UK Politics

The Ministry of Defence is spending an “astounding” £300,000 a year on opinion polling and “focus groups”, it has been revealed.The spending, which comes as the government cuts over 5,000 soldiers from the army on cost grounds, is being criticised by opposition MPs as a waste of taxpayers’ money.The Independent asked the MoD what exactly it was polling people about or what it was asking people in focus groups, but the department would not say.A spokesperson would only say the ministry was measuring public opinion so it could “continue to communicate clearly and effectively”.Government departments increasingly spend significant amounts of taxpayer cash measuring opinion and testing out different communications strategies on the public.Polling purports to give a snapshot of public opinion on a particular issue, but the responses often depend on how the question is asked, with results open to a range of interpretations.Focus groups involve interviewing a small number of people in an attempt to gauge wider public opinion or reactions. The approach originated in retail marketing, and its use in political communication is more controversial.The MoD’s communications team spend £199,730 on polling in financial year 2021-22, and £108,600 on focus groups during the same period – a total of £308,330.The figure across the department could be even higher because ministers say they do not have a central record of all public opinion research conducted across the department. Liberal Democrat defence Spokesperson Jamie Stone said: “This is an astounding way to be using taxpayers’ money. As our armed forces face cuts, the Conservative Government spends hundreds of thousands of pounds on MoD polls and focus groups. You could not have a clearer sign that they have not got their priorities right. “The Government should scrap these expensive focus groups, and reinvest the money into our armed forces where it’s needed.”Responding to a parliamentary question, defence and Cabinet Office minister Leo Docherty said: “Focus groups and polling services are not recorded centrally therefore, costs for the whole of the Ministry of Defence (Mod) cannot be identified. “With regards to the MOD communications function and polling, we have counted this as quantitative opinion research, most often on external audiences.”The MoD communications function (across Top Level Budgets) spent £199,730 on polling in financial year 2021-22 [and] £108,600 on focus groups in financial year 2021-22.”An MoD Spokesperson said: “Defence plays a crucial role in keeping our country safe, levelling up communities and supporting our allies around the world. “We carry out polling and focus groups so that we can continue to communicate clearly and effectively and ensure that our policies and actions are explained in a meaningful way to the public.” More

Dominic Raab has said the government cannot “relent” and allow striking rail workers to “win” the argument amid the biggest industrial action on the network in three decades.Risking a fresh clash, the deputy prime minister also described the actions of the country’s largest rail union, RMT, as “militant” — just minutes after insisting the government did not want the dispute to become “politicised”.As inflation hit a fresh 40 year high, the cabinet minister said it showed the need to take a “firm line” with the union, telling Sky News there was a risk of a “vicious cycle” of rising wages pushing inflation even higher.His comments came as talks between Network Rail and other train companies prepare to resume negotiations with RMT in attempt to break the deadlock after the first of three days of industrial action.Mr Raab said he understood unions “feel their job is to protect their workers”, before describing the strike action as “counterproductive” and claimed it was for Network Rail to deal with the union, rather than ministers.“This risks being politicised, actually, the successive approach of governments is to have Network Rail dealing with the technical aspects of that in the room and I think that would hopefully increase the chances of a depoliticised approach,” he said.But asked how long the government would let the strike go on, Mr Raab replied: “We can’t allow, I’m afraid, the unions in this very militant way they’ve proceeded, to win this argument because it will only hurt the poorest in society.”Pressed on his use of the word “militant”, Mr Raab said millions were being disrupted, with blue collar workers, including cleaners and electricians, suffering the “most”.“If we want to get inflation down quicker we cannot relent,” the justice secretary added when quizzed on warnings of a summer of discontent facing the country.RMT general secretary Mick Lynch said the turnout at picket lines on Tuesday was “fantastic” and had exceeded expectations in the union’s campaign for job security, defending conditions and a decent pay rise.“Our members will continue the campaign and have shown outstanding unity in the pursuit of a settlement to this dispute,” he said.“RMT members are leading the way for all workers in this country who are sick and tired of having their pay and conditions slashed by a mixture of big business profits and Government policy.“Now is the time to stand up and fight for every single railway worker in this dispute that we will win.”Speaking to The Independent on Tuesday, Frances O’Grady, the general secretary of the Trade Union Congress said that the government’s approach will cause “widespread hardship” among working families and damage the economy by suppressing consumer demand.She added: “Britain is in the middle of the worst cost of living crisis in generations. The last thing working families need right now is a race to the bottom on pay.“Holding down wages in the public sector – to keep pay awards lower in the private sector – will cause widespread hardship. And it will suck demand out of our economy by depressing consumer spending.“It’s also jarring to hear the prime minister call for nurses, teachers and other public sector key workers to tighten the belts when he’s looking to tear up the limits on City bosses’ pay.” More

Brexit will damage Britain’s competitiveness, hit productivity and dampen workers’ wages for the rest of the decade, according to a damning new study.The Resolution Foundation think tank’s report, in collaboration with the London School of Economics, said quitting the EU would make Britain “poorer” during the 2020s.The study said the immediate impact of Brexit was already clear, with a “depreciation-driven inflation spike” increasing the cost of living for households and cutting investment.The research estimated that labour productivity will be reduced by 1.3 per cent by the end of the decade through changes in trading rules, contributing to weaker wage growth.The economists said real pay was set to be £470 lower per worker each year, on average, than it would have been if Britain had opted to stay inside the EU.Output of the UK fishing industry is expected to decline by 30 per cent and some workers will face “painful adjustments” in the decade ahead, said the Resolution Foundation.The report also added that the northeast of England – part of the red wall Boris Johnson’s Conservatives were able to turn blue at the last election – is expected to be hit hardest by Brexit, since its firms are particularly reliant on exports to the EU.The UK may not have seen a large relative slump in its exports to the EU that some predicted many predicted but imports from the EU have fallen more swiftly than those from the rest of the world, the study suggested.The report said Britain had experienced a decline of 8 per cent in “trade openness” – trade as a share of economic output – since 2019, losing market share across three of its largest non-EU goods import markets in 2021, the US, Canada and Japan.The full effect of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) struck with the EU will take years to be felt, say the authors, but it is clear the nation is moving towards a more closed economy.Sophie Hale, principal economist at the Resolution Foundation, said Brexit represented “the biggest change to Britain’s economic relationship with the rest of the world in half a century”.She said: “This has led many to predict that it would cause a particularly big fall in exports to the EU, and fundamentally reshape Britain’s economy towards more manufacturing.”“The first of these has not come to pass, and the second looks unlikely to do so,” the economist added.“Instead, Brexit has had a more diffuse impact by reducing the UK’s competitiveness and openness to trade with a wider range of countries. This will ultimately reduce productivity, and workers’ real wages too.”It follows a recent study by the Centre for European Reform (CEF) which found Brexit was “largely to blame” for billions being lost in trade and tax revenues in recent years.The think tank said that by the end of last year, Britain’s economy was 5.2 per cent – or £31bn – smaller than it would have been without Brexit and the Covid pandemic.“We can’t blame Brexit for all of the 5.2 per cent GDP shortfall … but it’s apparent that Brexit is largely to blame,” said John Springford, author of the CEF study.It comes as Mr Johnson’s government was accused of hypocrisy for planning to cut controls on City bosses’ pay while calling for wage restraint in the public sector.No 10 chief of staff Steve Barclay is said to have written to chancellor Rishi Sunak with a plan for “deregulatory measures to reduce the overall burden on business” and attract companies following Brexit.Confirming the plan, Downing Street said the government was exploring how non-executive directors were paid, not how much – including removing “unnecessary restrictions on paying non-executive directors shares”.But Labour accused the government of using “two sets of rules” on wages – one for people on high incomes in the City, and another for workers elsewhere. More

Dominic Raab has hit back at criticism that replacing the Human Rights Act is “racist” and sets up a fresh Brexit clash, as he publishes the controversial legislation.A new Bill of Rights is under fire for ripping up vital protections while putting the UK on a collision course with Brussels – by neutering the influence of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR).But, in an interview with The Independent, the deputy prime minister accused his critics of ignoring “common sense” and of exaggerating the risk of a clash with the Strasbourg Court.Campaigners have warned that injustices such as the Hillsborough disaster and the failure to investigate ‘black cab rapist’ John Worboys would have never been exposed if the shake-up was already in place.And they said plans for past “conduct of claimants” to be taken into account when cases are brought for rights violations will hit ethnic minority groups disproportionately.But Mr Raab dismissed those fears, insisting there would be no impact on anyone just because they have been put on a police database, or been stopped and searched.“The common law already reflects the principle that a claimant who seeks compensation must come with clean hands, so why shouldn’t we do that with human rights claims? For most people, that’s just common sense,” Mr Raab said.He also rejected the warning, by a Cambridge University professor of EU law, that ignoring ECHR rulings risks retaliation from the EU – for breaching the Brexit withdrawal agreement.Mr Raab said: “Our record of compliance with Strasbourg rulings compared to other major EU countries is very strong, so it is not a very balanced criticism, if I can put that gently.”The deputy prime minister – and justice secretary – is also under fire for failing to allow proper parliamentary scrutiny of the Bill of Rights, against the recommendation of Commons committees.Around 150 organisations, led by the campaign group Liberty, fear dramatic changes will be rammed though without “robust consideration” of the shake-up.Publishing the Bill, Mr Raab will confirm the UK will stay in the European Convention of Human Rights – after No 10 hinted it might pull out, amid the Rwanda deportations controversy.But the shake-up will prevent a repeat of the ECHR using an interim injunction to block flights, by making clear ‘rule 39’ moves are not binding on UK courts.It will make it easier to deport foreign offenders and asylum seekers, by stripping out the defence of a right to a family life in the UK for anyone convicted of an “imprisonable” offence.The crackdown will also block attempts to enforce human rights even before they reach a courtroom, by requiring early proof of suffering “a significant disadvantage”.It will make the UK Supreme Court “the ultimate judicial decision-maker” on human rights issues, removing the need to follow ECHR case law.Mr Raab will also argue he is boosting media freedom by introducing a stronger test for courts to consider before ordering journalists to disclose their sources. More

Bulgarian lawmakers on Tuesday started debating a no-confidence motion against the minority government, on the eve of the vote that could well topple centrist Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, elected just months ago on pledges to fight corruption.Parliament will vote Wednesday on the motion filed last week by the center-right opposition GERB party, over the government’s handling of the public finances and economic policy in the face of sharply rising inflation.If the motion passes, as expected, it will thrust the NATO and European Union nation of 7 million people back into political turmoil. In 2021, three separate general elections were held as Bulgaria lurched from one political crisis to another. Political instability could also boost historically strong Russian influence in the Black Sea country that has seen a spike in pro-Russian and anti-Western propaganda.Petkov’s coalition controls only 109 of parliament’s 240 seats, after his populist coalition partner, the There is Such a People party, quit this month over similar fiscal complaints and Bulgaria’s relations with neighboring North Macedonia. While five legislators from the party defected to Petkov, he will need at least another 6 votes to survive Wednesday’s ballot.Inflation in Bulgaria — the EU’s poorest member — hit 15.6% in May, which is the highest year-on-year increase in consumer prices since 2008. About a thousand pro-government protesters converged near the parliament building in the capital Sofia late Tuesday, to express their support for Petkov’s administration with chants of “we will succeed together.”Petkov, a 42-year-old Harvard-educated businessman elected in December, addressed the rally — telling supporters that “we will all change Bulgaria together.” “I believe that no matter what tomorrow’s vote will be, no one can stop us,” he said. “Sooner or later Bulgaria will be where it should be: a prosperous European (country), with working institutions, a working judiciary, good education (and) healthcare.”Several hundred anti-government protesters also gathered Tuesday evening near parliament. Petkov urged lawmakers on Tuesday to keep “the interests of the people” in mind when they vote. Ruslan Stefanov, program director at the Center for the Study of Democracy, a Sofia-based think tank, described the no-confidence motion as the result of “internal squabbling over the allocation of budgetary funds.” “This is not a good moment for Bulgaria not to have a parliament,” he told The Associated Press. “Bulgaria is about to receive about 4 billion (euros) in funds from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Mechanism, but needs to adopt a package of about 20 laws before this happens — Bulgaria needs this money.”Bulgaria has been steadfast in backing the west’s sanctions against Moscow since it invaded Ukraine on 24. Feb. In late April, Russia cut off the country’s gas supplies after officials refused to pay for bills in rubles, Russia’s currency.But the current crisis, Stefanov added, especially if prolonged and leading to another election, would favor “forces that will be much closer to Russia that will win a bigger chunk of the pie,” potentially creating issues with Bulgaria’s western partners. GERB, the opposition party that triggered Wednesday’s vote, is headed by former prime minister Boyko Borissov, who governed Bulgaria for about a decade until 2021.In March, Borissov, who faced huge anti-government protests in 2020, was detained in a corruption crackdown along with other GERB party members following investigations by the EU prosecutor’s office. He was released a day later without being charged.——McGrath contributed from Sighisoara, Romania. More

Unions today accused Boris Johnson of pursuing a “race to the bottom” on pay, as the prime minister set the scene for months of confrontation with striking workers.As millions of train passengers faced disruption from the largest rail strike since the 1980s, Mr Johnson said the country must be ready to “stay the course” to head off public sector pay hikes which would plunge the UK into an inflationary spiral.But TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady told The Independent that the government’s approach will cause “widespread hardship” among working families and damage the economy by suppressing consumer demand.With fewer than 20 of scheduled trains running on Tuesday – and 26 per cent of those which did run subject to delays – RMT boss Mick Lynch hailed a “fantastic” response from rail workers.“RMT members are leading the way for all workers in this country who are sick and tired of having their pay and conditions slashed by a mixture of big business profits and government policy,” said Mr Lynch. “Now is the time to stand up and fight for every single railway worker in this dispute that we will win.”But a Department for Transport (DfT) spokesperson responded: “Unions have shut down big parts of the rail network, hitting local businesses and unfairly cutting people off from hospitals, schools and work.“However, early data shows that unlike in the past many people now have the opportunity to work from home, so we haven’t even a rush to the roads, as traffic has instead gone online, which means the unions aren’t having the overall impact they might have hoped.”Official figures released on Wednesday are expected to see inflation dialled up a notch from the 9 per cent recorded in April, fuelling further demands for higher pay from workers struggling to pay household bills. The National Education Union (NEU) will write to Nadhim Zahawi after seeing the figures to demand an “inflation-plus” rise for teachers, with the warning of a possible ballot on industrial action in the autumn.General secretary Kevin Courtney said the union will urge the education secretary to “re-evaluate” his earlier proposal of a 3 per cent hike in the light of fast-rising inflation, which is forecast to reach at least 11 per cent in the coming months.Meanwhile, the Communication Workers Union (CWU) announced it will ballot 115,000 Royal Mail staff over a “totally inadequate” 2 per cent pay award, while sectors ranging from health workers to barristers and civil servants mull industrial action. Tellingly, a threatened strike by refuse collectors working for Veolia was averted only by the offer of a 7.5 per cent rise – below inflation but well above the 2-3 per cent being offered to rail workers and in line with the 7 per cent demanded by the RMT.The outcome of the rail dispute will set a precedent for a range of public sector professions as recommendations from pay review bodies are received by ministers over the coming weeks.Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) director Paul Johnson said that a settlement of 7 or even 9 per cent for any particular group of workers would not be inflationary in itself, but if it became the norm it risked being passed on in prices.Junior doctors have already indicated their willingness to consider strike action, and the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) today warned that pay was “a crucial factor” in the recruitment and retention crisis which has seen more than 80 per cent of shifts facing staff shortages. “Following the UK government’s pay award announcement, RCN members will have a chance to speak up for their profession, and their patients,” a spokesperson told The Independent.While Mr Johnson accused “union barons” of causing “all sorts of unnecessary aggravations” to people trying to get to work and schoolchildren sitting exams, there were signs that the country is split over the strikes.Some 58 per cent of those questioned by pollsters Savanta ComRes after being given a description of the issues behind the dispute said the rail strikes were “justified”, against 34 per cent who said they were not. A separate poll by YouGov found that 37 per cent were “supportive” of the strikes – which are due to be repeated on Thursday and Saturday, causing disruption throughout the week – and 45 per cent “opposed”.Opinions were divided over who was to blame for the walkout, but voters appeared to reject the government’s argument that it could not get involved in negotiations between rail employers and unions.Two-thirds (66 per cent) of those questioned by Savanta said the government had not done enough to prevent strikes, with 61 per cent saying the same about transport secretary Grant Shapps, 57 per cent about Network Rail and 49 per cent the RMT.Talks between unions and employers are due to resume on Wednesday after a 24-hour break for the first day of the strike.Downing Street accused unions of resisting reforms to “outdated practices”, such as restrictions on the use of technology or resistance to using apps which could boost productivity. In a clear indication that he is ready to see the dispute rumble on rather than give ground, Mr Johnson told a meeting of his cabinet: “We need, I’m afraid, everybody – and I say this to the country as a whole – we need to get ready to stay the course.“To stay the course, because these reforms, these improvements in the way we run our railways, are in the interests of the travelling public, they will help to cut costs for farepayers up and down the country.”Mr Johnson’s official spokesperson warned that generous rises in the public sector would become “embedded in the labour market”, sending a signal to private companies to make similar offers and triggering an inflationary spiral which would hit the real value of everyone’s pay packet.The same consideration did not apply to state pension rises, expected to match inflation in line with the “triple lock” protection, he said.“The prime minister’s view is it is in the long-term interest of both the country and the public to not give in to some of these demands,” said the spokesperson.But Ms O’Grady said: “Britain is in the middle of the worst cost of living crisis in generations.“The last thing working families need right now is a race to the bottom on pay.“Holding down wages in the public sector – to keep pay awards lower in the private sector – will cause widespread hardship. And it will suck demand out of our economy by depressing consumer spending.“It’s also jarring to hear the prime minister call for nurses, teachers and other public sector key workers to tighten the belts when he’s looking to tear up the limits on City bosses’ pay.”Mr Courtney said Mr Zahawi must revise teachers’ offer upwards in the light of fast-increasing prices.“When he wrote to our pay review body to give evidence, he said that experienced teachers should get a 3 per cent pay rise,” the NEU boss told The Independent.“Inflation has gone up dramatically since then. We’re saying that he must re-evaluate.“There’s a profound crisis developing in teacher recruitment and retention. He cannot turn away from the impact that double-digit inflation will have on making that worse unless there is a proper pay offer.”Mr Courtney said that, with pay still below its 2010 level when inflation is taken into account, the government was making a “big mistake” in demanding restraint from working people.And Unison general secretary Christina McAnea told The Independent: “Health workers in England are still waiting for the government to announce the pay rise they were due almost three months ago.“Any increase must be above inflation. This wouldn’t solve every problem in the NHS but should prove enough to stop many experienced staff from leaving.” More

A majority of voters think this week’s rail strikes are justified and two-thirds (66 per cent) think the government has not done enough to prevent them happening, according to a new poll.The survey, by Savanta ComRes, found that 58 per cent of those questioned thought the strikes were justified, against just one-third (34 per cent) who say they are not.The findings, based on a poll of 2,336 adults on Monday, suggest that Boris Johnson’s attempts to use the strikes as a “wedge” issue to draw a political line with Labour may not be succeeding.However, Savanta’s political research director Chris Hopkins cautioned that opinions may shift over the course of week of disruption during which three strike days are planned.And a separate poll by YouGov found that 37 per cent described themselves as “supportive” of the strikes and 45 per cent “opposed”.For the Savanta poll, respondents were given an explanation of the dispute before answering questions, while the YouGov survey simply asked them how supportive they were, in a possible indication that learning more about the issues involved makes individuals more sympathetic to workers taking industrial action.Strikingly, the Savanta poll found that six in 10 (60 per cent) say that they are generally supportive of workers striking, while just 35 per cent were generally opposed.The poll indicated that more voters blame government than the unions for the industrial action, which is expected to be followed by more strikes later in the year.Some 66 per cent said that the government had not done enough to prevent them happening, 61 per cent said the same about transport secretary Grant Shapps, 57 per cent Network Rail and 49 per cent the RMT.Younger voters aged 18-34 (72 per cent) and Labour voters (79 per cent) were more likely to see the strikes as justified compared to their older (44 per cent) and Conservative-voting (38 per cent) counterparts.The poll suggested that about one in 12 of the population have cancelled planned journeys as a result of the three days of strikes.Around a quarter (24 per cent) said they had been intending to use the railways this week, of whom just over a third (34 per cent) said they will no longer make the trip.With professions ranging from teachers to nurses to barristers and civil servants set to be balloted on industrial action, seven in ten (70 per cent) said that the rail strike going ahead made others more likely later in the summer.Commenting on the findings, Mr Hopkins said: “Much has been made of whether or not the public support these strikes, and our polling – that included an explanation of the dispute rather than an uninformed test of perceptions – shows a majority finding justification in the decision of rail workers to strike, along with general support for the principle of workers striking.”What will be interesting over the coming days is to what extent the public mood changes.“Fieldwork here was conducted before the strike began; after a week of coverage of likely disruption, will the public be as sympathetic? And what impact will that have on those other unions threatening to ballot their members over a pay deal nowhere near in line with high inflation?“These issues are just more things to give this government a headache as it heads towards a summer where the rising cost of living will have further negative consequences.” More