UK Politics

Economists have warned Labour they face a number of difficult choices in the upcoming Budget, with chancellor Rachel Reeves already indicating that more tax rises and spending cuts can be expected.The government may need to find at least £22bn at the fiscal event on 26 November, recent research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) indicated, with speculation about the chancellor’s options mounting.Ms Reeves has said she remains committed to Labour’s manifesto commitment not to raise taxes on ‘working people,’ meaning no increase to the headline rate of income tax, national insurance, or VAT.With these three largest revenue streams ruled out, the Treasury must now look at smaller tweaks to the tax system to raise the funds it needs. This was recently referred to as a “scrabble bag” by tax expert Dan Neidle to the cross-party Treasury Committee.Ms Reeves has said she remains committed to Labour’s manifesto commitment not to raise taxes on ‘working people,’ (PA) More

Labour is in “severe trouble” in Wales, polling expert Sir John Curtice has warned, after the party suffered a brutal defeat in a by-election in its heartlands. Plaid Cymru snatched the traditionally Labour seat of Caerphilly away from Sir Keir Starmer’s party despite a surge in the Reform UK vote overnight on Friday. The result, which saw Labour come third, marks the first time the party has lost a vote in the former mining town in more than a century.Labour has run the Welsh parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999 and Caerphilly has been one of its strongholds.But opposition parties hoping to form the next Welsh government have run fierce campaigns in the South Wales constituency, with many seeing this week’s by-election as a bellwether for the Senedd election next May.Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Sir John said: “Labour’s share of the vote was just 11 per cent. It fell by 35 points. That’s the biggest drop that Labour have ever suffered in a by-election in Wales. Labour are in severe trouble in Wales.” He added: “It does suggest that Plaid are now well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister.“Reform will be disappointed at coming second with 36 per cent but I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.”Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle celebrates after being declared winner More

Voters in Ireland are going to the polls Friday to elect one of two women as their new president for the next seven years, a largely ceremonial role in the European Union member country.Catherine Connolly, a left-wing independent lawmaker who has the backing of Sinn Féin and is known for her strong stance against Israel, is widely seen as the leading candidate to become the head of state. The latest polls show she holds a significant lead with about 40% of support from voters, ahead of the 20% to 25% for her rival Heather Humphreys, representing center-right party Fine Gael.The two are the only contenders after others — including musician Bob Geldof and the former mixed martial arts champion Conor McGregor — failed to receive enough backing for a nomination.The winner will succeed Michael D. Higgins, who has been president since 2011, having served the maximum two seven-year terms.Connolly and Humphreys faced off against each other as they made their final pitch to voters on Tuesday in a presidential TV debate.Here’s what to know about the election: Parties on the left back Connolly Connolly, 68, is a former barrister who has been an independent lawmaker since 2016. She has drawn criticism for her views on Palestinians and the militant Hamas group, among other issues.She was previously seen as an unlikely presidential candidate, but became a front-runner after a third candidate, Jim Gavin of the party Fianna Fail, dropped out of the race in early October after details of a financial scandal emerged. Gavin’s name remains on the ballot paper though he stopped campaigning.In September, Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheál Martin criticized Connolly’s comments that called Hamas “part of the fabric of the Palestinian people,” saying she appeared reluctant to condemn the militant group’s actions in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel that ignited the two-year Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. She later maintained that she “utterly condemned” Hamas’ actions, while also criticizing Israel for carrying out what she said was a genocide in Gaza.Opponents have said she risked alienating Ireland’s allies after she warned about the EU’s growing “militarization.” Some have also questioned her past role as a lawyer representing banks that repossessed people’s homes.Connolly has garnered endorsements from left-leaning parties, including Sinn Féin, the Labour Party and the Social Democrats.She said this week she “will be an absolutely independent president with an independent mind.” Her campaign website says she “wants to be a president for all the people, especially for those often excluded and silenced” and a “voice for equality and justice.”Connolly began her political career when she was elected as a local political representative on the Galway City Council in 1999. Five years later, she was elected mayor of the city of Galway. Humphreys stresses centrist approach Humphreys, 64, has been in government for more than a decade, formerly serving in several Cabinet positions where she oversaw arts and heritage, business and rural development.She was first elected as a local politician in 2004 and was a member of parliament from 2011 until 2024. She has stressed that she is a pro-business, pro-EU candidate and would strive for unity and “build bridges” with communities in Northern Ireland.“I’m a center-ground person. I’m a middle-of-the-road person, like most Irish people,” she said in this week’s final presidential debate.While Humphreys underlined her years of experience in government, Connolly criticized her as a representation of “more of the same,” saying she is aligned with the outlook of recent governments.Despite receiving endorsements from Martin and three former deputy premiers, Humphreys is widely expected to lose to Connolly. The president’s role The president appoints the prime minister, called the Taoiseach, after a vote in parliament, as well as other government officials and judges on the government’s advice.The president also signs into law bills passed by lawmakers, and can call fresh elections if the prime minister no longer has the support of lawmakers.While the role does not have the power to shape laws or policies, past presidents have been known to air their views on important issues. Higgins has spoken out on the war in Gaza and NATO spending, among other things. When results will be known Polls close at 10 p.m. Friday. Counting begins Saturday, and the result is likely to be known by late Saturday. The new president will be inaugurated at a ceremony in Dublin Castle the day after. More

Plaid Cymru have won a key seat in the Senedd after a Reform UK surge allowed Welsh nationalists to snatch the traditionally Labour seat away from Sir Keir Starmer’s party. Lindsay Whittle, a long-standing councillor in the Penyrheol ward and leader of the group on Caerphilly Council, won the seat with 47.38 per cent of the vote. In second place was Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell on 35.9 per cent, while Welsh Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe came third with just 11 per cent – in a humiliating defeat for the party. Labour has run the Welsh Parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999 and Caerphilly has been one of its strongholds.But opposition parties hoping to form the next Welsh Government have run fierce campaigns in the South Wales constituency, with many seeing this week’s byelection as a bellwether for the Senedd election next May. The by-election also comes in the run-up to a vote on the next Welsh Government budget, which has heaped even more pressure on the Labour campaign.When passing its last budget in March, the Government needed the help of an opposition member to get it through by a tight margin.While Labour is the largest party in the Senedd, it does not have a majority, and the next budget vote in January is likely to be even more difficult after losing the Caerphilly seat.The by-election was called following the death of Hefin Wyn David, a Labour politician who was first elected in Caerphilly in 2016.There will be an inquest into his death in April next year. More

A long-awaited inquiry into grooming gangs may now not take place until next year.Government sources have told The Times that it could take months to find a new chair after both contenders to oversee the probe – former police officer Jim Gamble and Annie Hudson – pulled out this week.The government is taking urgent steps to find new candidates after the exit of “leading” option Mr Gamble – but ministers will “take the time, likely months”, to appoint the right chair, the source said. The inquiry has been thrown into disarray after the loss of the two candidates to chair the probe, as well as the departure of five women from the victims liaison panel.Four of the women who quit have said they would be prepared to return if safeguarding minister Jess Phillips resigns, while five of those still on the advisory panel have said they would only stay if she remains in post.The five backing Ms Phillips said in a letter to Sir Keir Starmer and home secretary Shabana Mahmood that her retaining her role is one of the conditions for their continued participation. They wrote that the minister has “remained impartial” and “we want her to remain in position for the duration of the process for consistency”. Safeguarding minister Jess Phillips is facing calls to resign (PA) More

Rachel Reeves is reportedly considering raising income tax in her Budget next month in what would be a major break of one of Labour’s main manifesto pledges.Sources have told The Guardian that she may raise income tax to fill a hole in the public finances estimated at between £30bn and £50bn. The paper reported the Chancellor is “nervous” about breaking such a major pledge, but some advisers in the Treasury and No 10 believe it may be the only way to raise enough money to make sure she does not have to raise taxes again this parliament.Before the election, Labour’s pledged no tax rises on working people.But one source said the Treasury is considering adding 1p to the basic rate, which would raise more than £8 billion. Another believes she will likely raise higher or additional rates, which would bring smaller sums of £2bn and £230m at rates beginning at roughly £50,000 and £125,000 a year.A senior official said there have been discussions about how much headroom Ms Reeves wanted to give herself, with some saying she wants more than the £10bn she accounted for at the spring statement.A senior official said there have been discussions about how much headroom Reeves wanted to give herself, with some saying she wants more than the £10bn she accounted for at the spring statement More

Nearly two thirds of Brits believe Brexit has been a failure – and they mainly blame Boris Johnson, a survey has revealed.Despite slogans on Leave campaign buses claiming £350million was being sent each week to the European Union, most also believe the UK’s exit has failed because of the damage it has done to the economy.The new figures, part of a major report to be unveiled on Friday, come just days after Rachel Reeves warned Brexit had an even bigger impact on the economy than critics predicted. ( More

Sir Keir Starmer has said that the public will never need a digital ID to access a hospital, but admitted that the full cost of the new scheme is still not known. The prime minister reiterated on Thursday that digital IDs will only be mandatory when it comes to the right to work. The scheme was first announced last month, and has been highlighted as a way to prove a person has the right to work in the UK as part of the government’s bid to cut illegal migration. Asked whether a digital ID would be needed to access a hospital, Sir Keir told the BBC on Thursday: “Absolutely not”.“Apart from the right to work and having a digital ID, it won’t be mandatory,” he said. “You’ll never need ID to get into a hospital or anything like that.” However, he admitted officials are not clear on how much the scheme will cost overall.Some experts have expressed concerns that a digital ID card system could leave the country vulnerable to data security breaches More