Local elections scorecard: How to judge a good – and disastrous – night for Labour, Reform and Tories
Polls have closed in the local elections in various parts of England and the Runcorn and Helsby by-election with all the main parties now busily trying to manage expectations in case they fall below what is predicted for them.However, the results of the county council and mayoral elections as well as the by-election will give an indication of how well or badly the parties are doing in reality. Many parts of the country did not have a vote but real elections are in some ways a much better indicator of a party’s political strength than the polls.Each party has a minimum expectation or floor and higher targets as a ceiling for what is likely to unfurl as votes are counted and results declared over the next 24 hours.Renowned pollster Lord Robert Hayward, who has published his expected range of results, said: “If parties go above the high end then they are doing very well indeed but if they go below the minimum expectation then it is very bad.“You have to consider the full range of elections including councils, mayoralties and the by-election in judging how successful or disastrous the election has been for a party. Also councils controlled after the results are declared and biggest parties in councils.“There are clearly minimum expectations and reasonable high aims for each party.”A black Labrador outside a polling station as final preparations are made for the 2025 local elections (Jacob King/PA Wire) More