon”. More

Liz Truss hit out at Joe Biden for “intervening” in her economic policies during her short time in 10 Downing Street.Speaking at CPAC in Washington DC on Thursday, 22 February, the former prime minister defended her controversial tax-cutting plans from Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-budget which prompted the pound crashing to an all-time low against the dollar.”I’m not saying I’m a perfect person or I did everything exactly right, but I faced the most almighty backlash … from people that were meant to work for the government,” she said.”Even president Biden intervened to have a go at my policies. Now can you imagine being attacked on your economic policies by the inventor of Bidenomics?” More

SNP and Conservative MPs walk out of the Commons over the speaker’s handling of the Gaza voteSign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailPrime minister Rishi Sunak has branded Sir Lindsay Hoyle’s handling of the Gaza ceasefire vote “very concerning”, but said the Commons Speaker was “reflecting on what happened”.Mr Sunak warned that parliamentarians should never be intimidated by “extremists” after dozens of Conservative and SNP MPs signed a no-confidence motion in Sir Lindsay.The speaker has apologised to the SNP after the House of Commons descended into chaos. He broke with convention on Wednesday to allow a vote on Labour’s Gaza ceasefire amendment to an SNP motion calling for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza and Israel. The amendment was later passed without vote.He said: “I regret it. I apologise to the SNP… I apologise and I apologise to the House. I made a mistake. We do make mistakes. I own up to mine.“I have a duty of care, and I say that, and if my mistake is looking after members I am guilty.”Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt blamed the Labour Party for the chaotic scenes.Show latest update 1708652700Anger as Northern Ireland excluded from Post Office lawNorthern Ireland’s justice minister says she is deeply disappointed that legislation to exonerate subpostmasters wronged in the Horizon scandal excludes the region.Naomi Long said she would urgently review options to provide an alternative remedy for subpostmasters in Northern Ireland.Details of blanket legislation to exonerate subpostmasters convicted in England and Wales was published on Thursday after Rishi Sunak earlier this year said they were victims of “one of the greatest miscarriages of justice in our nation’s history”.Last month, Post Office minister Kevin Hollinrake told MPs that while justice is a devolved issue in Northern Ireland, the Government wanted to see a consistent approach across the UK.However, Ms Long criticised the Westminster Government after it failed to include Northern Ireland in its legislation.Jane Dalton23 February 2024 01:451708648200Victims of Post Office Horizon scandal to have names cleared by new lawJane Dalton23 February 2024 00:301708643723Editorial: Now the war in Gaza is poisoning British politics Some of the arguments about Gaza – in parliament, online, in demonstrations – twist the motives and policies of opponents grotesquely: More

Sir Keir Starmer said he did not threaten Sir Lindsay Hoyle “in any way” to ensure Labour got its way on a vote on Gaza on Wednesday night (21 February).The Labour leader insisted he “simply urged to ensure we have the broadest possible debate” as he spoke to reporters the following day.Sir Linsday has faced calls to resign after taking an exceptional decision to allow multiple Commons votes on the Israel-Hamas conflict.Sir Keir has been accused by Penny Mordaunt of using the Speaker for political gain over the vote.The Commons leader accused him of putting “the interests of the Labour party before the interests of the British people”. More

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster emailSir Lindsay Hoyle has apologised twice to MPs following an extraordinary fallout over the Commons Gaza debate on Wednesday.Tory and SNP MPs stormed out of the chamber after Sir Lindsay broke with convention to allow a vote on Labour’s Gaza ceasefire amendment.The simmering row centres on his decision to select Labour’s bid to amend an SNP motion calling for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza and Israel, which was later passed without a division.The SNP had opted to use one of its allocated opposition day debates to press for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all hostages held by Hamas and “an end to the collective punishment of the Palestinian people”.Labour responded by tabling an amendment to the motion in addition to the government’s. It was then Sir Lindsay’s decision to select the party’s amendment for a vote and debate that angered many MPs.The SNP were angry as they felt their opposition day had been hijacked by the speaker – but also because they had hoped to expose divisions over Gaza within the Labour Party.The chaos continued into Thursday, when Sir Keir Starmer was forced to deny he had threatened Sir Lindsay and SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn called for a vote of no confidence in the speaker.So what actually happened in the Commons on Wednesday? And why are the SNP and Tories so outraged?What’s next for Sir Lindsay and the amendment that was agreed?If you have a question, submit it now here, or when I join you live at 11am on Friday 23 January for the “Ask Me Anything” event.Register to submit your question in the comments box under this article. If you’re not already a member, click “sign up” in the comments section to leave your question. For a full guide on how to comment click here.Don’t worry if you can’t see your question – they may be hidden until I join the conversation to answer them. Then join us live on this page as I tackle as many questions as I can. More