Elections

Los sondeos sesgados y los mercados de apuestas anónimas están aumentando las expectativas de los republicanos. Donald Trump podría utilizar esto para impugnar el resultado.El torrente de encuestas empezó a llegar hace unas semanas, una tras otra, la mayoría mostrando una victoria de Donald Trump.Destacaban entre los cientos de otras encuestas que indicaban un empate en las elecciones presidenciales. Pero tenían algo en común: habían sido encargadas por grupos de derecha con un gran interés en promover la fuerza republicana.Estas encuestas han tenido un impacto marginal, si es que han tenido alguno, en los promedios de las encuestas, que o bien no incluyen las encuestas partidistas o les dan poca importancia. Sin embargo, hay quien sostiene que el verdadero propósito de las encuestas partidistas, junto con otras métricas que fijan expectativas, como los mercados de apuestas políticas, está dirigido a un objetivo totalmente distinto: construir una narrativa de impulso imparable para Trump.Las encuestas partidistas parecen centradas en elevar el entusiasmo republicano antes de las elecciones y —lo que quizá sea más importante— en cimentar la idea de que la única forma de que Trump pierda frente a la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris es que las elecciones estén amañadas. Las encuestas que prometen una victoria republicana, según esta teoría, podrían considerarse evidencias de fraude si esa victoria no se produce.“Está claro que los republicanos están colocando estratégicamente las encuestas en el entorno informativo para intentar crear la percepción de que Trump es más fuerte”, dijo Joshua Dyck, quien dirige el Centro de Opinión Pública de la Universidad de Massachusetts en Lowell. “Su incentivo no es necesariamente acertar la respuesta”.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Incluso si es improbable que el expresidente gane en estos estados, ofrecen la posibilidad de que nuevas audiencias aporten más votos republicanos al recuento popular.El jueves, el expresidente Donald Trump utilizó uno de sus últimos viajes antes de las elecciones para visitar Nuevo México, al tiempo que tiene un viaje de fin de semana programado para Virginia.Los dos estados han votado mayoritariamente por el candidato demócrata durante las últimas elecciones presidenciales. Entonces, ¿por qué Trump pasa tiempo allí?En un comunicado, Karoline Leavitt, una portavoz de Trump, dijo que el expresidente estaba “a la ofensiva en estados históricamente demócratas como Nuevo México y Virginia”, asegurando que Kamala Harris “sigue a la defensiva, destinando más recursos para captar el voto en las comunidades negras y enviando a Bill Clinton a Nuevo Hampshire”.Pero hay otras razones para las visitas.Algunos en el equipo de Trump creen que los dos estados representan oportunidades de repunte para el candidato republicano si hay un auge de la participación en todo el país para él. Así que no hay razón, en su opinión, para no invertir algo de tiempo allí. Especialmente en Nuevo México, existe la sensación de que el arco de apoyo que el equipo de Trump cree estar viendo en la votación anticipada y en las encuestas podría ayudarle en el recuento de votos en ese estado.El equipo de Trump ha estado trabajando para aumentar su apoyo en el recuento del voto popular y los mítines en lugares como California, Nueva York y Nueva Jersey han funcionado hacia ese objetivo. Estos nuevos mítines podrían hacer lo mismo.Considerando que sus actos son casi exclusivamente mítines a gran escala, Trump tiene un límite en la cantidad de veces que puede volver a visitar algunos de los estados más disputados. En Georgia, cientos de asistentes a uno de sus mítines empezaron a marcharse mucho antes de que este terminara.Nuevo México y Virginia son territorio nuevo, donde más gente probablemente no haya visto antes a Trump en un mitin. Eso ofrece al equipo de Trump la garantía de conseguir grandes multitudes. Y en una carrera nacionalizada, donde los mítines se emiten por televisión y son cubiertos por los medios locales, las imágenes lucen mejor. More

Last week, an Instagram account with fewer than 3,500 followers published a video of a Florida woman named Deborah Dorbert. She described carrying a baby diagnosed with Potter syndrome, a fatal condition, to full term after being denied an abortion. Her son lived for 94 minutes, she said in the video.The next morning, the clip debuted to hundreds of thousands of viewers on MSNBC’s popular weekday show “Morning Joe.”Few videos have their reach jump by an order of that magnitude — fewer still on a charged topic like abortion.But this wasn’t any Instagram account. It was a creation of Cecile Richards.Ms. Richards, the former president of Planned Parenthood — and perhaps the country’s most famous abortion rights activist — is a co-founder of a new project called Abortion in America.It is an attempt, mostly through accounts on Instagram and TikTok, like the one that published Ms. Dorbert’s video, to bring personal stories of state bans and restrictions to broad audiences. It also represents a fight for attention in a chaotic election season, in which abortion access has moved up and down the ranks of voter concerns.The problem Ms. Richards and her co-founders, Lauren Peterson and Kaitlyn Joshua, set out to solve is this: Journalists are writing about abortion, widely and deeply, but the work does not always resonate, or “stay alive more than a day or a week,” Ms. Richards said in an interview.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Residents say Mr. Musk’s data center for artificial intelligence is compounding their pollution burden and adding stress on the local electrical grid.Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is building what he says will be the world’s largest supercomputer. Its electricity needs will rival those of 100,000 homes.The supercomputer’s neighbors in southwest Memphis have a problem with that.The project, part of Mr. Musk’s xAI artificial intelligence business, sits in an old manufacturing plant on more than 550 acres. Before beginning operations there in July, xAI rolled in flatbed trucks loaded with almost 20 mobile power plants, fueled by natural gas, to help meet its electricity demands.Residents of the heavily industrial community — already home to an oil refinery, a steel mill and chemical plants — see no upside. They contend that Mr. Musk’s project has made pollution worse in an area already enveloped in smog.“We’re getting more and more days a year where it is unhealthy for us to go outside,” said KeShaun Pearson, president of Memphis Community Against Pollution and a lifelong resident of the area near the xAI site.The xAI supercomputer center in Memphis is being built at the site of a former appliance factory.Whitten Sabbatini for The New York TimesThe center is to be used to train artificial intelligence models on thousands of powerful computer servers.Whitten Sabbatini for The New York TimesSo far, xAI is using the Memphis facility to develop its artificial intelligence models on a network of thousands of high-powered computer servers. Some of its models are trained on data from Mr. Musk’s social media platform, X.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Amy Watson will helm the storied company as it grapples with the sudden departure of its previous artistic director and accusations of abuse at its school.For months, the Royal Danish Ballet, one of the world’s premier dance troupes, has been in turmoil. Accusations of abuse have shaken its 253-year-old school. Then, last week, the company said its star artistic director, Nikolaj Hübbe, was abruptly resigning after 16 years.Now the Royal Danish Ballet hopes to turn the page on those troubles. The company announced on Thursday that Amy Watson, a California-born dancer who joined the troupe in 2000, would serve as its next artistic director.“This theater gave me a second homeland and a wonderful career that I could have never dreamed of,” said Watson, 43. “I want to serve in the highest capacity for the theater and to give back.”Watson, whose tenure begins on Friday, succeeds Hübbe, 57, a Copenhagen native who has been a fixture at the troupe for years. He started training at its school when he was 10 and was a principal dancer by age 20. He later was an acclaimed principal dancer at New York City Ballet for 16 years.Since 2008, Hübbe has run the company, famous for its rich choreographic legacy rooted in the repertory of the 19th-century Danish master August Bournonville. Hübbe oversaw new productions of classics like “Swan Lake” and “Giselle,” and expanded the company’s range, bringing in works by living choreographers, including Christopher Wheeldon, Alexei Ratmansky, Yuri Possokhov and Wayne McGregor. He also worked to attract new audiences with more casual and intimate offerings.During his tenure, the company faced difficulties, including budget cuts, union fights and allegations of drug abuse in the company. Last year, the organization began an inquiry into conditions at its school amid reports that children had experienced psychological and physical abuse. Some former students said they had developed eating disorders after being told at a young age that they were too heavy to dance.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

Green Bay, Wis.Doug Mills/The New York TimesRaleigh, N.C.Kenny Holston/The New York TimesMadison, Wis. Jim Vondruska for The New York Times Green Bay, Wis.Doug Mills/The New York Times📌 Lo más recienteEl expresidente Donald Trump y la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris recorrerán hoy el suroeste en una de sus últimas giras de campaña en la región antes del día de las elecciones. Tras perseguirse mutuamente desde Carolina del Norte hasta Wisconsin ayer, ambos celebran hoy mítines en Arizona y Nevada: Phoenix, Reno y Las Vegas para Harris; y a las afueras de Las Vegas y Phoenix para Trump, que también tiene previsto hacer una parada en Albuquerque, en tradicionalmente demócrata Nuevo México.Sus compañeros de papeleta también estarán en campaña. JD Vance, senador por Ohio, celebrará una asamblea pública enfocada en los votantes más jóvenes en la Universidad de High Point, en Carolina del Norte. Tim Walz, gobernador de Minnesota, hará campaña en Erie, Pensilvania.Faltan cinco días para la jornada electoral.Esto es lo que hay que saber:Actualizaciones de los reporterosNicky Jam retira su apoyo a Trump¿Son legales los selfis electorales?¿Cuándo habrá resultados para presidente?Más para ponerse al díaActualizaciones de los reporterosEn Michigan, un estado clave donde 5,5 millones de personas votaron en las últimas elecciones presidenciales, ya se han entregado casi 1,8 millones de votos en ausencia, según funcionarios electorales. Durante los primeros cinco días de votación anticipada en persona en la mayoría de las ciudades y pueblos, más de 100.000 personas acudieron a las urnas cada día. Donald Trump, el entonces presidente, perdió el estado ante Joseph Biden por menos de 160.000 votos en 2020, y las encuestas muestran una carrera increíblemente reñida entre Trump y la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris.El líder de Hungría cruza los dedos por TrumpViktor Orbán, primer ministro de Hungría y aliado de Donald Trump, muy criticado por sus ataques a las normas democráticas, escribió el jueves en X que acababa de hablar por teléfono con el expresidente. “Le deseé la mejor de las suertes para el próximo martes”, escribió. “Solo faltan cinco días. Crucemos los dedos”.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

One son couldn’t prevent his father from giving about $1 million in savings to con artists, including one posing as a female wrestling star. The two became estranged.When Chris Mancinelli walked into his father’s home for the first time after the 79-year-old man died last summer, he stopped to look at family photos displayed on the refrigerator door. Near a crayon drawing spelling out “grandpa” in rainbow colors were photos of his father’s three granddaughters at a swimming pool.But one image jumped out: a photo of Alexa Bliss, a professional wrestling personality.Mr. Mancinelli’s father, Alfred, was completely smitten with the star — or at least with the con artist impersonating her. He was convinced he was in a romantic relationship with Ms. Bliss, leading him to give up about $1 million in retirement savings (and his granddaughter’s college fund) to the impostor and a varied cast of online fraudsters he interacted with over several years.When Mr. Mancinelli tried to intervene, moving his father’s last $100,000 to a safe account, Alfred sued him — his loyalty was to “Lexi.”“There was nothing we could do to convince him,” said Mr. Mancinelli, 47, a chemical engineer in Collegeville, Pa. An elder care specialist deemed Alfred “really sharp,” he said, but lacking purpose.Mr. Mancinelli and others who have tried to awaken their loved ones from this trance often feel powerless, even after they’ve done everything to shatter the fiction and protect their assets. They say it’s as if their parent had been brainwashed into a cult.In some ways, they were: These victims were slowly groomed by con artists posing as love interests, investment advisers or government officials, among others. Once ensconced inside this bubble, they are unable or unwilling to acknowledge that they have become victims. Even when their own children are warning them of the con.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

More from our inbox:Michelle Obama’s Plea to American MenAn Ex-N.F.L. Player, on Marijuana ReformBipartisan Action Needed to Support Our Children Rob VargasTo the Editor:Re “These Voters Aren’t Exactly Undecided. They’re Cringing,” by Megan K. Stack (Opinion guest essay, Oct. 20):I am struck by undecided voters who are still, at this point, paralyzed by the feeling that neither of the candidates are “good” options, or that they don’t “like” either choice.To those struggling to vote outside their party affiliation, or to vote at all: The cognitive dissonance you feel is uncomfortable, yes, but consider who benefits most from the resulting inaction. It’s not the voter, it’s individuals and groups who use political power and tribalism for their own gain.This election is not a sporting event, it is real life, and we owe it to ourselves and to each other to use our hard-won right to vote thoughtfully, no matter how uncomfortable it is.Natasha Thapar-OlmosLos AngelesThe writer is a licensed psychologist and a professor at Pepperdine University.To the Editor:Re “Battle Is Fierce for Sliver of Pie: Undecided Votes” (front page, Oct. 22):Women can save our country, and I believe they will. They know what is at stake — not only free choice regarding their bodies but also a democracy that celebrates the diversity of its citizens.As the online summary said of the undecided voters: “Both campaigns are digging through troves of data to find these crucial Americans. They both think many are younger, Black or Latino. The Harris team is also eyeing white, college-educated women.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More