UK Politics

Boris Johnson today refused to accept an offer of resignation from his communications director, reports suggest, despite claims he attended one of the potentially lockdown-breaking Christmas parties held in 10 Downing Street last year.Jack Doyle, then the PM’s press secretary, is alleged to have addressed up to 50 colleagues at the 18 December get-together and even handed out awards to them.A spokesman for the PM said earlier he was “not aware” if Mr Doyle had offered to quit following the allegations, and that he will continue in his post.However, the BBC reported it had been told by two separate sources that the aide did offer to resign and Mr Johnson turned it downAsked if the PM had full confidence in Mr Doyle, the spokesman replied simply: “Yes.”The government has launched a full investigation by cabinet secretary Simon Case into the 18 December party – which allegedly included Secret Santa, cheese, wine and festive games – as well as two other events: a leaving do on 27 November, which Mr Johnson is said to have attended, and a Department for Education (DfE) gathering on 10 December, all last year. Downing Street has refused to comment further on allegations against ministers and other government staff, other than to say the probe is underway to establish all the facts. Dominic Cummings, the PM’s former top aide, tweeted earlier to say Mr Doyle was a “gonner” (sic). He also claimed Mr Johnson “will be thinking” it is smarter to “keep” the so-called spin doctor around for when the findings of Mr Case’s inquiry come in.“Then [Mr Johnson will say], ‘I’m shocked, shocked I tell you to discover there was a party and I was misled’, [and] do a deal with Jack to keep all the wallpaper horror buried,” Mr Cummings said.He added in a later post: “Also there’s lots of pictures of the parties which will inevitably get out. And invite lists beyond No 10, to other departments…”Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer called the PM “unfit for office” and said it was important to “get to the bottom” of what had happened, including whether Covid rules had been broken.Related video: Sobbing Allegra Stratton resigns over No 10 party videoHe also called Mr Doyle’s position into question. Speaking in Hadston, Northumberland, where he was meeting with families affected by Storm Arwen, Sir Keir said: “I think he’s got to look very carefully at his position.“If the information that’s coming out at the moment about attending the party is accurate, then it seems to be pretty obvious that he’s got to consider his position.”It comes after Allegra Stratton, the PM’s former spokesperson, was forced to resign on Wednesday after a leaked video from last year showed her and other colleagues making light of both an apparent Christmas party inside No 10 and the Covid regulations it breached. In the clip, first published by ITV News, Ms Stratton and her colleague Ed Oldfield can be seen practising answering a potential question from journalists about an event seemingly attended by them and others. Mr Johnson’s spokesman has since said the PM maintains full confidence in Mr Oldfield.Asked earlier if Downing Street is still considering throwing a Christmas party this year, the spokesman said there were “no plans” for such an event as the PM focuses on dealing with the omicron variant of Covid.A total of 58,194 new Covid cases were reported in the UK on Friday – the highest number since January. More

Boris Johnson has been warned by Conservative MPs that his leadership could be under serious threat if the party loses next week’s by-election in North Shropshire and worsening poll numbers do not improve.The prime minister is under mounting pressure over the No 10 Christmas party scandal and the refurbishment of his Downing Street flat, after ethics adviser Lord Geidt restarted his investigation into the funding of the redecorations.Tory MPs told The Independent that backbenchers normally supportive of Mr Johnson are now discussing whether or not he should lead the party into the next general election – and say Thursday’s contest in North Shropshire will be key.One senior Conservative MP told The Independent: “If we lost the by-election and Lord Geidt resigns then he would be in huge trouble. A by-election loss will damage the idea of him as an election winner. The public haven’t historically applied the same rules to him – but that is fading away.”The former cabinet minister added: “[Mr Johnson] may have nine lives – more than most politicians – but he is using up a lot of them. If he gets through Christmas and manages to reset in the New Year, he will still be far more fragile when the next crisis comes.”One red wall Tory MP told The Independent: “There is a change in mood. People who had been supportive are now discussing whether we still need him, and whether he’s done what he needed to do for us in terms of Brexit.”The backbencher added: “He might be able to get through the Christmas parties thing by sacking a few people. The flat stuff is bad, but maybe not fatal on its own. It’s a by-election defeat and bad poll numbers into next year that would really rattle everyone and put him under huge pressure.”The red wall MP said Mr Johnson’s opponents in the party could easily gather the 55 signatures required for the powerful 1922 Committee of backbenchers to initiate a vote of no confidence – but they won’t move until they have dozens more MPs fully behind his removal.“I be surprised if a challenge happened quickly,” said the backbencher. “Support for him is ebbing away, but a lot of MPs haven’t really coalesced behind anyone else yet.”The Liberal Democrats are now favourites with every major bookmakers to win the 16 December North Shropshire by-election, sparked after ex-Tory MP Owen Paterson was found to have broken lobbying rules.Mr Johnson’s personal popularity has slumped to an all-time low of -42 as the public lose confidence in the scandal-hit Tory leader, according to a new YouGov poll. Some 66 per cent said they hold a negative opinion of him.And a Focaldata survey for Times Radio on Friday put Labour on 41 per cent – giving Sir Keir Starmer’s party an eight-point lead over the Tories, a day after a Survation poll put Labour six points ahead.In a further blow to his authority, Nusrat Ghani, the vice-chair of the 1922 backbench committee of Conservative MPs, refused to give Mr Johnson her backing and warned: “The mood in parliament is not good.”Describing the investigation by the cabinet secretary Simon Case into a series of alleged festive parties as “absolutely key” to Mr Johnson’s future, Ms Ghani told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Let’s see what the investigation draws out.”Mr Johnson also faces a large rebellion of Tory MPs when his plan B restrictions come before the Commons on Tuesday, after dozens of lockdown sceptics made clear their opposition to the introduction of Covid certification for nightclubs and large events. The new curbs are still expected to pass thanks to Labour support, however.Tory peer Gavin Barwell said his party’s MPs are “definitely” speaking about how to replace Mr Johnson as prime minister. “Boris, more than anyone, knows his position depends on being seen as an electoral asset,” Lord Barwell told Today. “If over time that goes, he really is in trouble.”Dominic Cummings, his former chief aide, claimed there were photos of the Christmas parties that will “inevitably get out” and predicted Mr Johnson would “be gone before the next election … probably summer”.He rubbished the idea that the prime minister could not have been aware of the parties, because the key one – on 18 December – is believed to have happened close to his own office. “To get upstairs, he has to walk past that area where he could see it,” Mr Cummings said in a question-and-answer session on his blog.Pressure over parties held at Downing Street in the run-up to last Christmas stepped up after it emerged that Mr Johnson’s top communications adviser Jack Doyle handed out awards at the gathering on 18 December.No 10 did not deny that Mr Doyle had offered his resignation, after it was reported that the prime minister had refused to accept his departure.To add to the prime minister’s troubles, it emerged on Friday that his ethics adviser Lord Geidt revived an investigation into the financing of his lavish flat refurbishment and was promised he will be given any information he demands.Lord Geidt contacted Downing Street after an Electoral Commission report appeared to show he “misled” the adviser’s own inquiry over when he knew about the financial arrangements.Asked about Mr Johnson’s troubles, former cabinet minister Robert Buckland told BBC’s Newscast: “If I was him looking in the mirror I’d be saying, ‘Surely I can do this better’.” More

The Liberal Democrats are now favourites with every single major bookie to win next week’s North Shropshire by-election.Momentum has swung firmly behind the party’s candidate, Helen Morgan, as the final weekend of campaigning approaches in what is traditionally an ultra-safe Conservative seat.Growing public outrage over a series of government scandals – most notably, the now infamous Downing Street Christmas Party – has seen Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and William Hill all slash their odds on Ms Morgan, a 46-year-old parish councillor, winning the seat off the Tories.She is now the favourite with all four of those, while Betfred and Betway have her and blue candidate Neil Shastri-Hurst as joint favourites.“What’s been in the news this last week, it has made life so difficult,” says Geoff Elner, a local Tory councillor in Shropshire who spent Friday morning campaigning with Dr Shastri-Hurst. “You are trying to distance yourself from events that happen 170 miles away, and it’s wrong. People here are working their butts off to try and do some good but it has not been easy.”Asked how damaging apparent lies told over last year’s alleged Christmas Party had been, the 66-year-old Elner replied: “Everyone of the parties twists the truth somewhere along the line and the Conservatives are certainly high on the list doing that right now.”If the bookies do have it right and the Lib Dems win, it would constitute one of the most stunning by-election results in history.The poll was sparked in November after the seat’s previous Tory MP Owen Paterson resigned following a lobbying scandal. Yet, given he won a near-23,000 majority in 2019, the Conservatives were still expected to romp home here.The area is rural, relatively prosperous and voted for Brexit in 2016. It has been a Tory strong hold for more or less 200 years.Yet the mood in the yellow camp is now one of growing confidence with leader Ed Davey briefly joined the campaign trail on Friday.“We’re feeling very positive,” a campaign source said. “We’ve been going into the real true blue towns the last couple of days and we’ve got former Conservatives switching in their droves while Labour supporters are backing us tactically.”But he added: “It’s still too close to call, though.”The Labour Party remain third favourites with most bookies. More

The UK and the EU will step up their efforts to resolved their post-Brexit row over the Northern Ireland Protocol before Christmas after negotiators failed to reach agreement once again.After another week in the laboured talks on solving the issues thrown up by the deal signed by Boris Johnson, Brexit minister Lord Frost said he and EU Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic had still not reached agreement.The UK chief negotiator said “intensive talks” would continue next week, and he and Mr Sefcovic will double how often they meet “in the hope of making worthwhile progress towards agreed solutions before Christmas”.Reports suggested that Lord Frost’s team had watered down its demand that the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) must be removed from arbitration over protocol issues.But in his statement on Friday, Lord Frost insisted there needed to be “movement on all the difficult issues created by the protocol” – including on the Court of Justice.After Friday’s meeting Mr Sefcovic claimed it was now “crunch time for medicines, with the EU Commission ready to amend EU legislation”. He has previously claimed that Brussels is ready to make unilateral changes to allow medicines to move more easily into Northern Ireland, without any agreement with the UK.Both sides are trying to reach an agreement that would reduce customs paperwork and the number of checks required on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland and ensure a continued free flow of medicines across the Irish Sea.In a statement on social media after Friday’s online meeting with Sefcovic, Lord Frost said they had made “further limited progress on medicines but we have not reached agreement”.He added: “I underlined the need for movement on all the difficult issues created by the protocol, including customs, agri-food rules, subsidy policy, VAT/excise, and governance including the [European] Court of Justice. We will not find a durable solution that does not deal with all these problems.”Earlier this week Mr Johnson again told MPs the protocol must be changes and reiterated his threat to suspend elements of the accord by triggering the Article 16 mechanism – which could spark an ugly trade war – if an agreement cannot be found.Meanwhile, France again threatened to push for EU legal action against Britain if it does not show a “sign of goodwill” in the post-Brexit fishing row by a Friday deadline set by the EU.France’s European affairs minister, Clement Beaune, echoed earlier threats to ask the Commission to launch legal proceedings against the UK if it failed to grant more licences to French fishermen.But he also suggested the talks could be extended past the deadline as long as the UK shows goodwill. “We won’t get all the licences that we have a right to by tonight,” he told France Info radio on Friday.“If the British say today ‘We’ll give you … a few dozen extra licences as a gesture of good faith to show that the dialogue is bearing fruit and we’re interested in continuing,’ we’ll take that into account and make an evaluation with the European Commission and perhaps we’ll continue.”But if Britain refuses to budge on the roughly 100 outstanding licences, France will ask the commission at the weekend to announce the launch of legal proceedings, Mr Beaune added. More

The Conservative Party has a reputation for ruthlessly disposing of its leaders when they are no longer viewed as electoral assets.Even former prime minister Margaret Thatcher, considered one of the party’s greatest-ever leaders, was ousted in 1990 amid concerns over her politically toxic poll tax.Conversations about Tory succession – and who might lead the troops into the next battle – have been taking place long before recent scandals sent Boris Johnson’s approval ratings and poll lead tumbling.For the early part of Johnson’s tenure in No 10 Downing Street, it was perceived wisdom in Westminster that Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, would be next to ascend the Tory throne.But who else is in the running?Lizz Truss, who has undergone somewhat of an epiphany over Brexit, has recently seen her approval ratings soar, with a Conservative Home poll published last month ranking her top among cabinet ministers. The survey is viewed as a good barometer of grassroots support and is keenly watched by those in government.The free-market Conservative, who talks tough on “woke” Britain, was promoted to foreign secretary in the PM’s September reshuffle. The 3 November ConHome poll put Ms Truss’s approval rating at +85.6 – more than 10 points higher than second-placed de-facto Brexit minister, Lord Frost.Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the current international trade secretary, and Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, also ranked in the top five of the survey but neither has been strongly linked to the Tory leadership role.Michael Gove, the new levelling up and housing secretary and Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary and current chair of the Commons health committee, are invariably linked with the top job. Although both are viewed in Tory circles as competent and capable of successfully overseeing a brief, they have had tilts at the leadership and failed.Mr Gove famously stabbed Johnson in the back during the 2016 contest — subsequently won by Theresa May — a move he later described as “political suicide.”What do punters think?”Following the calamitous week that Boris Johnson has had, we have seen plenty of action on the Betfair Exchange’s next prime minister market,” Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom tells The Independent.”Rishi Sunak is the 11/4 favourite take over at Number 10 after Johnson, while Liz Truss has been the biggest mover in the market. The foreign secretary has been backed in from 33/1 earlier in the year to 11/2 now.”Betfair says, over the past few days, the odds on Mr Johnson leaving his job by the end of 2021 have shortened from 149/1 to as low as 15/1. Mr Johnson leaving no 10 in 2022 is proving to be a popular choice too, the firm said, with the odds being slashed from 21/1 to 7/5 in the past seven days.Next Conservative leader after Boris Johnson (latest odds, oddschecker.com)Rishi Sunak – 9/4Liz Truss – 7/2Michael Gove – 13/2Jeremy Hunt – 10Sajid Javid – 14Tom Tugendhat – 25Ben Wallace – 25Boris Johnson exit date2021 – 13/22022 or later – 1/252023 – 3/42024 or later – 15/8 More

Boris Johnson’s approval rating as prime minister has dropped to an all-time low, according to the pollsters YouGov, after a turbulent week for the government on multiple fronts.The pollsters said the prime minister’s net favourability rating now stood at -42 and had fallen 11 points since mid-November, with 66 per cent of the public having an unfavourable opinion of Mr Johnson.The finding comes after a series of self-inflicted wounds on the government’s authority, including the Owen Paterson scandal and outrage over a Christmas party held at No 10 in the winter of 2020 when the rest of the country faced severe Covid restrictions.According to YouGov, the episode appears to have hit the prime minister’s popularity, with just a quarter of respondents (24 per cent) having a positive opinion of him – giving him a net favourability rating of -42.Earlier this week a separate poll found more than half of voters believe Mr Johnson should resign as prime minister over the festive gathering after a cabinet secretary investigation was launched in response to a leaked video of No 10 officials joking about the event.Despite a boost in the Westminster voting intention polls for Labour, however, Sir Keir Starmer has been unable to make significant gains among the public with his own ratings, the pollsters added, with his net favourability changing slightly from -13 to -14.But speaking earlier, the Labour leader challenged Tory MPs to oust Mr Johnson — who he described as “not fit for office” — from No 10, adding: “Are they prepared to go through the degrading of themselves and their party, to go out to the media, have to defend the indefensible for months to come?“Or are they going to actually have the courage now to challenge him and say you’re not fit for office?”“He’s not fit for office and because he’s not fit for office, he won’t resign and the question really is for Tory members of the Cabinet, Tory MPs, to ask themselves are they prepared to put up with this?”Last week, another survey found the prime minister’s popularity among the Tory faithful had taken a hit after weeks of division over a myriad of issues, including scaled-back plans for social care reform, rows over sleaze, and accusations of betrayal over rail plans.The monthly ‘cabinet league table’ survey by Conservative Home showed the prime minister second from bottom in net satisfaction ratings, with -17. The same survey in October had Mr Johnson on +20. More

Tougher Covid restrictions will be imposed if the worst fears about the omicron variant are realised, No 10 says – but declined to say what they will be.Contingency plans, dubbed a ‘Plan C’, have been drawn up by officials which are thought to include the return of table service in pubs and mask-wearing in more settings, in England.Downing Street said it is not “aware” of any document listing the stricter measures being considered, just days after Boris Johnson triggered his Plan B to counter fast-rising omicron cases.But the prime minister’s spokesman said: “We need to keep the characteristics of this variant under review and we would act if necessary.“We have an array, already, of options available to us in terms of what measures we can take to mitigate a growth of any variant or virus,” he said – arguing that is expected of “a responsible government”.However, he added: “There are no plans to go beyond that currently.”The comments came as the spokesman revealed No 10 has scrapped plans for a Christmas party – just days after Mr Johnson said staff parties should go ahead.Downing Street remains rocked by evidence of “illegal” parties a year ago, but the spokesman said it was because of the increasing work on omicron and “the latest data that we’ve got”.No “final decision has been taken on whether to introduce a three-visitor rule in care homes, another move being considered.Meanwhile, Michael Gove, who remains in charge of intergovernmental relations, will chair a meeting of the emergency Cobr meeting later on Friday, to discuss the Covid situation.The first ministers and deputy first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will take part.more follows More

Boris Johnson’s ethics adviser has restarted an investigation into his lavish flat refurbishment and will be given any information he demands, No 10 says.Christopher Geidt contacted Downing Street after an Electoral Commission report appeared to show the prime minister “misled” the adviser’s own inquiry that cleared him of wrongdoing.“We are liaising with Lord Geidt to answer any further questions he may have,“ Mr Johnson’s spokesman said.The adviser “at all times has the ability to access information he needs to make decisions to come to a conclusion,” he added.The move comes after a former head of committee on standards in public life joined opposition parties in demanding fresh probes into the prime minister’s conduct over the £112,000 refit.The Commission’s report revealed Mr Johnson personally asked for more funds for the redecorations, despite claiming – three months later – that he knew nothing about donors funding the work.Lord Geidt’s report, in May, found the prime minister had acted “unwisely” in failing to ask proper questions, but ruled had been no breach of the ministerial code.Meanwhile, the Information Commissioner said the body is investigating why the Cabinet Office claimed WhatsApp messages at the centre of the controversy did not exist.A Freedom of Information request was denied – yet the Commission report revealed the messages were sent by Mr Johnson to Tory donor Lord Brownlow, who helped fund the refurbishment.It is unclear whether Lord Geidt saw the WhatsApp messages when he concluded there was “no evidence” the prime minister was told Lord Brownlow had paid the bills.However, The Independent understands the adviser has sought clarification about information he had already received – rather than seeking any new documentation.There is confidence in Downing Street that they will be able to satisfy the adviser that he was not misled and that he could announce that as early as today.The spokesman said: “I’m not getting into what evidence Lord Geidt specifically has access to,” – while insisting he can see “all relevant information he needs”.He declined to say whether or not Mr Johnson spoke with the adviser directly about his concerns, or whether he had asked him not to resign.The Commission report revealed that – in November 2020 – he “messaged Lord Brownlow via WhatsApp” to ask him to “authorise” further redecorations.Furthermore, in early December, “Lord Brownlow confirmed to the prime minister that he had approved further works”, the watchdog stated.No 10 has denied Mr Johnson lied to Lord Geidt – arguing he had known only that Lord Brownlow was handling the funding, not that he was the source of the money.He had contacted him, in November 2020, because he was the administrator of a blind trust to fund the works – despite the Commission report stating “the trust had not been formed”. More