UK Politics

The possibility that the NHS could be overwhelmed due to the rise of the omicron variant of Covid is “one of the more likely things” to happen, a leading government scientist has said.Professor Graham Medley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said he was worried the number of people being admitted to hospital could “get very large” if omicron infections continue to soar and spill into older age groups.Pressed on the possibility of the NHS being overwhelmed next month, the expert told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I think so, there is that possibility.”Prof Medley added: “It’s very hard to be certain about these things. You certainly can’t put a risk or probability on them – but that is one of the more likely things that could happen.”England’s chief medical office Professor Chris Whitty has warned a “significant increase in hospitalisations” is coming from omicron, with Boris Johnson telling his ministers to expect a “huge spike” in infections.UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) chief Jenny Harries warned on Wednesday that omicron was “probably the most significant threat we’ve had since the start of the pandemic” and the NHS could be in “serious peril” because of the new wave.Prof Medley said omicron would likely cause Covid case numbers to go beyond the peak of seen last winter. “We’re probably now at the level that we have been at the past, sort of back in January, and it does look as though it’s going to continue beyond that and go over it.”The Sage expert, who was speaking in a personal capacity, said there was not currently any good information on the severity of omicron, but added: “The fact that we are much more immune than we were generally means that the virus will appear to be much less severe.”Prof Medley, who is also chair of the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), said it was a “million-dollar question” over how this would affect the health service.But he warned there could soon be up to 2,000 hospitalisations a day – more than the number seen at the height of the delta variant outbreak. Asked if hospitals could end up overwhelmed, he said: “I think that that is a very real possibility.”Prof Medley said: “If the numbers of infections increasing continues in the way that it has done, and it spills out into older age groups, then we could see numbers of people being admitted to hospital getting very large and certainly going over the 1,000 – maybe up to 2,000 a day – that we’ve managed to keep the delta variant below.”The expert said there have been around 800 hospital admissions per day for the past five months but “if we’d had all those in one month then … the NHS would have been extremely taxed”. He added: “And that is the fear – that we end up with the next four months of the epidemic in one month.”Meanwhile, Professor Tim Spector, who helped found the Covid Zoe app, said Covid cases in London are accelerating more than was seen during the very first wave of the virus.He told the Today programme the “majority of symptoms” of the omicron variant are like a common cold, including headaches, sore throat, runny nose, fatigue and sneezing. “In London, where Covid is increasing rapidly, it’s far more likely to be Covid than it is to be a cold.”On Tuesday evening, new restrictions were approved in parliament for face coverings at more indoor spaces in England and the introduction of NHS Covid passes for nightclubs and large venues.In Scotland, people have been urged to limit their mixing by socialising with only up to two other households indoors, while in Northern Ireland, politicians backed mandatory Covid certification for access to nightclubs, pubs, restaurants and other licensed premises. More

Parliament will be recalled if there is a need for any further Covid restrictions over the Christmas holidays, Grant Shapps has insisted.The transport secretary said, however, that he hoped the “plan B” measures – approved last night by MPs despite almost 100 Tories rebelling – will “see us through to the New Year”.“The one thing I can say for certain is if we did need to do anything else Parliament would be recalled too in order to vote on doing that — it wouldn’t just be an automated thing,” he added, after the demand was made by backbench Tory MPs.In a separate interview, the cabinet minister also said he believed “with some confidence” that no further Covid restrictions will be required in England before Christmas.“We want people to be able to enjoy Christmas this year. We are certainly in a better position than we were this time last year. We want people to be sensible but to enjoy their Christmas,” he told Sky News.“I think that, with some confidence, that we can say that people are going to be able to enjoy their Christmas get-together with their friends and families with only what has already been (announced).”However, speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Graham Medley, a professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said Covid hospital admissions could reach 2,000 a day.“Most of the infections at the moment are in young adults, so these are people who are far less likely to need hospital treatment in any case,” he said.“But in the past, in previous waves, we’ve seen that move out into more older and more vulnerable generations and there’s no reason to suspect that won’t happen during this wave. And then the numbers of people who end up in hospital is some combination of when people get infected, their vaccination status, as well as what Omicron is doing.The member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) added: “I think it is a very real possibility that if the numbers of infections increasing continues in the way that it has done and it spills out into older age groups than we could see the number of people being omitted to hospital getting very large and certainly going over the thousand, maybe up to 2,000 a day.”Mr Shapps’ comments came after Boris Johnson suffered a revolt of almost 100 Tory MPs as the government introduced “plan B” measures, including the extension of the mandatory use of face masks and Covid passes for large venues, on Tuesday evening.During the debate, the former Conservative chief whip Mark Harper also pressed Sajid Javid, the health secretary, to commit to giving MPs a say in the event of further restrictions being brought in during recess.The House of Commons is scheduled to stop for Christmas at the close of business on Thursday and return on January 5.Mr Harper asked: “Is he able now at the despatch box to commit that if the government were to take further measures to deal with omicron during the recess, that the government would recall the House of Commons so that we’re able to have all of the evidence and participate in taking those decisions on behalf of the constituents we represent?”Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting told MPs he would back the move and joked he and a Labour frontbench colleague have already agreed who will bring the Christmas dinner and who will provide the pudding for any festive sitting. More

A former Tory mayoral candidate has quit as chair of a police and crime committee after allegations emerged that he attended a Christmas party last year when London was under tier 2 Covid restrictions.Shaun Bailey’s team organised the gathering in the basement of the Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) in December 2020.Tier 2 restrictions meant that separate households were not allowed to mix in order to limit the spread of the virus.Four of Mr Bailey’s campaign staffers were disciplined last week by CCHQ for holding the “raucous” event.Since then, calls for Mr Bailey to step down had intensified.Mr Bailey, who has yet to comment, has now quit as chair but remains a member of the committee and the London Assembly.His resignation came shortly before The Mirror published a photograph of him and about 23 staff at a party in CCHQ with drinks and a buffet.A spokesperson for the Greater London Authority Conservatives said Mr Bailey stepped down to prevent the “unauthorised social gathering” distracting from the committee’s work of holding Labour Mayor of London Sadiq Khan to account.An email from the Assembly, seen by news website MyLondon, says that City Hall Conservative leader Susan Hall AM will take over as interim chair.Meanwhile, No 10 staff who stayed in Downing Street to take part in a Christmas quiz were told to “go out the back”, it has been alleged.The Mirror reported that the quiz on 15 December – which the PM Boris Johnson helped to host – had been held virtually, but with many taking part from the office. London was in tier 2 at the time of this event too.The newspaper quoted a source who said many staff were huddled by computers in their Downing Street offices, conferring on questions and drinking alcohol while the quiz was taking place. An image that had been published by the Sunday Mirror showed Mr Johnson flanked by colleagues – one draped in tinsel and another wearing a Santa hat – in the No 10 library.No 10 previously said that Downing Street staff were “often required to be in the office to work on the pandemic response” during the various lockdowns, and therefore “those who were in the office for work may have attended virtually from their desks”.But the Mirror said a message sent by No 10’s head of HR on the night advised that those who had stayed behind to take part “go out the back” when they left.A government spokesperson said: “Given there is an ongoing review, it would be inappropriate to comment while that is ongoing.”Cabinet secretary Simon Case is set to investigate alleged gatherings or parties held in government buildings during Covid restrictions. More

Boris Johnson has been warned that a leadership challenge is “on the cards” in the New Year after 99 Conservative MPs defied him over Plan B Covid restrictions in the largest rebellion of his premiership.The prime minister was forced to rely on the votes of Labour MPs to win Commons approval for the introduction of Covid passes at nightclubs and sports and entertainment venues, which comes into effect in England on Wednesday.Sir Keir Starmer said the vote was a “very significant blow to the already damaged authority of the prime minister”, showing he was “too weak to discharge the basic functions of government”. Asked whether he would call on Johnson to resign, Starmer said: “The prime minister needs to take a long, hard look at himself and ask himself whether he has the authority to take this country through the pandemic. This is a very significant blow for him.”A senior member of the influential Tory backbench 1922 Committee, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, said that a leadership challenge in the New Year was “on the cards” unless the prime minister unites the party by delivering a “major change in the way he does things”.And Former chief whip Mark Harper called on Mr Johnson to listen to the “clear message” sent by Conservative MPs who have lost trust in his leadership and want a change of approach.Tory discontent with the PM’s performance will be whipped up further if the party fails to retain its stronghold seat of North Shropshire in a by-election on Thursday in which Liberal Democrats believe they are “on the knife-edge” of a historic victory.The prime minister  and health secretary Sajid Javid pulled out all the stops in a failed bid to limit the size of the backbench revolt, with Mr Johnson speaking personally to MPs and addressing a meeting of the 1922 Committee in the minutes before the crucial vote.In a sombre speech, Mr Johnson told Tory backbenchers that he wanted the country to be “as free as we can possibly be” but had “absolutely no choice” but to introduce new restrictions in the face of scientific advice that omicron will become the dominant strain of Covid in the UK within days.The PM promised to give MPs a say if he had to impose further and tougher measures, and indicated that he could recall parliament if rising case numbers forced him to act during the House of Commons’ Christmas break.And chief medical officer Chris Whitty gave MPs a chilling briefing, warning of a “significant increase” in omicron patients entering hospital over the Christmas period due to the extreme transmissibility of the variant, which is already believed to be infecting 200,000 people a day.But few would-be rebels appear to have been won over by the PM’s pleas, with Mr Harper saying that the rebellion was far larger than had been expected.A series of recent issues, from the botched attempt to save Owen Paterson from punishment for sleaze to the row over the Downing Street Christmas party, had been “very damaging” for the PM, said the former chief whip, who challenged Mr Johnson for the leadership in 2019.“Conservative MPs have sent the prime minister a message,” said Mr Harper. “The right thing to do is for the prime minister to listen, to do things differently and better.”He warned that parliament must be recalled if any further measures were being considered. Sir Geoffrey warned that disunity would put the Tories at risk of losing the next election, adding: “The prime minister has got to now be in some danger, and he has got to realise that. If he realises he has got it wrong and comes back in the New Year and does things in a different way and consults the party more, then we have a good chance of uniting.“But if that doesn’t happen, then we are in trouble.”And 1922 vice-chair Sir Charles Walker said Mr Johnson must respond to the “cry of pain” from his party, warning: “This is a very, very specific line being drawn in the sand now and I think the prime minister and his team need to listen.”Some 38 Tories rebelled against the PM over the move to mandatory face-masks in indoor public venues including pubs, restaurants, theatres and places of worship, which passed the Commons by 441-41.But 97 voted against Covid passes – with another two acting as tellers for the No vote – as proposals to require proof of double-vaccination or a recent negative test for access to mass-audience venues like sports stadiums and music concerts passed by 369-126.Some 61 Tories rebelled over the introduction of mandatory vaccines for NHS staff as the measure passed by 385-100, with 22 Labour MPs also breaking their party’s whip on a move which is deeply unpopular with unions.Among Conservative rebels were a large group of Red Wall MPs who won northern and Midlands seats from Labour under Johnson’s leadership in 2019, including Brendan Clarke-Smith (Bassetlaw), Dehenna Davison (Bishop Auckland), James Grundy (Leigh), Mark Jenkinson (Workington), Mark Logan (Bolton North East), Robbie Moore (Keighley), Holly Mumby-Croft (Scunthorpe) and Christian Wakeford (Bury South).Also opposing the government was parliament’s newest MP, Louie French, less than two weeks after winning the Old Bexley and Sidcup seat in a by-election which saw the Tory vote share shrink.Mr Johnson was accused of “going into panic and emergency mode” by lockdown-sceptic Tories who insisted that passes and mandatory mask-wearing were a disproportionate response to a variant which has so far been linked to only 10 hospitalisations and one death in the UK.Ex-minister Sir Desmond Swayne said that the hospitality industry had become “collateral damage” in the effort to stop the spread of omicron.He said the government had created a “ministry of fear” in the shape of the UK Health Security Agency, whose name he said must have been dreamt up by “Stalinist minds” to increase public compliance with restrictions.“Get them out there twisting the fear button and by and large you will get the reaction you want – people will crave more enforcement and more fearsome measures to protect them from this great danger that is out there,” said Swayne.The government had “abandoned… any principle of social democracy, of liberal democracy, absolutely beyond anything we’ve endured in recent living memory”, he said.Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen said: “The most dangerous epidemic sweeping the world and sweeping our country is an epidemic of fear. It has seriously damaged mental health and in particularly damaged the mental health of our young people, it must end.” More

Dominic Raab’s plan to overhaul the Human Rights Act is “authoritarian” and will weaken protections for ordinary citizens, MPs have warned.The justice secretary has opened a public consultation to replace the law with a new “bill of rights”, which aims to stop foreign offenders asserting their rights to a family life to stop deportations.The proposals go far beyond an official review commissioned by the Conservative government, which made several recommendations but concluded that “the Human Rights Act works well and has benefited many”.It did not call for the law to be scrapped, and found there was an “overwhelming body of support for retaining” it.But Mr Raab told the House of Commons that his proposals would uphold the European Convention of Human Rights and “prevent misuse and distortion”.“We will replace section three of the Human Rights Act so that our courts are confined to judicial interpretation and are no longer – effectively, in practice – licensed by the act to amend or dilute the will of parliament expressed through statute,” he added.Steve Reed, Labour’s shadow justice secretary, called the announcement a “dead cat distraction tactic by a government who do not know how to fix the criminal justice system that they have broken”.“It is clearly not the Human Rights Act that is preventing foreign criminals from being deported; it is this incompetent Conservative government,” he added.“These proposals do nothing to deal with the severe failings in the criminal justice system, they repatriate no powers that are not already based here.”Labour MP Clive Lewis called the proposals “authoritarian”, as controversial bills that would criminalise protesters and asylum seekers go through parliament.“Today’s statement does nothing to strengthen human rights and everything to weaken them,” he said. “The Conservative Party is not a party of freedom, but one of growing authoritarianism.”Fellow Labour MP Barry Sheerman questioned where the drive for the changes was coming from, adding: “I cannot find it supported in the academic community, the legal community or the business community, and it is increasingly clear that it comes from the increasingly strident right wing of the Conservative Party.”Dominic Raab told to ‘eat his words’ for calling feminists ‘obnoxious bigots’Mr Raab said calls for reform “have come from our voters – the public”, but did not provide details.Labour MP Andy Slaughter said the government had “picked on easy targets” by focusing on foreign national offenders, but the law would “mainly disadvantage ordinary citizens of this country who are victims of unlawful decisions by the state”.Harriet Harman, chair of parliament’s Joint Committee on Human Rights, said previous Conservative pledges to overhaul the Human Rights Act had “ended up amounting to nothing”. “We shall see whether he is able to turn his concerns into anything of substance,” she told MPs.The government consultation claims that law-making powers have “shifted away from parliament towards the courts” and that “human rights inflation” has taken place.It proposes changing the law so that “certain categories of individual” are not able to assert their rights to a family life to stop deportations, and that remedies for abuses will be affected by the “claimant’s conduct”.Mr Raab said the change would “prevent serious criminals from relying on Article 8 and the right to family life to frustrate their deportation” in parliament, giving one example of a case dating back to 2008.The government also wants to make people bringing claims under human rights law apply for permission from courts first, meaning that they must have suffered “significant disadvantage” or demonstrate an “overriding public importance”.The consultation is asking for views on how to limit interference with the freedom of expression and formally recognise the right to trial by jury.Legal experts questioned the reasons for the proposals, and how they would be implemented.Barrister Schona Jolly QC said there was a “lack of evidence” to support the plans and that they could result in the UK losing more cases at the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.“Arguments for asserting democratic control are heavily tainted by the government’s approach to repressive and regressive bills, and consistent attempts to bypass scrutiny and accountability in parliament,” she wrote on Twitter.Human rights barrister Adam Wagner questioned how the proposals to restrict foreign offenders’ rights in deportation appeals could be lawful, writing: “Any statutory provision which takes away the rights of certain classes of individuals altogether would not survive a European Court of Human Rights challenge.”The Independent Human Rights Act Review, which was commissioned by the justice secretary’s predecessor Robert Buckland last year, did not call for the major changes announced.Chair Sir Peter Gross, a former Court of Appeal judge, said its recommendations aimed to improve how the Human Rights Act operates, rather than scrap or replace it. “It is our view that the Human Rights Act works well and has benefited many,” he added.The review made several recommendations, aiming to put UK law centre-stage and increase parliamentary scrutiny of court rulings, but said there was an “overwhelming body of support for retaining” the act.“Detailed arguments in favour of repeal and replacement of the Human Rights Act with a British Bill of Rights were not provided,” added a document published on Tuesday.Critics have said the review was politically motivated, following the government’s loss of numerous judicial reviews and immigration cases on human rights grounds.In July, a separate parliamentary inquiry concluded that there was “absolutely no justification” for the government to change the Human Rights Act.The Joint Committee on Human Rights said the existing law respected parliament and empowered British courts to enforce rights, rather than having to send cases to Strasbourg. 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Boris Johnson’s Covid plan B measures for England have been approved by the Commons, despite almost 100 Conservative MPs rebelling in a major blow to the prime minister’s authority.The introduction of Covid passes for crowded venues — the most contentious element of the plan among Tory backbenchers — was passed by 369 by 126 votes, with Mr Johnson forced to rely on Labour votes to get the measure through Parliament.Despite an eleventh-hour attempt by the prime minister to win over potential rebels in an address to the 1922 committee of Tory MPs, 97 voted against the proposals, marking the biggest revolt of his premiership and far greater than the previous record of 55 MPs who voted against proposals to strengthen tier restrictions in December 2020.The approved changes mean that from Wednesday people will have to demonstrate proof of either two Covid-19 jabs or a negative test to gain entry into nightclubs and settings where large crowds gather, including unseated indoor events with more than 500 people.In a second vote, MPs also retrospectively approved the extension of mandatory face coverings for most indoor venues, including cinemas and theatres by 441 to 41 votes.A change to self isolation rules — dropping the requirement to self-isolate and instead do daily Covid tests for those fully vaccinated people who are contacts of a positive case — was also passed by the Commons without a vote.Minutes after the vote, a senior member of the influential 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, also said that a leadership challenge in the New Year was “on the cards” unless the prime minister unites the party by delivering a “major change in the way he does things”.He said he was “very surprised” by the size of the rebellion, adding it “shows quite a major division within the party”.“I think now the Prime Minister’s really got to think very carefully about how he’s going to reset his performance, to actually govern with a united party because we will know what happens to disunited parties.”He added: “He’s got to realise that he’s got to consult his party properly before bringing these sorts of measures to the Commons.”Asked whether there was now the prospect of a leadership challenge in the new year if the PM did not change his approach, Sir Geoffrey said: “I think that’s got to be on the cards. He’s got to realise that he’s got to change.”Speaking to broadcasters, he said it showed he was “too weak to discharge the basic functions of government” and said the measures would not have gone through without Labour.Asked whether he would call on Boris Johnson to resign, Sir Keir said: “The Prime Minister needs to take a long, hard look at himself and ask himself whether he has the authority to take this country through the pandemic. This is a very significant blow for him.”He added: “I think it’s very important to understand how deep the breach of trust is between the prime minister and his own party.”The vote to approve the mandatory use of Covid passes in England was also branded “disappointing” by the chief executive of of the Night Time Industries Association.Michael Kill said: “It is very disappointing that, after flip flopping on the issue twice, the Government have decided to press ahead with the plans despite no evidence of their impact on transmission of the virus.“This is a slippery path we are going down. I would urge the government to listen to its backbenchers now – this far and no further.”He said the latest restrictions “will jeopardise the survival of businesses in 2022” and called for “urgent additional support now”.He added: “And it goes without saying that if more measures are increased we need a proportionate support package including a return of the furlough scheme.” More

They have had to fight a by-election while repeatedly defending – or at least attempting to mitigate – a prime minister mired in questions of sleaze, rule-breaking and incompetence.Now Tory activists in North Shropshire are increasingly fearful of two more factors above and beyond Boris Johnson’s conduct that may contribute to the party losing this traditionally safe seat on Thursday: omicron and the weather.Local blues are worried that growing concerns about the spread of the Covid-19 variant, along with forecasts of appalling rain, could lead to a historically low turnout.And they reckon that fewer people voting would disproportionately hurt their candidate, Neil Shastri-Hurst – and help the Liberal Democrat candidate, Helen Morgan, secure an astonishing victory here.Roy Aldcroft, the Conservative mayor of Market Drayton and a ward member of the Tory-led Shropshire council, said: “The polling stations will be Covid-secure and I would encourage everyone to exercise their right to vote for the best candidate.“But there are certainly people saying they will probably stay at home because they are disillusioned with politics and with the prime minister. You couple that with omicron and winter weather and it gives people those extra reasons to not make the effort.”That, he reckons, would hurt the Tories more because they are the biggest party here, with more to lose.By rights, the by-election – called after the previous Tory MP, Owen Paterson, resigned amid a lobbying scandal – should have been a blue stroll. The party has a near-23,000 majority and has held the area for pretty much 200 years.Yet, while local activists remain confident of victory, they say the job has been made intractably more difficult by a series of scandals and missteps in Downing Street – most notably the prime minister’s apparent attempts to cover up a potentially illegal staff Christmas party.Now the suggestion that omicron might result in a reduced voter count has left Tories nervously considering the numbers.“By rights, we should have enough support to get over the line,” one activist told The Independent. “The problem is it’s our natural voters who are the ones telling us they might stay away, [while] the opposition vote is energised precisely because they think they can win.”Lib Dem campaigners, however, said they did not agree with the analysis. Because the current majority is so big, traditional Tory voters staying away would do their party no good, they say.“If people want to send this government a message, we actively need them to come out and switch,” a source said. “It’s a mountain we’re climbing and we can do it – but that does require a good turnout.”The yellow-rosette party is now favourite to win the contest with every major bookie, as reported by The Independent on Friday. More