UK Politics

The chairman of the Commons sleaze committee Chris Bryant has claimed he has spoken to “about a dozen” Tory MPs threatened by whips, as hit out at the government’s “complete abandonment of any kind of moral compass”.The Labour MP’s remarks came after the Conservative MP William Wragg — who first made the incendiary allegations of “blackmail” by government whips — said he will meet with and officer from the Metropolitan Police to discuss the claims next week.Mr Wragg claimed on Thursday that the prime minister’s Conservative critics were receiving threats to “withdraw investments” from constituents, as well as “intimidation” from No 10 staff.The MP for Bury South, Christian Wakeford, who defected from the Tories to Labour earlier this week, also said he was told funding for a new schools in his constituency would be withheld if he did not vote with the government over free school meals.Mr Bryant, who chairs the Commons Standards, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Saturday that threats to withdraw funding from MPs’ constituencies amounted to “misconduct in public office” and should be referred to the police.He also revealed: “It’s not just a couple of incidences… I must have spoken to about a dozen Tory MPs in the last few days who have made similar allegations about whips either offering to withdraw financial support for their constituencies… or saying they will get something if they vote the right way”.Despite Mr Johnson’s claim to not have heard or seen any evidence to substantiate the claims. Mr Bryant continued: “I have even heard MPs alleging that the prime minister himself has been doing this”.“What I have said to all of those people is that that is misconduct in public office. The people who should be dealing with such allegations are the police.”He added: “It is illegal. We are meant to operate as MPs without fear or favour. The allocation of taxpayer funding to constituencies should be according to need, not according to the need to keep the prime minister in his job.“The levelling up funds that have been introduced in the last two years are an open opportunity for government ministers to corruptly hand out money to some MPs and not to others.”Mr Bryant also claimed: “This is the end strikes to the heart of whether or not we have a government that understands the proper way of doing things.“The big problem for me is what we’ve seen for the last nine months is that there’s a complete abandonment of any kind of moral compass around all of these issues.”Mr Wragg, who revealed last week he had submitted a letter of no confidence in the prime minister, told The Telegraph that he had arranged to meet with a detective in the Commons “early next week”, with whom he would briefly discuss “several examples” of bullying and intimidation, and in some cases involving public money.“I stand by what I have said. No amount of gas-lighting will change that,” said Mr Wragg, who chairs the Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee.A Scotland Yard spokesperson told The Independent that the force could not discuss any planned meetings, adding of the potential blackmail claims: “As with any such allegations, should a criminal offence be reported to the Met, it would be considered.”And last night, lawyers also threatened legal action, warning that alleged threats to withhold government funding from rebel MPs’ constituencies were an “unlawful misuse of ministerial powers” which may amount to misconduct in public office.Speaking on Friday, a Downing Street spokesperson confirmed that no inquiry was being launched into allegations of bullying of MPs by whips, saying only that evidence would be looked at “if it came forward”.Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng had said threats to withhold government funding were “completely unacceptable” and ministers need to “get to the bottom” of Mr Wragg’s assertion. But he stressed he had not come across such activities in his 12 years as an MP and thought it “very unlikely” to be true. More

Boris Johnson is under pressure to ensure all evidence in the Sue Gray report into rule-busting parties at No 10 during Covid restrictions is published in its “entirety”.It comes amid reports the prime minister has regrouped allies from his victorious 2019 leadership campaign in order to shore up support among Conservative MPs in the face of the looming prospect of a no confidence vote.While some Tory backbenchers have openly called for Mr Johnson to resign — including the former cabinet minister David Davis — many are reserving judgement until the publication of Ms Gray’s report, which is expected next week.But in a row over the publication of the document, Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader, stressed that “all accompanying evidence” must be disclosed after Ms Gray, the senior civil servant, presents her report to the prime minister.It comes after The Guardian reported that some evidence, including emails, text messages and transcripts of interviews, will not be made public. Under the terms of reference of the internal inquiry — set by the government — it made clear only the “findings” of the probe will be revealed.In a statement, however, Ms Rayner said: “Boris Johnson cannot be allowed to cover-up or obscure any of the truth when he has insisted on a hugely protracted internal probe to tell him which parties he attended and what happened in his own home”.“The Sue Gray report must be published in its entirety with all accompanying evidence,” she insisted.Ms Rayner also claimed: “Under Boris Johnson, transparency in government has been eroded. The Conservatives have shown us how little respect they have for the rules, we’ve seen: private WhatsApp’s, missing phones, a Freedom of Information Clearing House, lost minutes of lobbying meetings – their cover-up culture has lost the trust of the British public. “Bereaved families, our key workers and all those that diligently followed the rules have been insulted enough by the Prime Minister’s cover-ups and lies.”Her call was echoed by the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Ed Davey, who also told The Guardian: “Aside from personnel and employment issues, Boris Johnson owes it to parliament, and above all to the people, to publish this report and the transcripts in full. Anything else will be seen as the usual lies and bending of the rules.”According to The Times, Mr Johnson and his allies are using a spreadsheet to detail the positions of MP, including those who are loyal or wavering over his leadership, with Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, said to playing a key role in the operation.The prime minister is also expected to spend the weekend at his countryside residence, Chequers, calling MPs and trying to win them over before a possible confidence vote. More

Revelations that Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his staff partied while Britain was in a coronavirus lockdown have provoked public outrage and led some members of his Conservative Party to consider ousting their leader.If they manage to push Johnson out — or if he resigns — the party would hold a leadership contest to choose his replacement.Here’s a look at who could rise if Johnson falls: RISHI SUNAK, TREASURY CHIEFSunak, 41, is widely regarded as the brightest rising star in the party, the best known of the contenders to the public — and the bookies’ favorite to succeed Johnson.Sunak was thrust into the spotlight when he became treasury chief in early 2020, tasked with the unenviable job of steering the British economy through its worst economic slump on record due to the pandemic. Sunak has dished out billions of pounds in emergency spending to help businesses and workers, and his pandemic policies have generally been seen in a positive light. A big “Star Wars” fan, Sunak nurtures his personal brand with a slick Instagram account. Opinion polls have suggested that he is one of the most popular Conservative ministers among voters, though his elite education and past work for the investment bank Goldman Sachs and a hedge fund means some see him as out of touch with ordinary people.He would be Britain’s first prime minister who is not white. Born to Indian parents who immigrated to the U.K. from East Africa, Sunak attended the exclusive Winchester College private school, studied at Oxford University, and is married to Akshata Murthy, daughter of an Indian billionaire.___LIZ TRUSS, FOREIGN SECRETARY Truss, 46, took on the high-profile job of foreign secretary in September after serving as trade minister and has been gaining momentum as a contender since.As well as serving as Britain’s chief diplomat, she is the U.K.’s new lead negotiator with the European Union to deal with lingering issues following Britain’s exit from the bloc.Once a campaigner for remaining in the EU, Truss has become a fervent champion for Brexit. Her prior role as international trade secretary saw her signing post-Brexit trade deals around the world and channeling Johnson’s ambitions for “Global Britain.”Truss is popular with many Conservatives who see in the free-market-loving politician echoes of the party’s first female prime minister, Margaret Thatcher. Her supporters have coined the slogan “In Liz We Truss.”She is less well known to the general public. “When you ask about Liz Truss 50% of voters say ‘Liz who?’” said Chris Curtis, a pollster at Opinium Research.___SAJID JAVID, HEALTH SECRETARYJavid, 52, has been health secretary since June, leading Britain’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.Before that he served as treasury chief, but resigned in early 2020 after clashing with Johnson over the prime minister’s order to fire his team of advisers.The fact Johnson brought him back to the government to handle the coronavirus response reflects his reputation as a competent and safe pair of hands.The son of Pakistani immigrants, Javid has billed himself as a common-man alternative to his private school-educated rivals — although he had a lucrative career in investment banking before entering politics. As with Sunak, he’d make history if he were to win.___MICHAEL GOVE, LEVELLING UP SECRETARYGove, a party heavyweight, has held many key Cabinet posts and is currently in charge of delivering on the government’s promise to “level up” Britain, that is, address inequality by increasing opportunities in deprived areas.Gove, 54, played a key role in the campaign to take Britain out of the EU and is widely respected in the party, but not completely trusted. In the 2016 Conservative leadership campaign, he backed Johnson for leader before deciding he would rather run himself — a betrayal that many Conservatives have not forgotten.To the public, he may be best known for being filmed dancing to techno music at a nightclub in Aberdeen, Scotland, in August, in a clip that drew a lot of chuckles when it went viral on social media.___JEREMY HUNT, FORMER CABINET MINISTERHunt, a former health secretary and foreign secretary, ran against Johnson in the 2019 leadership race, billing himself as the more sensible, serious candidate. He lost heavily, and was dumped from the Cabinet when Johnson took over. In a recent interview, the 55-year-old was quoted as saying that his ambition to lead the country has not “completely vanished.”He has remained a lawmaker, and kept himself in the public eye by grilling ministers and experts as head of the Health and Social Care Select Committee in Parliament.As a critic of the government’s response to the pandemic, he may appeal to those seeking a change from Johnson — though some look on him unfavorably for implementing unpopular policies when he was health secretary. More

The senior Tory MP who spoke of blackmail by government whips against colleagues who considered votes of no confidence in Boris Johnson, has said he will meet with police next week to discuss the claims.Conservative MP William Wragg made the allegations on Thursday that threats were being made to “withdraw investments” from constituencies of those who oppose the prime minister, who is trying to cling on to his premiership in the face of the Partygate scandal. Despite Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, saying there should be an investigation into “completely unacceptable” allegations, Downing Street has refused to conduct an inquiry, and has said only that evidence will be considered “if it comes forward”.But on Friday evening, Mr Wragg – one of the first MPs to publicly declare having submitted a letter of no confidence in the prime minister – said he wanted to leave any inquiry “to the experts”.He told The Telegraph that he had arranged to meet with a Metropolitan Police detective in the House of Commons “early next week”, with whom he would briefly discuss “several” examples of bullying and intimidation, in some cases involving public money. “I stand by what I have said. No amount of gaslighting will change that,” said Mr Wragg, who chairs the Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee.A Scotland Yard spokesperson told The Independent that the force could not discuss any planned meetings, adding of the potential blackmail claims: “As with any such allegations, should a criminal offence be reported to the Met, it would be considered.”Neither the Conservative Party, nor Mr Wragg immediately responded to a request for comment. Questioned on the claims on Thursday, Mr Johnson said that he had neither seen nor heard any evidence of intimidation of MPs.According to The Telegraph, one source in the government’s whips’ office said that the claims of threats and blackmail were untrue, and asked rebel MPs for “for a single shred of evidence”.A group of red wall MPs were said on Friday to be gathering “an increasing level of evidence”, allegedly including a recording of chief whip Mark Spencer and text messages sent to MPs who were considering sending a no confidence letter to the backbench 1922 Committee chairman, Sir Graham Brady.Following Mr Wragg’s claims on Thursday, Christian Wakeford – the Bury South MP who defected from the Tories to Labour minutes before PMQs this week – alleged that he had been told funding for a new school in his constituency would be withheld if he did not vote with the government over free school meals.And on Friday, former Tory MP Ben Howlett claimed that he had been threatened over funding for a link road in his Bath constituency if he rebelled during votes on Brexit. While other Conservatives have denied ever experiencing such behaviour, the row has sparked debate over the role of the whips, long-renowned for their sometimes ruthless enforcement of discipline among MPs.Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons speaker, warned that obstruction of MPs in their work could constitute contempt of parliament, adding that MPs and their staff are “not above the criminal law”.“While the whipping system is long-established, it is of course a contempt to obstruct members in the discharge of their duty or to attempt to intimidate a member in their parliamentary conduct by threats,” he said.Earlier, Mr Kwarteng said: “Any form of blackmail and intimidation of that kind simply has no place in British politics. We need to get to the bottom of the matter. But I find it very unlikely that these allegations are true.” More

Boris Johnson has reportedly reinstated his Tory leadership team and set up a spreadsheet to keep tabs on MPs’ loyalties amid concerns he will face a no-confidence vote over the party scandal. The prime minister is relying on the group who helped him triumph in the 2019 leadership contest and has started scrutinising every Conservative MP to determine if they are on side, undecided, or eager to kick him out, according to The Times. Transport secretary Grant Shapps is reportedly playing a central role in shoring up support for the beleaguered PM and has dusted off the spreadsheet of MPs he used to help secure Mr Johnson’s leadership victory in 2019.Three former whips – Chris Pincher, Nigel Adams and Chris Heaton Harris – as well as other loyalists began work this week, the newspaper reports.Mr Johnson is set to spend the weekend in his study at Chequers, his country retreat, calling up wavering MPs and trying to win them over.Fifty-four Tory MPs must submit letters to the chairman of the 1922 Committee to trigger a no-confidence vote, and insiders now believe it is a case of “when, not if” the threshold is passed, the paper reports. The prime minister’s team are said to think they have the backing of about 300 of 359 Tory MPs.There are reportedly fears inside Downing Street that Sue Gray’s report on lockdown parties could be more damning than first thought.Mr Johnson’s chief of staff Dan Rosenfield is said to have told colleagues: “We might all need to fall on our swords here.”It comes as fresh details emerged about a party held in Downing Street on the eve of the Duke of Edinburgh’s funeral. No 10 staff reportedly partied until the early hours of the morning in a seven-hour drinking session and ordered in pizza.At the time, Covid restrictions banned socialising indoors except with members of the same household or support bubble.Opposition parties have called for evidence of Downing Street parties to be published in full, instead of an edited summary.Meanwhile the senior Tory backbencher who accused No 10 of trying to “blackmail” MPs seeking to remove Mr Johnson is to meet police next week to discuss his allegations.MP William Wragg said he will be meeting a Scotland Yard detective in the House of Commons, raising the prospect police could open an investigation.Downing Street has said it would not be mounting its own inquiry into the claims, despite calls to do so by both Conservative and opposition MPs. More

Boris Johnson’s brand has been “permanently damaged” by the No 10 parties row, a Tory peer has said, after a destablising week for the prime minister.Speaking to The Independent, Lord Hayward said that while it was “not impossible” for the prime minister to win a second majority at the ballot box for the Conservatives, it now appeared “unlikely”.The elections guru suggested that Mr Johnson could still reap the electoral rewards from a “vaccine bounce 2.0”, however, with the booster campaign continuing and Covid restrictions being eased across England.His comments came as the senior Tory MP Tobias Ellwood told The Independent that there needed to be an “absolute reset” in No 10 – even before the publication of senior civil servant Sue Gray’s report into alleged rule-busting parties held during lockdowns.With the findings of Ms Gray’s investigation expected to be presented to Mr Johnson next week, Downing Street will be braced for yet more turbulence.In the last few days, the prime minister has been threatened with a no-confidence vote, told to resign by former cabinet minister David Davis during dramatic scenes in the House of Commons, and confronted with the first defection of a Tory MP to the Labour Party in 15 years. And with opinion polls now showing more than 30 consecutive leads for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, Lord Hayward said they had taken a “massive dive for the worse and particularly in Boris’s own personal ratings”, which have also tumbled.Asked whether Mr Johnson’s personal brand had been permanently damaged by the allegations that have emerged over recent weeks, he replied: “Yes, yes. You can’t go through what he’s gone through without being damaged, permanently damaged.”But he stressed that the extent of the damage would depend on the outcome of Ms Gray’s inquiry. “I could sit with anybody and we could agree that he’s been damaged in the long term, but the extent of that damage we will not know until we get to post-Gray,” he said.On the prospect of Mr Johnson winning a majority again, the Tory peer said he believed it was “unlikely”, but added: “I don’t know whether anybody else would be able to. With the current circumstances I don’t think he could, but with the Conservative Party in the current state, if somebody else took over, there’s a possibility – I don’t know.”He continued: “The reason I say it’s unlikely is because if coronavirus goes really well for him, and he’s able to survive Gray, then the Tory party could be in a very different position, and he would be in a position to actually lead the Tory party and probably win a majority, but it has to be coronavirus-led. It’s not impossible.”Pressed on whether the prime minister could recover, Lord Hayward replied: “I think the improvement over Christmas [and] new year showed that the position could improve. Whether it would improve completely back to where the Tory party were previously, I think it’s unlikely. But I think now the possibility is much reduced.”However, he emphasised the potential impact of Covid-related developments, saying: “Vaccination bounce. Freedom bounce. That may actually save both Boris and the Tory party. He had a huge bounce this time last year – it really showed up in the May local elections.“But that is the one thing that might have a dramatic effect on the opinion polls to the benefit of the Tory party. You can call it ‘vaccine bounce 2.0’. “If we were in an ordinary era of politics, the answer is no, but we’re not in an ordinary era – one, because Boris is the prime minister, and two, because of coronavirus.”Meanwhile, Mr Ellwood told The Independent that the publication of Ms Gray’s report would “of course be significant and everyone will scan it carefully”, but cautioned: “We seem to be in almost a state of flux right now, and we should be utilising this time to begin the very tough slog of earning trust back with the British people.”“You can do that with a major overhaul of No 10 – show that we mean business,” he continued. “It has to happen anyway. Whoever is in charge of No 10, this prime minister or otherwise, they will know that No 10 needs an absolute reset.”While some Conservative backbenchers have publicly declared that they have submitted letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, many are reserving judgement on Mr Johnson’s leadership until the inquiry by Ms Gray has concluded.Asked whether Mr Johnson should stay in post, Mr Ellwood echoed the view of many of his colleagues, saying: “Nobody can make that judgement until they’ve seen the report, I don’t think.”Senior Conservative backbencher and Brexiteer Steve Baker also told The Independent that the report was “absolutely essential”, saying: “I think we’re all waiting for it one way or another, and I feel confident many members of parliament will be hoping it will give them a clear basis on which to take important decisions.”Asked whether Mr Johnson’s premiership hung in the balance over the report, he replied: “I don’t see how anyone can objectively say otherwise.”However, Mr Baker went on: “I am as convinced as ever that the Conservative Party is the best hope we have of good government, so I very much hope this report and the next few weeks will decide matters one way or the other.” More

Boris Johnson is facing the threat of legal action over the alleged intimidation of Tory MPs who are demanding his head over the Partygate scandal.Lawyers from the Good Law Project have sent the prime minister a letter before action warning that alleged threats to withhold government funding from rebel MPs’ constituencies were an “unlawful misuse of ministerial powers” which may amount to misconduct in public office.The move came as Downing Street refused to investigate claims from senior Tory William Wragg that MPs have been subjected to blackmail by whips, despite a cabinet minister’s call for them to “get to the bottom of it”.Meanwhile the prime minister’s woes deepened as it emerged there is photographic evidence of Downing Street staff drinking late into the night before the funeral of the Duke of Edinburgh in April 2021.The parties for No 10’s departing head of communications and a Downing Street photographer were already public knowledge and have been the subject of an apology.But Whitehall mandarin Sue Gray may want to consider the photograph, as well as text messages seen by The Daily Telegraph, before completing her report into allegedly lockdown-busting drinks events at No 10, expected early next week.The new evidence allegedly indicates that drinking and loud music continued to around 1am, with staff eating pizza in the No 10 garden, spilling wine on an office printer and trying out a children’s slide belonging to Mr Johnson’s son Wilf.Ahead of the release of the make-or-break report, Mr Johnson faces a high-pressure weekend of calls from his country residence Chequers to MPs believed to be preparing to submit letters expressing no confidence in his leadership.If Ms Gray’s findings point to the PM having lied to parliament, the threshold of 54 letters is expected to be swiftly reached, triggering a vote on Johnson’s leadership as early as next week.It is understood that the prime minister will receive her findings no more than 24 hours before the release of the report and is not likely to be given an opportunity to respond directly to Ms Gray ahead of publication.And it emerged on Friday that the senior civil servant, rather than Johnson, will have the final say over how much of her report is published, greatly diminishing the prime minister’s ability to control its reception.It had been thought that Mr Johnson would have the power to keep sensitive details away from the public eye by “redacting” the document, as he did with the report into bullying allegations against Priti Patel.But a Downing Street spokesperson said that decisions on which parts of the report will be made public were “a matter for Sue Gray and her team”.The spokesperson also confirmed that no inquiry was being launched by Downing Street into allegations of bullying of MPs by whips, saying only that evidence would be looked at “if it came forward”.Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said threats to withhold government funding were “completely unacceptable” and ministers need to “get to the bottom” of Mr Wragg’s assertion.But he said he had not come across such activities in his 12 years as an MP and thought it “very unlikely” to be true.No 10’s refusal to mount an inquiry may encourage rebel Tories to publish evidence which they have been gathering of what they regard as unacceptable behaviour by whips.One of those involved in discussions among red wall MPs who entered parliament in 2019 told The Independent: “There is an increasing level of evidence that MPs have collated in order to be able to share if it becomes necessary to do so.”Evidence which has been collected is reported to include a secretly recorded conversation with chief whip Mark Spencer as well as text messages sent to MPs thought to be preparing to send letters of no confidence letters.Mr Wragg said on Thursday that the PM’s Conservative critics were receiving threats to “withdraw investments” from constituencies, as well as “intimidation” from No 10 staff.And Christian Wakeford, the Bury South MP who defected from the Tories to Labour, said he was told funding for a new school in his constituency would be withheld if he did not vote with the government over free school meals.In its letter to the prime minister, the Good Law Project demanded details of any complaints made by MPs, as well as confirmation that the allegations are being investigated.The campaign group’s director Jo Maugham said: “What these reports suggest is that public money will be held back from left-behind communities unless their MP votes to overlook sleaze or scrap school meals. That’s not levelling up; it sounds much more like blackmail to me.“We don’t think it’s lawful – it may even be criminal – and it’s certainly unfair. So we are taking legal action to benefit left-behind communities.”Wales’s first minister Mark Drakeford said “history is catching up” with the prime minister.“This is a government that at the moment is simply not capable of doing the ordinary business of government in a competent and sensible way because it is overwhelmed by the headlines that surround dreadful events that went on in Downing Street,” he said.Eminent historian Peter Hennessy said that Mr Johnson’s response to the party allegations had displayed “in technicolour” the fact that he has “more disdain for the constitution” than any other PM in modern history.Prof Hennessy told Prospect magazine: “He hasn’t got a single feel for either proper behaviour, proper procedure, not a single nerve end. He has got no sense of the restraints you need to make this work.”Former cabinet minister Rory Stewart said he expected the Gray report to be “the last nail in the coffin” for Mr Johnson. Even if he survived for a few more months, he will be “badly wounded” and unable to regain credibility, said Stewart, who fought Johnson for the Conservative leadership in 2019.“He was manifestly unsuited to be prime minister from the beginning, so it’s very, very disturbing that a great country like Britain should have chosen somebody so unsuitable for the role,” the former international development secretary told Sky News. More

Will he stay or will he go? As “partygate” rumbles on, Boris Johnson’s future as PM continues to hang in the balance.To round off the week that saw a Tory MP defect to Labour, others plot to overthrow him and former cabinet colleague David Davis telling him “in the name of God, go”, The Independent’s chief political commentator John Rentoul answered reader questions on the PM’s future.During an ‘Ask Me Anything’, Rentoul said: “What is significant about the past few weeks is that large numbers of voters who liked him have now gone off him. Many of them feel strongly, and that has been reflected in MPs’ emails – to which they are acutely sensitive (probably too much so). That is why I think Tory MPs will get rid of him, even though it is only two years since he delivered a huge election victory and Brexit.”What is the most likely road map for Boris Johnson’s departure?It is hard to predict, and I have taken a risk in making my prediction [Tory MPs should ditch Boris Johnson and put Rishi Sunak in No 10 as soon as they can], but I think the route is the 54 letters asking for a vote of confidence, which I think Johnson will lose – because in a secret ballot enough Tory MPs will calculate that he is unlikely to recover sufficient popularity to win the next election, AND that if they leave him in office he may do such damage to the party that switching leader later may not save them.You are right, I think, that Johnson will not go quietly. Nor I think is he likely to go for the Blair tactic of promising to go at some point. So if he survives a vote of confidence, it will be a long damaging struggle, which I think he would be likely to lose before the next election.If the 54 letters don’t materialise, of course, then his chances are much better. Once Tory MPs realise that other Tory MPs are cowards, they will have in effect have decided to let him have two years to try to recover the situation.If the May booze up in the No 10 garden was a business meeting, what was Carrie Johnson doing there?The legal situation is more complicated than some of the prime minister’s critics allow. Carrie Johnson was allowed to be in the garden of her home, and the PM might have been allowed to attend a gathering there if it was “reasonably necessary for work”. Mixing the two exemptions from the requirement to stay at home may seem to be stretching the law, but the situation in Downing Street is unusual.How has Rishi Sunak at Number 11 avoided any of the blame for these Covid breaches?I think The Times reported one alleged gathering in the Treasury (25 November 2020) to celebrate completing the Autumn Spending Review, and there have been questions asked about when Sunak or his staff were ever working in No 11 while carousing was going on next door or in the garden. But one of Sunak’s strong personal defences is that he doesn’t drink.Do you think the Met’s refusal to investigate any of this is cutting through with the public as a cover-up?Yes, I think it is. Opinion polls suggest people think that the police should investigate; and a focus group I heard wanted politicians to be fined if they had broken lockdown laws. On the other hand, most members of that focus group were not particularly angry with Johnson; they were more concerned that he shouldn’t be distracted from focusing on the NHS and energy bills.Is it a very cunning plan by the Labour Party to accept a defecting Tory MP, which in turn solidifies support for Johnson amongst remaining Conservative MPs? And makes it more likely they would be fighting Johnson at the next election rather than Sunak. Or is that just too cunning by half?That is too cunning by half, I think. Keir Starmer was right to say in a recent interview that he can only fight the opponent in front of him. Labour can do things at the edges, such as spending some time attacking Rishi Sunak, and the really important thing – which Labour failed to do when Thatcher fell in 1990 – is to change approach to match the change of opponent. But no, I don’t think Labour even realised that Christian Wakeford’s defection would temporarily unite the Tories in the Commons – an MP’s defection is the hard currency of politics; it is so valuable to receiving party that it cannot risk playing games with it.Do you think there is any possibility that Johnson deep down knows that the game is up and that part of him is beginning to consider what happens to him after being PM? (I partly ask this as it seems to me he must be aware that more revelations and evidence are very likely to emerge shortly.)I remember a Labour MP once said that they saw Johnson coming towards them, muttering to himself as if he were composing three columns at once in his head: I think he has a wide, chaotic, semi-compartmentalised personality, capable of thinking several things at the same time. All prime ministers fear that they are about to be turfed out of office at any time, and I’m sure he thinks vaguely about finishing his book on Shakespeare and about his post-PM career, but most of his mind is probably focused on fighting to hold on to office for as long as possible.As for more evidence of wrongdoing, I think that if his most committed opponents had it, they would use it. I do not believe in the idea of some great plot to drip-drip information into the public domain until he’s gone. Many of the stories have seeped out in a chaotic, disorganised way, often triggered by other leaks, or by official denials.Although there is clearly a lot of discontent with Boris, do you think that the potential successors have the desire to become PM right now? There are so many massive hurdles to overcome. If no-one wants the poisoned chalice, could Boris survive?Ideally, most Tory MPs and most candidates for the succession would rather wait until next year, when the 2024 election is imminent and the situation is clearer. But Tory MPs know that they may not get another chance – or at least, not in such potentially favourable circumstances – to change leader, and that if they leave Johnson in power he might seriously damage the Tory brand.And Rishi Sunak faces the classic front runner’s dilemma: for him, most of the risks of delay are on the downside. He is currently the most popular politician in the country, among Tory members and among Tory MPs. For him, things can only get worse, especially given the outlook for inflation, energy prices and taxes. Sunak must want to take the chance when he can, but he cannot do more to bring it about than a day trip to Ilfracombe while the PM is defending himself in the Commons, because the party members have not yet given up on Johnson, and will resent any more overt show of disloyalty.What intrigues me most is the timing of the drip-feed of leaks of the ‘partygate’ scandal. Who or what is driving this?This is a very good question, which I answered in part already. I don’t think there is an orchestrated campaign beyond what we know, which is that Dominic Cummings, the PM’s former chief adviser, is determined to bring down his former boss. But Cummings did his best last May, when he gave evidence (for seven hours) to the joint select committee about what he thought was Johnson’s mishandling of the pandemic and his “possibly illegal” plan to have Tory donors pay to refurbish the Downing Street flat.But you are right to ask why there was such a long delay between the 2020 Christmas parties in No 10 and the reports, first in The Mirror on 1 December 2021. (All that time Allegra Stratton, the PM’s former spokesperson, knew there was a video of her embarrassing answers about a Christmas party at a rehearsal for a TV news briefing.)I think the explanation is that civil servants don’t leak unless they think a politician has done something seriously wrong: in these cases most of the people who organised and attended these “work events” were civil servants and special advisers; they may not have thought they did anything wrong, or were uncertain.But once the stories started to come out, a kind of chain reaction happened.These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by John Rentoul at 1pm on Friday 21 January. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.Do you have any topics you’d like to see an expert host an ‘Ask Me Anything’ on? Let us know your suggestions in the comments below. More