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    Making Michael Gove Tory leader would hand Labour 18-point lead, poll finds

    Ditching Boris Johnson as Tory leader and replacing him with Michael Gove would hand Labour an 18-point poll lead, a new survey has found. Polling conducted by Opinium asked people how they would vote if different people led the Conservative party – and found there was no magic bullet to restoring lost support for the government.As a baseline, Opinium gave Labour a 7-point lead over the Tories if no leader was named, with the gap widening to 12-points if Boris Johnson’s name was explicitly mentioned.The polling found that replacing Mr Johnson with chancellor Rishi Sunak would have the most positive effect on Tory support, cutting the lead to just three points.But other Tories polled even worse than Mr Johnson. Liz Truss, sometimes seen as a future leader, would give Labour a 16-point lead and swell support for Keir Starmer’s party to a massive 43 per cent.The foreign secretary has a reputation as an ardent free marketer and spent the last few years negotiating controversial trade deals, before being promoting to foreign secretary. Making Michael Gove leader meanwhile would have the most negative effect on Tory numbers, cutting the governing party’s vote share down to 23 per cent, a full 18-points behind Labour.Mr Gove was intensely unpopular as education secretary under the coalition government, and has since entered the public consciousness for his role in the Brexit campaign, as well as his historic use of drugs. Recently he has focused on the environment and “levelling up” – activities which so far appear to have won him little love from the public.There is some hope for the Tories, however, as hypothetical polling figures are notoriously unreliable, and represent a snap-shot of what voters believe they would do under circumstances that do not yet exist. But they represent the baseline scenario for any future leader before they have laid out their stall.The government has haemorrhaged support in recent months after high-profile rows over sleaze, corruption, and rule-breaking dominated the news agenda – taking Tory support consistently below its 40 per cent floor for the first time since the European Parliament elections. More

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    No plans to cut Covid isolation period to five days, government minister says

    There are no “current” plans to cut the Covid isolation period from 10 to five days, a government minister has said.Chloe Smith said the current rules in the UK for isolation were “the right” approach – following a move in the United States to relax isolation. “There are no current plans in England to change that period,” she told BBC Breakfast.”Of course, we have actually only recently taken it down from 10 to seven, and we want to look at that – we want to make sure that that is working as we believe it ought to.”We think the current period, therefore, is the right one, so we haven’t any plans to change that further.”In the US people can leave home after just give days providing they have no symptoms and wear a mask around other people. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the move was “motivated by science” and aimed at keeping “society functioning”.Under the current UK restrictions people must self-isolate for 10 days if they test positive, though this period can be cut to seven if they can take a negative lateral flow test on days six and seven.A record case surge was reported in the UK on Tuesday, sparking fears of a so-called “pingdemic”. Previous waves of Covid infections have seen so many people forced to isolate that staff shortages hit critical parts of the economy. UKHospitality chief Kate Nicholls has urged ministers to “review and act on the latest CDC data to keep the economy moving, address staff concerns in education and health and avoid punitive restrictions and lockdown.”But shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth said the government should follow the advice of its scientists and avoid “rushing” into emulating the United States. The latest data on NHS staff absences is set to be published on Friday, but as of 17 December around 20,000 people working in England’s health service were off work due to Covid – up from around 13,000 a week earlier. More

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    Political commentator John Rentoul hosts ‘ask me anything’ on what 2022 holds for Boris Johnson

    The prime minister has ended the year beset by a sea of troubles, and the opinion polls have turned against him. Labour has taken a significant lead in voting intentions; the voters say they would prefer Keir Starmer as prime minister; and the Conservatives have lost their advantage as the party trusted to handle the economy. Worse, one poll suggests that Tory MPs would save their seats if they dumped Boris Johnson and installed Rishi Sunak as party leader, and a survey of Tory party members put Mr Johnson at the bottom of the cabinet league table of satisfaction ratings. The explanation for the prime minister’s poor showing, according to Paul Goodman, editor of Conservative Home, which runs the survey of Tory members: “Parties, competence, Covid restrictions, Paterson, taxes and net zero, not necessarily in that order.” Possibly in a different order and with the exception of Covid restrictions and net zero, those are the main reasons for Mr Johnson’s unpopularity with the wider public. What, then, does the new year hold? Will Mr Johnson bounce back, or will he sink further into the trough of the mid-term blues? Join me on Wednesday for an “Ask Me Anything” online event to discuss the prime minister’s prospects. On the positive side, Mr Johnson seems to have negotiated the minefield of coronavirus restrictions over Christmas and the New Year. He resisted pressure from the government’s scientific advisers (and from public opinion) to impose further measures to limit social mixing, by allowing the entire cabinet to own the decision in a long Zoom meeting before Christmas. The evidence of hospitalisations since then suggests that this was a reasonable policy, and it may earn Mr Johnson some grudging credit both from the public and from Tory backbenchers, 101 of whom rebelled against the modest restrictions imposed before Christmas. However, even if there is relief that the Omicron wave of the virus may not be as dangerous as feared, attention will immediately turn to the state of the NHS in dealing with the huge backlog of non-Covid cases. And beyond that to the host of problems crowding in on the government. On 1 January new customs checks come in on goods travelling between the UK and the EU, with many observers warning that businesses are not ready. At some point Sue Gray, the senior civil servant, will report on whether parties in Downing Street last year broke lockdown rules. The price of natural gas has gone through the roof and will eventually have to be borne by consumers. The prime minister’s main defence is that the next election is still probably two and a half years away – but that is more likely to be two and a half years for more things to go wrong than for things to start going right. If you have a question about what politics holds for the new year, submit it now, or when I join you live at 4pm on Wednesday 29 December for an “Ask Me Anything” event.To get involved all you have to do is register to submit your question in the comments below.If you’re not already a member, click “sign up” in the comments box to leave your question. Don’t worry if you can’t see your question – they may be hidden until I join the conversation to answer them. Then join us live on this page at 4pm as I tackle as many questions as I can. More

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    UK Covid cases rise by record 129,471 in 24 hours as Omicron spreads

    Covid-19 cases have soared by their highest number since the start of the pandemic as the Omicron variant continues to spread throughout the UK.The latest figures released by the government show 129,471 new cases in the 24 hours to 9am on Tuesday, which is a new daily record.The government also said a further 18 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19. It warned that the data was incomplete due to the holidays, and did not include figures for Scotland or Northern Ireland.The Omicron variant is thought by scientists to be milder than previous incarnations of the virus, but it is not clear exactly to what extent – or how many of the record number of people being infected will end up in hospital or dying.Health secretary Sajid Javid said on Monday that there would be no new social distancing or lockdown restrictions before the new year, after also declining to impose any measures ahead of Christmas. Speaking on Tuesday after the new numbers were released, Daisy Cooper, the Liberal Democrats’ health spokesperson, said the government should take the figures seriously.“With Covid cases reaching record highs, it is clear that Omicron still poses a huge collective threat. High numbers of cases and people self-isolating will likely disrupt almost every sector, including our NHS, care workers and schools,” she said. “The Conservatives must take this seriously. As well as continuing to roll out the booster programme, and do more to vaccinate the unvaccinated, it must put an air purifier in every classroom in England so our schools can open – and stay open – safely. “The government must also step up support for businesses, who are already feeling the impact on their trade.”Environment secretary George Eustice said that the government is keeping the level of Covid hospital admissions under “very close review”.Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: “This is a disease that’s not going away; the infection is not going away, although we’re not going to see [such] severe disease for much longer.“Ultimately, we’re going to have to let people who are positive with Covid go about their normal lives, as they would do with any other cold. And so, at some point, we’ve got to relax this.“If the self-isolation rules are what’s making the pain associated with Covid, then we need to do that perhaps sooner rather than later. Maybe not quite just yet.”Meanwhile, virologist Dr Sarah Pitt has called for “a few measures” to curb the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.The microbiology lecturer said that the “seriously infectious virus” was “putting some people very seriously in hospital, and some people are dying”. More

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    Government departments spent more than £14m on hire cars in 2021

    Government departments have spent more than £14.2 million on hire cars for staff this year despite a public sector pay freeze, an investigation has revealed.In particular, the Ministry of Defence has come under fire for “wasting” taxpayers money after it was revealed it spent almost £13 million on hire cars for staff in 2021.The next highest figure was from the Department of Transport, which spent more than £1.1 million on hire cars for staff. Other government departments spent up to tens of thousands of pounds.The figures, revealed by a Freedom of Information (FoI) request by the PA news agency, showed the MoD spent £12,960,612 on hire cars through the Phoenix II vehicle contract in the current calendar year up to November 30. The figure includes VAT but excludes fuel and other costs, it said.The Phoenix II contract covers all the so-called Top Level Budget areas of the MoD, including Land Forces, Air Command, Defence Equipment and Support, Joint Forces Command, Navy Command, Head Offices and Corporate Services and Defence Infrastructure Organisation.The MoD fleet covered by the Phoenix II contract provides a mixture of leased and rental vehicles including cars, minibuses, coaches, vans and freight transport, as well as specialist vehicles ranging from dog vans to horse ambulances to mountain rescue vehicles.Reacting to the revelation, Unite’s acting national officer for defence staff, Caren Evans, called the figure “excessive” and was representative of how “inefficient the MoD is”.She said: “This is an entirely excessive figure, it demonstrates how hugely inefficient the MoD is and is exceptionally poor value for money for taxpayers.”This revelation of grandiose spending on hired vehicles by the MoD is a kick in teeth for civilian MoD staff who have experienced a pay freeze this year and are now struggling to make ends meet due to the cost of living crisis in the UK.”The money spent on hiring cars could and should have been better spent on giving MoD workers a much-needed pay rise.”In his 2020 spending review, Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced that firefighters, teachers, police, members of the armed forces, civil servants, and council and government agency staff would have pay rises “paused” to reduce expenditure.Shadow defence secretary John Healey added: “The Defence Department has blown millions of pounds on taxis at the same time as cutting Army numbers and freezing forces’ pay.”There’s so much waste in MoD budgets and ministers have got no grip on the problems. This Tory waste is letting down frontline forces and taxpayers.”The MoD justified its spend on hired vehicles as its staff “have to travel to locations that are not always accessible with public transport,” and said it is “committed to delivering value for money.”A spokesperson for the MoD said: “As a large organisation with out-of-town sites across the UK and bases all over the world, our staff have to travel to locations that are not always accessible with public transport and often a lease/hire car or taxi is the most efficient and cost-effective way to travel.”We are committed to delivering value for money. Our current contract for non-operational vehicles aims to deliver savings of around £152 million over six years.”It added that all travel by MoD civil servants and military personnel must be confirmed as essential and authorised by a manager to ensure the request is valid and represents value for money.The Department for Transport and its Executive Agencies, which include Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA), Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA), Vehicle Certification Agency (VCA) and the Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA), spent more than £1.1 million on hire vehicles between January and October.It spent a total of £1,105,126 in the UK and overseas in this period, with the majority of spend incurred by the DVSA, for driving examiners who may need to switch locations as to where they are carrying out tests at short notice.It said: “Although DVSA is aware of booking patterns and volumes and aims to provide an appropriate number of staff in each location to meet forecasted volumes, there are always going to be cases (on a daily basis) where DVSA needs to move staff from their ‘home’ test centre to an alternative centre to meet increased customer demand and to cover short notice absences.”The Departmental travel policy states that hire cars can be used rather than personal cars if this is more cost effective.”Other departments spent tens of thousands of pounds on hire cars for staff, including the Cabinet Office and the Department for Education, which spent £48,645.80 (excluding VAT) and £22,840 between April and October respectively.The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) spent £76,262 from April to October. The department said hire cars were needed by Defra for accessing rural locations for fieldwork.Between January and October, the Department for International Trade spent £36,339 both in the UK and overseas, and the Treasury spent £16,392.42, saying it included additional costs such as petrol, parking, charges for Congestion, Low Emissions Zone (LEZ) and Dartford Bridge.Meanwhile, the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said it had not spent any money on private hire cars for its staff this year while the Attorney General’s office spent just £65.50.Additional reporting by Press Association More

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    Irish diplomats judged Boris Johnson to have ‘naive’ views on Northern Ireland, declassified papers show

    Irish diplomats judged Boris Johnson to have “naive” views on Northern Ireland when he worked as a journalist in the 1990s, declassified papers show. After a lunch with Johnson in 1995, one Irish embassy official presciently reported back to Dublin that the 31-year-old journalist, who at the time wrote a column for The Daily Telegraph, was very much a “Eurosceptic”.The papers, which were released to Ireland’s state archive by its Department of Foreign Affairs, also suggest that the future prime minister was already close to John Major’s government and in the loop on No 10 announcements before they were made.Colin Wrafter, press attache at the Irish embassy in London, had gone for lunch with Johnson on 24 April 1995 – though no details of the venue are included. Giving an assessment of the high-profile journalist, the diplomatic memo said: “His own politics would be Thatcherite and Eurosceptic, but he has, he told me, incurred the wrath of the editor of The Daily Telegraph, Charles Moore, for a piece in The Spectator in February which argued that the [Northern Ireland] framework documents were deliberately pitched by the British in the nationalist direction so as to ensure that a final settlement would be much more sensitive to unionist concerns.“He has written approvingly – if naively – of the Northern Ireland Tories in his weekly column in The Daily Telegraph. Our lunch took place before the announcement by the British government that it would commence ministerial talks with Sinn Fein.“It says something for the standing of The Daily Telegraph that he knew what the British government would announce that afternoon, and that his [press] lobby colleague, Phil Johnson, had time to travel to Belfast for Minister Ancram’s briefing at 5pm.”Apparently viewing the then journalist as a reliable authority on government thinking, Wrafter added: “Boris made one remark of which you may wish to be aware – the prime minister is determined to proceed with the peace process at a pace just a little on the right side of ‘stalling’.“In this he was reflecting a view widely held by political journalists in Westminster.“While the prime minister wants history to acknowledge his role in helping to bring about peace in the north, he is determined to move cautiously in order to avoid the risk of exposing himself to Tory backbench unrest.”Summing up Johnson’s role, the diplomat noted that his contact was “previously Brussels correspondent for The Daily Telegraph and was recalled to London to succeed Simon Heffer at The Spectator when the latter was made deputy editor at The Daily Telegraph”.Johnson would go on to become editor of The Spectator in 1999, and would be elected to parliament for the seat of Henley at the 2001 general election. More

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    UK’s mismatched rules risk spreading Covid over new year, warns virologist

    A leading virologist has warned that the UK’s mismatched Covid restrictions risk spreading the virus further, after the government announced there will be no new measures in England before the new year.University of Brighton microbiology lecturer Dr Sarah Pitt said it did not make sense for the four nations to have different coronavirus rules as the Omicron variant infects record numbers of people every day.She told LBC Radio: “If people can’t go to a New Year’s Eve party in Wales or Scotland, they’ll just tip over the borders into England, won’t they, thus potentially taking the virus and spreading it … and then taking it back home.“So it makes sense to have one set of measures across the whole country and I think it does make sense to have some measures to try and stop the spread of the virus at this point.”She added: “I know personally more people who’ve been off sick with Covid in the last month than the whole of the pandemic put together.“So although there is a balance between the economy and health, they’re not mutually exclusive – it’s not one or the other.“We’ve actually got to take the virus seriously, and I’m not talking about full lockdowns, I’m just talking about a few measures for some things to just try and stop the spread of this really horrible, nasty virus, just at this moment.”On Monday, New Year’s parties were given the green light as ministers announced there will be no new coronavirus restrictions imposed before the end of 2021.The decision announced by Sajid Javid, the health secretary, leaves England out of step with the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, which have all brought in new post-Christmas controls.Environment Secretary George Eustice said that the early evidence suggested Omicron was not leading to a big increase in hospital admissions, as happened in previous waves.But some scientists have expressed concern about the lack of new restrictions following the surge in Covid cases.Government figures showed there were a record 113,628 new Covid cases in England on Christmas Day, with 1,281 new Covid-19 hospital admissions – up 74 per cent week on week and the highest number since 16 February.Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, suggested people with Covid should be allowed to “go about their normal lives” as they would with a common cold.Asked on BBC Breakfast about NHS staff shortages due to workers having to isolate, he said: “This is a disease that’s not going away, the infection is not going away, although we’re not going to see as severe disease for much longer.“Ultimately, we’re going to have to let people who are positive with Covid go about their normal lives as they would do with any other cold. And so, at some point, we’ve got to relax this.“If the self-isolation rules are what’s making the pain associated with Covid, then we need to do that perhaps sooner rather than later. Maybe not quite just yet.” More

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    When will Boris Johnson give his next Covid announcement?

    Boris Johnson has already been forced to introduce social restrictions to combat the new Omicron variant of coronavirus and rocketing infection numbers this month could see him forced to tighten them still further in the days after Christmas.The prime minister has already brought back mandatory mask-wearing on public transport and in shops, cinemas, theatres and places of worship, asked citizens to work from home where possible and made an NHS Covid Pass or negative lateral flow test a necessary requirement for entry to crowded venues and events involving mass gatherings.He pledged not to introduce further measures before the Christmas weekend but fears persist they may yet be needed to beat back Omicron, with government scientific advisers pushing for new restrictions as soon as possible to stop the spread and meeting opposition from senior Cabinet ministers reluctant to jeopardise the economy and impose further constraints on public freedom.The prime minister also said he will “reserve the possibility” of a tighter clampdown and is understood to be waiting for more data on Omicron to become available before he makes a decision, a stance that has seen him accused of “dithering” by opponents. The usual statistical update will take place this afternoon and we can expect further announcements from the prime minister in the coming days, as the Omicron situation develops.The health secretary has said no further coronavirus restrictions will be introduced in England before the new year after ministers reviewed the latest data.Giving the update on Monday, Sajid Javid said “people should remain cautious” and urged those marking the start of 2022 to consider testing themselves beforehand and to celebrate outside.Mr Javid told broadcasters: “We look at the data on a daily basis – that hasn’t changed over the Christmas period.“But there will be no further measures before the new year. Of course, people should remain cautious as we approach New Year’s celebrations.”The precise characteristics of the new strain of the virus are still not clear at this early stage in its development, although it is feared it may soon usurp the Delta variant as the dominant strain of Covid-19 given its high transmissibility.Mr Johnson recently warned the public that a “tidal wave” of infections could break on these shores unless people adhere to the new measures, exercise extreme caution and get their vaccine booster jab as a matter of urgency.The rollout of third shots is being greatly expanded to address the Omicron threat, with the aim of offering one to all over-18s by the end of December, bringing forward that deadline by a month and placing further pressure on medical professionals across the country in the process.That decision came in response to findings by the UK Health Security Agency indicating that two jabs do not offer strong protection against symptomatic infection from Omicron, with the current suite of vaccines less effective against it than they were against Delta.However, that same analysis also concluded that those who had received a booster remained up to 70 per cent protected, underlining the importance of getting a third shot as soon as possible.The UK has recorded more than 74,000 confirmed cases of the strain so far and at least 18 deaths.London mayor Sadiq Khan has declared a major incident over the extent of the Omicron outbreak in the capital while NHS England has announced a return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, level four national incident, meaning that the health service’s response will be coordinated as a national effort, rather than led by individual trusts.Just 56.1 per cent of British adults have had their booster injection so far, although demand is high so that figure should continue to climb rapidly as more people make an appointment and roll up their sleeves. More