UK Politics

Nigel Farage is on track to become Britain’s next prime minister, with a major new poll showing the party is close to having enough support to form a majority government if an election were held today. The seat-by-seat YouGov poll, the second such poll since the election, indicates the party has extended its lead over Labour, significantly increasing Mr Farage’s chances of entering Downing Street in 2029. It suggests Reform would increase its MPs from just five to 311, making it the largest party in a hung parliament and just 15 seats short of the 326 needed for an outright majority. In June, the last time YouGov conducted a seat-by-seat poll, it put Reform on track to have 271 MPs. The multi-level regression and post-stratification poll (MRP) showed Labour would lose 267 of the seats it won in 2024, putting the party on just 144 MPs. This is down from the 178 MPs YouGov predicted they would win in their last MRP poll. There would also be a significant number of cabinet casualties, with ministers Bridget Phillipson, Ed Miliband, Lisa Nandy, John Healey, Jonathan Reynolds, Emma Reynolds, Pat McFadden, Wes Streeting and Yvette Cooper all at risk of losing their seats. Writing in The Times in the wake of the polling, pollster Sir John Curtice issued a stark warning, saying Labour MPs have “every reason to fear being swept away in a tsunami of unpopularity that would be every bit as damaging as that which engulfed the Conservatives last year”. But Conservative peer and pollster Lord Hayward told The Independent the YouGov polling should be treated with “extreme caution”, warning against looking at polls “this far out from a general election”.”If you go back, Boris Johnson swept the local elections in 2021 and he wasn’t even prime minister a year later. So treat with caution – extreme caution.”But he said there is no denying that Reform are in a strong position, saying their success is “visibly causing problems to both the legacy parties, Conservative and Labour”. “If you look at the opinion polls, not just MRP polls, but political opinion polls in general, there’s no question Reform had a good recess in September. Immigration, which is their issue, has become the number one issue. “It’s very rare in any Western democracy for the economy not to be the number one issue, but immigration is the main issue… So there’s no question that Reform are strong. “It is visibly causing problems to both the legacy parties, Conservative and Labour, but Labour in government.”The poll shows that 231 Labour seats would be lost to Reform, 26 would be lost to the SNP, and the remaining 10 would be split between the other parties.The Tories would also face a disaster scenario, being left with just 45 MPs, the poll showed – putting them behind Reform UK, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, which the poll put at 78 MPs. This is a marginal improvement from the 72 seats they won at the general election. Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage is ‘interested in the politics of grievance’, the prime minister said More

Reform UK’s former leader in Wales has pleaded guilty at the Old Bailey to eight bribery charges while an elected member of the European parliament.The charges stated that Nathan Gill, as an elected member of the European parliament for the constituency of Wales in the UK, “agreed to receive financial advantage, namely money”, which constituted “the improper performance” as the holder of an elected office.At his last court appearance, it was alleged that the 52-year-old made statements in the European parliament and in opinion pieces to news outlets, such as 112 Ukraine, which were “supportive of a particular narrative” that would “benefit Russia regarding events in Ukraine”.The Anglesey man was said to have been tasked by former political pundit Oleg Voloshyn on at least eight occasions to make specific statements in return for money.At the earlier hearing, the court heard the bribery offences took place between 6 December 2018 and 18 July 2019.Gill denied one charge of conspiracy to commit bribery during the hearing at the Old Bailey on Friday.Nathan Gill, then a Brexit Party MEP candidate for Wales, with Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage in 2019 More

The Electoral Commission has dismissed a request by the Conservatives to reopen an investigation into undeclared donations to Sir Keir Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney and Labour Together, saying they found “no evidence of any other potential offences”.The organisation, where Mr McSweeney was director before coming to work for Sir Keir, was fined by the elections watchdog over its handling of £740,000 donations in 2021.But the Tories had claimed a leaked email from a lawyer to Mr McSweeney had sought to mislead the Electoral Commission.Morgan McSweeney was director of Labour Together (Jonathan Brady/PA) More

Lord Menzies Campbell, former leader of the Liberal Democrats, has died at the age of 84, the party said.His family said he died peacefully at the Kyn Hurlingham care facility in London after a period of respite care, adding that one of his final days was spent watching the Lib Dem party conference. Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey described Lord Campbell – known as Ming – as a “dedicated public servant, a tireless champion for Fife, St Andrews and the UK, and a true Liberal giant.” Lord Campbell was a ‘true Liberal giant’, Sir Ed Davey said More

Sir Keir Starmer’s plan to introduce digital ID does not mean everyone will have to carry it with them, with a government minister insisting it will be “entirely their choice” whether people use it. Under the proposal, individuals will not be asked to produce it, other than when they are proving a right to work in the UK.The plan, which would require a law change to implement, comes amid mounting pressure on ministers to take more drastic action to tackle migration as boat crossings reach a record high and the asylum backlog is still above 75,000 – pressure exacerbated by the success of Reform UK in the polls.The plan comes amid mounting pressure on ministers to take more drastic action to tackle migration More

When Alex, 48, from Bristol received his first Universal Credit payment – £50 short of his rent – it was “an absolutely devastating experience, mentally, financially, emotionally,” he says.“There was no attempt whatsoever to help me. Just the repeated verbatim script, even when I opened up about the state of my mental health. It was just a mechanical conversation and there was no will or effort to help you at all.”The single father turned to Universal Credit after losing his job in 2023. He had worked for 30 years in marketing, holding several senior positions, but found it far harder than in the past to secure a new role.He is one of thousands of benefit claimants who have faced mental health struggles, as interacting with the welfare system is driving too many into ‘despair,’ a new report has found.More than half of all benefit claimants (51 per cent) say that claiming has damaged their mental health, research from welfare charity Turn2Us reveals, while 68 per cent say they feel ashamed of seeking the support they are entitled to.The research by Bristol University’s Personal Finance Research Centre finds that stigma is “structural and systemic” in the social security system, run in the UK by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP).Labour has said it is working to ‘overhaul’ Jobcentres in the UK (PA) More

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has confirmed plans to introduce digital IDs by the end of this Parliament.Here is what we know so far:– Will they be compulsory?Digital IDs will become mandatory to prove the right to work, but people will not be required to carry the document or be asked to produce it.All UK citizens and everyone who wants to work in the UK will have to have one.The Government will make sure everyone has one in the same way that every citizen of the UK has a national insurance number, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said.She stressed however that it would be up to people to decide if they want to use the ID.Ms Nandy appeared to be referring to a choice of whether to have the ID downloaded on to a phone or to use it for reasons beyond proving the right to work.“Although all UK citizens will have a digital ID, it will not be mandatory for people to use it. It will be entirely their choice,” she said.– Why is the Government doing this?The IDs are intended to be authoritative proof of identity to show the right to work.They are part of efforts to deter illegal immigrants from travelling to the UK as the Government hopes the move will make it harder for people to work without the right to do so.National insurance numbers will not suffice to check employment rights in future and Ms Nandy flagged that because they are not linked to photo ID, it is difficult to verify that they are being used by the right person.In the long term, the IDs could be used to apply for other services – such as driving licences, childcare and welfare – or give quicker access to tax records.Countries that already have similar systems in place include Denmark, where students can log in and retrieve records needed for job or university applications using their national digital IDs.– How will people get the IDs?The IDs will be held on smartphones – in the same way the NHS App and contactless bank cards are – and the Government has said it will ensure everyone has one.However, it is not yet clear how the scheme will be rolled out.A consultation is yet to come and will seek to determine how it would work for groups who may not use phones or have difficulty doing so, including older people, the homeless and people with disabilities.The Government has already been working on a GOV.UK digital wallet for use on smartphones, which will house a digital driving licence that has already been announced.– What about cybersecurity concerns?The system will use encryption and authentication technology that is already in use to protect digital transactions.If a device is stolen or lost, the digital credentials stored on it can be revoked and reissued right away.The Government expects this to provide better security than traditional physical documents.– Does it require legislation?The move is subject to consultation but when asked whether the change would go before Parliament or just be done, Ms Nandy told LBC: “This is being done.” More

Welcome to an exclusive Ask Me Anything session with me, John Rentoul, The Independent’s chief political commentator.Keep scrolling for more. If you want to jump straight to the Q&A, click here.Sir Keir Starmer is facing the most serious test of his leadership since entering Downing Street just 14 months ago.Angela Rayner’s departure from government has intensified speculation about his future, while Labour MPs openly question his grip on the party. Names are being floated as possible successors – from Andy Burnham, who is not even an MP, to Lucy Powell – but none of the factions manoeuvring against Starmer has a clear candidate or programme.Meanwhile, fresh YouGov polling shows Nigel Farage’s Reform party on the brink of an outright majority at the next election, with Labour slumping to second place. And Morgan McSweeney, the prime minister’s chief of staff, continues to face a barrage of questions about his failure to declare donations to the campaign group that helped make Starmer leader of the Labour Party five years ago. Against that backdrop, Starmer’s stumbles – from U-turns on welfare reform to the chaotic handling of Peter Mandelson’s brief Washington appointment – have left MPs and activists alike wondering whether he can survive, let alone lead Labour into another contest.So, is Starmer’s premiership already running out of road? Can Labour close ranks before Farage capitalises further – and does anyone in the party have both the ideas and the credibility to take over if he falls?Join me live at 4pm BST on Saturday 27 September to discuss the turmoil in Labour, Starmer’s political future, and what it all means for the balance of power in Westminster.Submit your questions in the comments below. If you’re not already a member, click “sign up” in the comments section to participate. For a full guide on how to comment, click here.Don’t worry if you can’t see your question right away – some may be hidden until the Q&A starts. See you at 4pm! More